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Inside 50s leading to bags of goals in 2015

Roar Pro
29th April, 2015
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The first month of football in season 2015 is complete, and with it come many questions surrounding the relevance of certain teams and their role in the season to come.

What hasn’t been discussed very much, is the increased amount of dominant individual performances, particularly those of which a player manages to kick a bag of six goals, or more in a game.

This year already, we have seen an astounding number of six players manage this feat of six goals or more in a single performance. Those players are Taylor Walker (6 goals, 5 behinds), Josh J Kennedy (10 goals, 1 behind), Joshua Bruce (6 goals, 1 behind), Jarrad Waite (7 goals, 1 behind), Jarryd Roughead (7 goals, 3 behinds) and Jake Stringer (6 goals, 2 behinds).

Just four rounds into the 23-round season, barely 18 per cent of the way through the season, we have already had half of the number of players who achieved this feat in 2014 and 2013 reach the figure. Both of those were seasons where 12 players managed to kick six or more in a single game during the season.

This points toward a year where we may see more instances of dominant goal-kicking hauls, and if it keeps up at this rate ti should smash the number we’ve seen in previous seasons. Last year’s 12 players (who kicked six or more at least once) combined for 21 hauls over over six with Schulz, Franklin and Kennedy leading the way. While in 2013, 12 players combined for 16 occasions with Schulz yet again, leading the way.

If we rewind even further to the 2012 season, 13 players contributed to the total of 24 occasions of which we observed six goals kicked by an individual. Pavlich, (Jack) Riewoldt and Hawkins lead that list in 2012.

Looking back on previous seasons bought something to my attention; we haven’t seen previous leaders in Schulz, Franklin, Pavlich, (Jack) Riewoldt and Hawkins tally a ‘6’ in the ‘G’ column this season.

Instead we have witnessed exciting talent and former number five draft pick Jake Stringer and St Kilda’s Josh Bruce kick six for the first time in their careers, showcasing a new breed of goal kicking talent this season. Since 2012 it has only really been Jeremy Cameron who has done this as a younger player.

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While this points towards the number of players sky-rocketing, once our usual dominant forwards start taking games by the scruff of the neck 2015 should well and truly overtake the tallies of previous seasons. The six times we’ve seen this occur this year already accounts for 37.5 per cent of 2013’s total occasions, and 28.5p er cent of 2014’s. And we still have a long way to go this season.

But the more important question is; why?

Ryan Buckland mentioned in his article Are Essendon the real deal? The stats say yes! that the points per game is actually slightly down from 86.9 to 86.5 from last year to this year.

So despite more dominant goal-kicking performances early on, teams are not scoring more, and it is not a by-product of a rise in the league average scoring-wise.

But, a stat that is up is inside 50s. The ball is being sent into goalkicking territory more often then in previous seasons, up from 50.6 and 50.2 entries per team in 2013 and 2014, to 52.3 entries per team in 2015.

More inside 50s, more pressure on the defenders, mainly those marking the key forwards who, as usual, dominate these goalkicking lists, and thus more chances to kick goals on them with more opportunity. It’s simple logic, and the stats can back it up.

When Tex kicked six goals in Round 1, Adelaide had 63 inside 50s, up from their team average of 58.3 this season.

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In Round 2, Josh Bruce kicked six goals with the help of 54 inside 50s, above St Kilda’s average of 49. Jarrad Waite’s seven goals came off the back of 58 inside 50s, in comparison to North’s average of 52.

While more inside 50s hasn’t equated into larger team scores, it has resulted in more opportunities to take advantage of, and the more scoring opportunities, the more pressured and shaky the defence will be.

The reason behind there being more inside 50s, in my opinion, stems from the harsher decisions that umpires are making around contests, particularly in regards to the holding the ball rule.

The quicker a decision is made, less ‘rolling mauls’, and more free-flowing football with more forward 50 entries. Whether you like the new interpretation or hate it, we may be able to put down more dominant goal-kicking performances as a by-product of this change in umpiring.

There are few things more exciting in football than seeing a player take you back to the old days as best they can in modern day football and kick a bag of six plus, and it is happening far more regularly this season, and I have a feeling we’ll be seeing a few more with Franklin, Schulz, Jack Riewoldt and co. yet to hit the mark.

Amidst the controversy of Alastair Clarkson and several race involved incidents, I think we should all be focusing on the game itself, and the new excitement that presents itself with changes like this in the game.

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