Jameis Winston brings talent and risk to NFL Draft

With Jameis Winston looking like the easy number one pick in the 2015 NFL draft, it seems like the league is set to once again prove that talent trumps any off-field issues. Even if one of those issues could be the worst imaginable.

We shouldn’t be surprised that the Florida State alum will most likely be selected first overall by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on April 30, despite the risks. He ticks all the boxes.

Winston is 6’4”, 231 pounds, in possession of a big arm, and boasts good downfield vision and pocket presence.

His size will help him break tackles and avoid injuries, and his competitiveness and leadership qualities will keep him from folding under the harsh NFL pressure.

Even his football IQ seems sky-high, and this offseason has demonstrated a willingness to study and improve.

All of the above makes NFL teams salivate, and in their quest to find the ideal pro-ready quarterback, they almost have the complete package in Winston.

His apparent value is reflected in many NFL analysis mock drafts, including Peter King, Bucky Brooks, and Daniel Jeremiah.

Much of the praise is deserved. Winston is easily the most pro-ready quarterback in the draft, and potentially the best quarterback since Andrew Luck, if not for the numerous and incredibly troubling off-field issues.

Like many college stars, Winston has got himself into some trouble during his time in school. Two instances of shoplifting resulted in an adult civil citation and community service, and a public outburst on campus resulted in a one-game suspension.

These have been eagerly explained away by NFL commentators and personnel as simple acts of immaturity. However, one other big issue is much harder to view as simple youthful stupidity.

I am, of course, talking about the off-campus rape allegation that was either bungled (if you’re being generous) or deliberately obstructed (if you’re being honest) by both Florida State and the Tallahassee Police.

The alleged rape in question was reported to the Tallahassee Police Department in December 2012 by a fellow Florida State student, and Winston was identified in January 2013. By December 2013, the investigation was closed with no charges, the state attorney citing a lack of evidence.

The investigation has since come under intense criticism from both the sports and news media. The New York Times took the police to task, pointing out that they didn’t obtain a DNA sample when the player was identified, didn’t bother interviewing Winston until two weeks later, failed to identify witnesses, and finally saw key evidence (such as a reported video of the rape) vanish.

Fox Sports also took aim, going so far to say that the investigation was deliberately hampered with by the university, and pointing out that the school’s athletics administrators (and Winston’s lawyers) got a hold of the police report four days before the state attorney, William Meggs, could be notified to begin his own investigation. As a result, Meggs told Fox Sports he was handicapped by both the school and local police from the start, resulting in him declining to bring charges.

All of this should be considered more than a simple ‘red flag’ for an NFL scout.

It may be incredibly unfair to judge the young quarterback for an accusation that ultimately didn’t lead to charges – although I should point out that a second woman may yet step forward as either part of the first accuser’s suit or her own – but the questions associated with the investigation are valid, and they add to an already troubled narrative for Winston.

How do NFL scouts judge this kind of risk? How do you evaluate a clearly immature player who might also be a rapist?

Honestly, it might not even matter. Even if the coming civil suit the victim is filing against the college becomes a distraction for Winston and his future NFL team, it probably won’t change much.

Winston, by measurables and talent alone, is the best quarterback in the NFL draft. Teams have little patience to develop young players these days, and want a pro-ready quarterback now. Winston fits the bill.

At best, Winston’s issues put him in the ‘Johnny Football’ range. At worst, he’s something far more terrible. Either way, it seems like it’ll be business as usual for the NFL.

The league has a habit of wilful ignorance when it comes to the misdeeds of their showcase players, and Winston is the very definition of the next big thing. His PR turnaround this offseason has been spectacular, with the NFL media fawning over his football smarts, passion, talent, and size.

I should point out that not all NFL personnel are head-over-heals for him. There have been reports of some scouts having genuine concerns about his impact on the organisation should be slip up again. And he is considered to be the most investigated player in NFL draft history, so teams are clearly doing their homework.

However the majority are all-in on Winston. Whatever the risks.