We’re only two weeks into the 2015 season and already some big calls have been made.
Gold Coast believed their own hype and are overrated, Nat Fyfe is a sure thing for the Brownlow, North Melbourne aren’t hungry enough, and Mick Malthouse’s contract won’t be extended beyond 2015.
All are big statements. Some will prove foolish, but some may prove correct.
Did anyone pick the Swans to be grand finalists after three consecutive opening round losses last year? Did anyone stake their claim on Matthew Priddis to win the Brownlow? Or on Tom Boyd leaving Greater Western Sydney for the Western Bulldogs?
Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
But we wouldn’t be entering the third round of the 2015 home-and-away season without punters making their predictions on the fortunes of clubs, players and coaches because, this early into the season, no prediction can be wholly right or wholly wrong.
How idyllic.
Now this punter would like to add another big call to that list: Patrick Dangerfield will re-sign with Adelaide before the end of the season.
Two week ago, I wrote about the out-of-contract Alex Rance and whether or not he would remain at Richmond beyond 2015. Essentially, whether or not the All-Australian defender re-signs with the Tigers will be contingent on Richmond’s season and whether or not they can make the finals.
As Carlton coach Malthouse said after West Coast’s demolition of his team last Friday in Perth, it is difficult for clubs hovering outside the eight to entice big-name recruits through free agency. It is undoubtedly just as hard for clubs who are not genuine premiership contenders to hold on to that same talent.
That is the trouble the Tigers now face with Rance and the Crows face with Dangerfield, although the latter has been at the centre of the free agency debate for over a season.
Even before Adelaide finished a disappointing 10th in 2014 and sacked Brenton Sanderson, questions were flying regarding Dangerfield’s tenure at the Crows and whether or not he was committed to the club beyond his current contractual obligations, which had him tied to the club until the end of 2015.
Now into that final year, the questions of Dangerfield are ubiquitous, so much so that coach Phil Walsh refused to respond to Jonathon Brown’s question regarding the key midfielder’s contract on Fox Footy’s On The Couch.
Dangerfield, a Victorian boy who grew up on the Surf Coast, has been linked to Geelong from the day talk of him leaving the Crows as a free agent began.
After the Cats won six more games than Adelaide in 2014 and finished third at the end of the home-and-away season, before bowing out in straight sets to Hawthorn and then North Melbourne in the finals, it seemed inevitable that Dangerfield would move south.
Despite their disappointing finals campaign, the Cats had an incredibly successful season – in fact, the only thing separating Geelong from Hawthorn and Sydney by the end of Round 23 was percentage.
What an enticing predicament for Dangerfield. Why wouldn’t he want to play for one of the most successful teams of the last decade, a team based only 55 minutes from his home town of Moggs Creek?
And what an enticing predicament for Geelong. One of the most talented midfielders in the competition, looking for a trade back to Victoria in order to chase the ultimate success.
At least, that’s how things read at the end of last year. But with a new coach, a new captain and a new lease on life, the Adelaide Crows are the form team of the competition. Geelong, on the other hand, are 0-2 after being totally dismantled by Hawthorn and Fremantle – two sides they would like to think of as their contemporaries.
With Geelong seemingly in decline and Adelaide on the rise, it is now up to Dangerfield to decide whether a premiership with the Crows is more of a realistic chance than with the Cats. While we’re only two games into the season, the answer is overwhelmingly in favour of Adelaide.
The Cats look great on paper, but the reality is their best players are all past their prime, while their youngsters are all good, but a long way off their predecessors.
Adelaide, conversely, have a group of young and old talent that looks set to shake up the competition come September. And that’s why Dangerfield will re-sign with the club that has moulded him into the champion that he is today.
Don’t expect Geelong to go quietly, however. With their midfield more insipid than it has been in recent memory, the Cats will make every attempt possible to lure Dangerfield back to his roots on the Surf Coast.
But the lure of a premiership must mean more. Home can wait.
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Now that was a quick change of mind!
