NFL Draft No. 1: Winston or Mariota?

The 2015 NFL Draft kicks-off Thursday night and the big question of this year’s draft surrounds who will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers draft as number 1 overall.

It is down to two: Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota. The consensus is that the Bucs are going to take a quarterback as number 1, but the jury is still out on which one of the two that will be.

The Bucs are in a division that arguably has the deepest quarterback depth of any NFL division. Tampa has to deal with the likes of Cam Newton, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan on a yearly basis.

Although there are many questions regarding Mariota’s ability to transition into an NFL system and over Winston’s discipline and personality, both players would be significant upgrades over Tampa’s current quarterback duo of Mike Glennon and Seth Lobato.

After parting ways with Josh McGown at the end of last season, Tampa have made it clear that they are in search of a quarterback. Unless the Bucs trade their pick and move down or try and lure an established NFL quarterback to Florida, they’re going to pick either Winston or Mariota.

The dilemma of choosing Winston or Mariota draws similarities to the 2012 draft when the Colts were forced to choose between Stanford’s Andrew Luck and Baylor’s Robert Griffin III.

Although both Luck and Griffin would no doubt have been number 1 picks in this draft, the same nit-picking, character analysis took place. Put in simplest terms possible, Jameis Winston is the better NFL prospect of the two.

He’s got a bigger frame, a bigger arm, can make all the NFL throws and plays in an NFL-style system that he has studied for the past three years.

Mariota on the other hand is a better athlete with better escapability and pocket awareness, but does not have the same arm strength and struggles with reading progressions.

Jameis Winston is the NFL-ready quarterback physically, but Marcus Mariota is the much safer bet mentally.

All the physical aspects mentioned of Winston are reminiscent of the hype and description surrounding Jamarcus Russell in 2007. Like Winston, Russell too had the arm strength, the ability to make all the throws and had an NFL frame – but was without a doubt was one of the laziest first overall picks in NFL history and was the quintessential NFL bust that the Oakland Raiders are still paying for today.

The issues surrounding Winston aren’t around his work ethic – he has been lauded by many as an extremely hard worker – the issues with Winston are behavioural. Is this 21-year-old mentally mature enough to be given the keys of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

No.

Although Winston is saying all the right things publicly, his chequered past will no doubt have an impact on Tampa’s decision. From stealing crab legs, to yelling obscenities in the FSU student union, to a sexual assault case, Winston carries more baggage than most prospects in a league that has a low tolerance for off-field misconduct.

If the Bucs are satisfied that Winston has put his past behind him, then he will be the 2015 number 1 overall draft pick, but if they aren’t, it opens up a range of possibilities with Mariota going number 1 a genuine option.

On paper, it’s an easy choice, take Winston number 1. He’s the better prospect. In reality though it’s not quite as straightforward as NFL teams place a huge emphasis on branding and on and off-field character.

If the mental risk pays off you get Dez Bryant, if it doesn’t your stuck with Justin Blackmon. Tampa Bay general manager Jason Licht’s tenure in Tampa will largely depend on the success he has in this year’s draft, with the Bucs number 1 pick having a significant impact on that success.

If Tampa get it right they have the possibility of being a realistic playoff contender in the space of one season, if they get it wrong Licht could be looking for another career.