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With the evolving nature of Super Rugby, it can be confusing to keep up with the particular format from season to season.
The thee-conference format for 2015 and a total of 16 regular competition matches will change in 2016, with the advent of a four-conference format and 18 teams with the addition of another South African team and Japanese and Argentinian sides.
But for 2015, the six teams contesting the finals will comprise the conference winners and the next three teams (referred to as ‘wildcard’ teams) with the highest total number of points, regardless of the conference they are from.
Let’s look at the table after averaging the points for and against for each team over the number of matches (after Round 7) and round them up.
| Team | PF | PA |
| Hurricanes | 28 | 14 |
| Brumbies | 26 | 13 |
| Sharks | 23 | 21 |
| Chiefs | 25 | 18 |
| Highlanders | 23 | 19 |
| Waratahs | 24 | 18 |
| Bulls | 28 | 24 |
| Stormers | 25 | 22 |
| Crusaders | 27 | 22 |
| Lions | 14 | 21 |
| Rebels | 19 | 24 |
| Cheetahs | 22 | 36 |
| Force | 16 | 23 |
| Reds | 9 | 24 |
| Blues | 17 | 24 |
Based on the averaged points for and against, we can see that the top six teams (other than the Sharks) all are on fewer than 20 points defensively.
The Sharks are an anomaly due to the fact that all of the South African conference teams’ points against per match are over 20, with the Sharks simply being the best of a poor defensive conference. There are three or fewer competition points separating the Sharks from the Bulls and the Stormers, so any one of these franchises can end up topping their conference and playing in the quarter finals.
At this stage of the completion however, I do not expect any of the South African teams to be in the final.
The Hurricanes top the table with six wins and no losses, but more importantly their points for and against show that not only are they a great attacking side, with the second-highest amount of points for at 167 and three bonus points, they are equally impressive in defence with the second lowest number of points scored against them at 82, an average of 28 points for and 14 points against per game (on a rounded basis).
The Brumbies have the lowest number of points scored against them at 80, and have secured four bonus points in attack, justifying their current No. 2 position in the table, with four wins from six matches.
The Chiefs are in with a real chance – they have the highest amount of points for with 175, and five wins from seven, so we know they play with the ball. Expect them to be in the mix when the whips are cracking.
The Highlanders are on 23 points for and 19 against. The Waratahs are 24 for and 18 against. These teams will also feature in the Super Rugby finals and at this stage are an even-money bet. But for me, the Waratahs are just starting to look the goods.
Former Super Rugby champions the Crusaders need to lift their game if they are to be a force in 2015. Still a great attacking side, with the fourth highest points for at 162, they are having trouble with their defence, averaging 22 points per game.
As for the rest of the teams, simply put they are buggered.
The Lions have difficulty scoring with only 14 points for on average per game and 21 points against. Three wins and four losses don’t do much for confidence either.
The Rebels have shown promise in 2015 but are still a long way from being finalists, let alone champions; 19 points for and 24 points against on average tell the story.
The Cheetahs’ defence lets them down, with the statistics showing they are leaking an average of 36 points per match while mustering 22 points for. Enough said.
The Force, the Reds and the Blues can kiss 2015 goodbye. The Force average 16 points for per match and 23 against. The Reds come in at a pathetic 9 points for and 24 points against. The Blues are last on the table with no wins and an average of 17 points for and 24 points against.
Defence wins championships, so before you place a bet, look at each team’s defensive record over the coming rounds. At this stage the statistics are telling us it will be a Hurricanes vs Brumbies final.