We’re only two weeks into the 2015 season and already some big calls have been made.
Gold Coast believed their own hype and are overrated, Nat Fyfe is a sure thing for the Brownlow, North Melbourne aren’t hungry enough, and Mick Malthouse’s contract won’t be extended beyond 2015.
All are big statements. Some will prove foolish, but some may prove correct.
Did anyone pick the Swans to be grand finalists after three consecutive opening round losses last year? Did anyone stake their claim on Matthew Priddis to win the Brownlow? Or on Tom Boyd leaving Greater Western Sydney for the Western Bulldogs?
Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
But we wouldn’t be entering the third round of the 2015 home-and-away season without punters making their predictions on the fortunes of clubs, players and coaches because, this early into the season, no prediction can be wholly right or wholly wrong.
How idyllic.
Now this punter would like to add another big call to that list: Patrick Dangerfield will re-sign with Adelaide before the end of the season.
Two week ago, I wrote about the out-of-contract Alex Rance and whether or not he would remain at Richmond beyond 2015. Essentially, whether or not the All-Australian defender re-signs with the Tigers will be contingent on Richmond’s season and whether or not they can make the finals.
As Carlton coach Malthouse said after West Coast’s demolition of his team last Friday in Perth, it is difficult for clubs hovering outside the eight to entice big-name recruits through free agency. It is undoubtedly just as hard for clubs who are not genuine premiership contenders to hold on to that same talent.
That is the trouble the Tigers now face with Rance and the Crows face with Dangerfield, although the latter has been at the centre of the free agency debate for over a season.
Even before Adelaide finished a disappointing 10th in 2014 and sacked Brenton Sanderson, questions were flying regarding Dangerfield’s tenure at the Crows and whether or not he was committed to the club beyond his current contractual obligations, which had him tied to the club until the end of 2015.
Now into that final year, the questions of Dangerfield are ubiquitous, so much so that coach Phil Walsh refused to respond to Jonathon Brown’s question regarding the key midfielder’s contract on Fox Footy’s On The Couch.
Dangerfield, a Victorian boy who grew up on the Surf Coast, has been linked to Geelong from the day talk of him leaving the Crows as a free agent began.
After the Cats won six more games than Adelaide in 2014 and finished third at the end of the home-and-away season, before bowing out in straight sets to Hawthorn and then North Melbourne in the finals, it seemed inevitable that Dangerfield would move south.
Despite their disappointing finals campaign, the Cats had an incredibly successful season – in fact, the only thing separating Geelong from Hawthorn and Sydney by the end of Round 23 was percentage.
What an enticing predicament for Dangerfield. Why wouldn’t he want to play for one of the most successful teams of the last decade, a team based only 55 minutes from his home town of Moggs Creek?
And what an enticing predicament for Geelong. One of the most talented midfielders in the competition, looking for a trade back to Victoria in order to chase the ultimate success.
At least, that’s how things read at the end of last year. But with a new coach, a new captain and a new lease on life, the Adelaide Crows are the form team of the competition. Geelong, on the other hand, are 0-2 after being totally dismantled by Hawthorn and Fremantle – two sides they would like to think of as their contemporaries.
With Geelong seemingly in decline and Adelaide on the rise, it is now up to Dangerfield to decide whether a premiership with the Crows is more of a realistic chance than with the Cats. While we’re only two games into the season, the answer is overwhelmingly in favour of Adelaide.
The Cats look great on paper, but the reality is their best players are all past their prime, while their youngsters are all good, but a long way off their predecessors.
Adelaide, conversely, have a group of young and old talent that looks set to shake up the competition come September. And that’s why Dangerfield will re-sign with the club that has moulded him into the champion that he is today.
Don’t expect Geelong to go quietly, however. With their midfield more insipid than it has been in recent memory, the Cats will make every attempt possible to lure Dangerfield back to his roots on the Surf Coast.
But the lure of a premiership must mean more. Home can wait.
Rocky Boy
Guest
Having the prospect of Selwood and Danger in the same midfield is very exciting... However how about the cats look into getting a decent ruckman to help them out
Mark
Guest
Sydney actually lost the first two, beat Adelaide in round three then lost to North the following round.
stevedeanski
Roar Pro
Good points, I hope you're right Sarah! If he does decide to go, then the crows have that final lifeline of being able to match any offer - which no other club has done yet for a restricted free agent. While we all hope it doesn't come to this, there is a first time for eveything and I think the crows would have no choice but to do so. He's simply too important.
RTruth
Guest
An interesting article. Other things not mentioned, but may be equally as important to Dangerfield's decision making could be: - When Adelaide drafted Dangerfield, they allowed him to stay home for the first 12 months of his contract in order to complete his year 12. The Dangerfield's may see this as a tremendous act of good faith, with Adelaide allowing flexibility to finish his schooling in his home state. - Financial interests - Dangerfield has recently bought into the Alma Hotel in Norwood with Sloane and Walker. Roo is also a part owner. - Salary. Adelaide should have plenty of room in its salary cap to afford Dangerfield's salary demands. My 2 cents anyway, I think (hope) he will stay.
dc
Guest
gary ablett going back to geelong would open the door for the suns to make a huge offer to dangers, plus the afl would prob top it up as an ambassador role like ablett had for around double the cash he could get anywhere else. The suns have already mentioned this possibility,that type of money its very tempting for any young gun
Strummer Jones
Roar Rookie
Maybe this story will end like Franklin and Ross Lyon i.e. he'll move to a club that no one predicted. Therefore, I say he'll move to Essendon next year I have at least a 5.5% chance of being correct.
Lamby
Roar Rookie
"Adelaide, conversely, have a group of young and old talent" I don't think there is much 'old' talent at the Crows. The oldest bloke playing last weekend was Betts and Van Berlo at 28. The blokes down the spine are: 23 (Hartigan) 23 (Talia) 25 (Dangerfield) 24 (Tex) 26 (Jenkins) - that looks to me a group of players that will mature nicely together over the next few years!
Ryan Buckland
Expert
The premise of this is bang on the money. It goes to what I was talking about with Fremantle and North Melbourne before the season started: in the AFL, there is so much printed that is based mostly in that it is a good yarn. Dangerfield is a Victorian lad, grew up near Geelong, so that means he -must- want to head home. The whole lure of premierships and that kind of thing was again a nice narrative, given where his suitors respectively finished on the ladder last season. Come round two, the narrative has flipped. But your take is based on hard evidence, not just conjecture. Great stuff.
Sarah Olle
Expert
As I said, it's pretty early to be making this call! But I don't think merely going "home" would be enough of an enticement for Dangerfield. Surely he wants to be part of a premiership winning team and surely Geelong's window has now closed?
Sarah Olle
Expert
I think they'd work beautifully together! Although after today's revelations that Geelong have contacted Gary Ablett's management, it could be Ablett and Selwood playing in the middle for Geelong next season. If Dangerfield stays at the Crows, Geelong may make a big play to bring Ablett back to the club to add some much needed class in the midfield. Watch this space.
Ryman White
Editor
You make a good point here Sarah. A combination of Adelaide doing as well as possible and Geelong (for Adelaide's sake) doing as poorly as possible will certainly play on Danger's decision. If Geelong's premiership window does close this year, there would be little sense making the move (you'd think!). Adelaide's window could just be slamming open. It's funny really, two weeks ago I was sure he would leave. I still think he's on that side of the fence. But there is certainly hope to keep him. Success, along with a coach that seems impossible not to hold high respect for could be enough. I hope so. Assuming it is all actually all about premierships...
Franko
Guest
No mention of Aish in here...? He is critical to the Dangerfield move. The other question to ask is, can Dangerfield and Selwood play in the same side. You sense they'd either be a dynamic duo or get in each others way.