Friday Night Forecast: West Coast Eagles vs Carlton Blues

By Ryan Buckland / Expert

When I was growing up, Saturday Night Slam Masters was one of my favourite games on the Super Nintendo. It was an arcade game built on the Hollywood Hogan flamboyant era of professional wrestling.

My mates and I would spend hours pitting El Stingray against Biff Slamkovich in titanic battles for pixel supremacy.

Friday afternoon would be filled with anticipation as I got on my bike and sped over to the video store with my two dollar-coins to check it out.

These days, Friday nights remind me of my days playing Saturday Night Slam Masters.

Friday nights are consistently the highest rating game, and teams get really grumpy when they don’t get a game scheduled in on the biggest stage. Ex-bossman Andrew Demitreou once called Friday night footy a reward for good performance. More often than not, it’s the best teams or the ones with the most compelling storylines that get the Friday, 7:20pm time slot, and more often than not the games deliver.

Last season, Friday night games were on average a goal closer in final margin, a few points higher-scoring, and saw more games as a share of the total decided by less than three kicks.

What’s this got to do with anything? Well, the guys at The Roar have green lit a trial of a new piece I’m calling Friday Night Forecast.

It’s really just a preview of Friday’s game, what’s on the line, and who’s going to win. No 90s video game wrestling, unfortunately. We’ll see how we go.

West Coast Eagles vs Carlton Blues
Two teams enter 0-1, one will leave 0-2. But both teams have more than a Round 2 record at stake.

Carlton were woeful against the Tigers last Thursday after quarter time, and it was in no small measure caused by the luckless Dale Thomas’ untimely shoulder dislocation.

Thomas lined up at half forward, and would have given the Blues the forward-of-centre spark they sorely lacked from the second quarter onwards. Clem Smith came on and was shuffled to a forward tagging role against Bachar Houli, and that was pretty much it. Houli and Alex Rance played a masterful game in the back half and didn’t give the Blues a chance.

Carlton’s midfield group was largely ineffectual, with a suddenly spry Chris Judd (21) and coming-into-his-prime Bryce Gibbs (26) the only two receiving pass marks.

All of a sudden, we’re talking about whether Mick Malthouse will be coaching the side come 2016, and debating whether Carlton are five or 10 years away from contending for a premiership. The fan-base is restless.

They’re up against another one of footy’s least-tolerant-of-mediocrity fan-bases in West Coast, who were overwhelmed by the Western Bulldogs last Saturday.

The Dogs managed to stick an incredible 94 tackles (West Coast laid 76 mind you), with two players cracking double digits. The pressure and intensity of the contest was amps more than anyone expected.

It was a 10-point contest, but it really should’ve been more: West Coast had just 17 scoring shots on 41 inside 50s, compared to 27 scoring shots on 58 inside 50s to their opponents.

It was Jeremy ‘Superman’ McGovern (12 marks and 26 disposals as the lone tall defender) who held up West Coast’s depleted defensive line and stopped what should’ve been a pantsing of the highest order. All of a sudden, the blowtorch has been applied to the Eagles paceless midfield group.

They have a chance to respond this week against another of the slower sides in the competition – expect them to do so.

Not comfortably mind you: neither side really screams high-powered offence in the way the top handful do. Sure, West Coast have Josh Kennedy and Mark LeCras, but when your midfield can’t deliver effectively it’s not a real advantage.

Expect a low-scoring, high-possession affair – West Coast and Carlton were two of the six sides that didn’t crack 200 kicks last weekend, while West Coast was the only side that had a negative kick-handball differential.

West Coast by 15 points.

That’s my Friday Night Forecast. What’s yours?

The Crowd Says:

2015-04-13T00:10:30+00:00

TheCunningLinguistic

Guest


Nice comeback, Don! You made the big call, and it came good- kudos!

2015-04-13T00:03:56+00:00

TheCunningLinguistic

Guest


Very good prediction, Don! I thought West Coast would win, but not by that much. Geez, Carlton are in a spot of bother, no?!

2015-04-11T07:46:49+00:00

jax

Guest


Yeah Sheppard has some pace. Not Hill or Yeo type pace but he's quicker than a lot. All of the guys I mentioned (plus Lucas who also has pace) can play in the midfield but they aren't at the moment but you will see them spend more time there in future years, especially Yeo who was recruited to be a WC mid and he's still only 21 years of age, lot's of upside with that boy and he breaks lines. I mentioned Rich because he was a die-hard WC fan growing up and he was gutted when WC overlooked him in the draft, I didn't mention him for this pace. There are a lot of WA boys like him playing for other teams and when WC starts playing regular finals in the next year or two I can see a few of them thinking about coming home, it's only natural. My point is that things can change very quickly with free-agency and WC has a much better list than people think. The learning process I referred to is multifaceted. WC aren't going to contend for Top 4 for a few years yet but they are heading in the right direction. They are building a team that will challenge in the years ahead and this is some of the stuff they are learning e.g. new coaches and new game plan for starters and one that Simmo brought with him from Hawthorn. Nic & Lycett learning to play without Cox. 9 kids under the age of 22 or 23 playing against the Blues last night. Players like Yeo, Sheppard, McGovern and the rest of the makeshift backline getting exposure they wouldn't have got if Ezy and Brown weren't injured is also a learning opportunity and Rosa shutting down a red-hot Judd at his first attempt at tagging is definitely an example of Rosa learning something. Learning to play 4 quarters is another thing that they are trying to learn. They have are all getting drilled on how to play more than one position. It's a work in progress and every game and training session is a learning opportunity. Bennell played 19 games last year with 83% game time and you say you haven't seen much of him, are you serious? With all due respect, that means you rarely watch WC play which means you might not know as much as you think you do and then you wonder why I call you out for some of things that you say? I've seen you calling for WC to trade Priddis for years and then he wins a Brownlow so I'm not going to apologise for challenging you because I told you he was a gun years ago but you just couldn't see it and not much has changed I'm afraid. We all have an opinion and you are entitled to yours as much as the next guy. My patience is thin after reading some of the rubbish that people posted about WC on here over the pre-season so I will continue to call you (and others) out when I believe you are wrong and you can call me out when I am wrong if you like. I have a particular disdain for people with limited knowledge of WC calling themselves fans and bagging the team, like you. Bag them as often as you want when it's warranted as i have no issue with that but when you've got it totally wrong you should expect to be challenged on it. I said all that I needed to say about WC many weeks ago and it's there in B&W for all to see. I see nothing after R2 that would make me change my mind about where WC is at. Barring the injuries to Ezy & Brown it's gone pretty much as I expected but I did expect them to beat the Doggies. "and this is a gem…”When you have a structure and game plan that is based on winning the ball and then controlling it through precise delivery…etc etc….” I can only thank you for enlightening me about Hawthorns game plan.. LOL" If you watched WC play you would see that is exactly what they are trying to emulate and they are doing a pretty fine job of it for such a young team. Enough said, let's just agree to disagree shall we.

2015-04-11T05:37:07+00:00

Lroy

Guest


I didn't say Yeo, Sheppard or Bennel lacked pace, I suggest you re read what I wrote, but since you raised it... Sheppard has pace??? are we talking about the same bloke?? Hes an honest hardworking footballer who I like in the side. Pacy?? Reference to Daniel Rich??.... must have missed something, thought he plays for the Lions and he isn't particularly quick either. Guess we will have to agree to disagree on what ''pace means''. Yeo is quick, sure, hes a backman, whats your point? Bennel I haven't seen much of so Ill take your word for it. Are you playing this '' I get points for disproving your opinion '' game that some punters on the roar like to indulge in? Just in case your not aware; Your opinion is your opinion, nothing more nothing less.. I don't care what your opinion is, so no need to mention me in any more of your posts.. ;-) Part of the learning process?? Masten and Rosa have been at the club for nearly ten years... what more are they going to learn?? and this is a gem...''When you have a structure and game plan that is based on winning the ball and then controlling it through precise delivery...etc etc....'' I can only thank you for enlightening me about Hawthorns game plan.. LOL

2015-04-11T05:16:44+00:00

Tom from Perth

Guest


Yep. Thankfully I tipped them.

2015-04-11T05:15:45+00:00

Tom from Perth

Guest


Haha nice one.

2015-04-11T05:09:44+00:00

Lroy

Guest


dude, from memory the mainstay of their midfield, Priddis, Masten Rosa all got plenty of football. Wellingham was injured as was Yeo and Selwood .... cant remember of the top of my head who was in and out each week. To me, Rosa and Masten have to become taggers or backpocket players, I don't see the Eagles getting enough drive from either of them to justify their current positions in the midfield. Im not sure what injuries to Chris Judd and other Carlton players has to do with that?? Beating Carlton in some ways is neither here nor there... they aren't the yardstick of the comp.. we should win at home, but they upset us last year, it happens. Port, Hawks, Dockers, Swans will be the real test. So lets see.

2015-04-11T03:46:11+00:00

jax

Guest


how's your tipping going so far this round slane? WC have been groomed to be a versatile team aka hawks style since Simmo arrived and they will only get better in the years to come. I can see a forward line of Kennedy, LeCras, Darling, Cripps, Lamb and McGovern causing all sorts of headaches for opposition teams in the years ahead.

2015-04-11T03:33:54+00:00

jax

Guest


no idea again I'm afraid Lroy. Yeo, Sheppard, Bennell for example all have pace and they were all recruited in the last few years and they are young. if the opposition doesn't have the ball it makes it difficult for them to expose WC on the outside. When you have a structure and game plan that is based on winning the ball and then controlling it through precise delivery it also makes it difficult for them to be exposed. Sure, it would be nice to have a few quicker players but Simmo is doing a great job of getting the best out of what he has got. They will get exposed at times this year but that's just part of their learning and development for the future. As WC pushes higher up the ladder in the next few years I am expecting to see some quality WA boys consider coming back home to WA because WC's window will begin to open e.g. Rich, Bennell, Matera, O'Meara and Coniglio just to name a few. Not all of them will come home and maybe none of the ones that i have named will but there is a plethora of quality WA bred players in the league and WC will only need to pinch a few of them to top up their developing and talented list.

2015-04-11T03:15:25+00:00

jax

Guest


Darren, you're the one that needs the reality check. I hope that the penny has started to drop for you.

2015-04-11T03:01:29+00:00

jax

Guest


Exactly Don and that's the improvement that you and I both said would come from WC during the pre-season predictions while most scribes and pundits on here said they couldn't see where that improvement would come from. I said that they were versatile and that players could play multiple roles and Rosa for example proved that tonight. He was trained in tagging during the pre-season to cover for Selwood & Hutchings who have both been injured and didn't he do a number on Judd when given an opportunity. It's early days for this young list and we will have a much better idea where they sit after they play Freo next week. I'm not expecting them to win but I am expecting a very competitive showing which considering their injuries is all that I'm looking for.

2015-04-11T02:51:35+00:00

jax

Guest


well you got that completely wrong didn't you David!

2015-04-10T23:09:39+00:00

Don Freo

Guest


Geez, my sky is red most sunsets...usually through a wine on the balcony!

2015-04-10T17:29:54+00:00

jax

Guest


catch up with program. There is a lot to like about WC, maybe not this year but it's not far away.

2015-04-10T17:27:37+00:00

jax

Guest


They clearly can Tom

2015-04-10T17:19:05+00:00

Tom from Perth

Guest


Dunno Don. Whenever the last time the sky was red.

2015-04-10T17:18:18+00:00

Tom from Perth

Guest


Good tip Don. Whitewash.

2015-04-10T16:54:35+00:00

jax

Guest


I agree on all points Don and Rosa will get zero votes and bugger all Champion Data or media award points after playing a crucial role in turning the game for WC tonight by shutting down Judd. Some people just can't see past the end of their stat sheet. Rosa has been in and out due to injury for 2-3 years. I'd like to see him tag again. Macca, your guys didn't pay respect to your jumper or guys like Priddis, Sheed (contested gun), Shuey, Gaff, Masten, Sheppard, Cripps, Yeo et al and you got found out. The Doggies would have smashed you by the same margin. The Blues have moire things to worry about than WC.

2015-04-10T16:13:38+00:00

Don Freo

Guest


I think NicNat challenged Kennedy and Priddis for best on field. A full pre-season makes a big difference. What doesn't show up in stats are the 15 to 20 tap ons, knock outs and passage clearances. They haven't got a stat for that. The only ruckman who matches him there is Sandi...and very few notice him either. If you don't get marks, kicks and handballs all the time, apparently you are no good. If every club had a choice of any ruckman in the comp, all clubs would go for Sandi and NicNat as first two...yet so many fans wouldn't and so many commentators wouldn't. Why? Because Champion Data doesn't acknowledge footy skills.

2015-04-10T16:06:28+00:00

jax

Guest


NicNat and Lycett have been groomed as ruck-midfielders and don't forget Sinclair and McInness. Their mentor since Day 1 of their careers has been Dean Cox and now he is their ruck coach. He's the guy that invented that style of rucking and he's been teaching his pupils for years and we all saw just a little a bit of what that might mean tonight. They are young but there is a lot to like. Nic's a sublime tap ruckman and will probably go down as the best ever when his career ends, barring injury. He needs to string games together now.

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