Big ‘Bill’ is up for grabs again this year and the majority of chatter in New Zealand is whether we can shake that ‘other’ monkey off the back and win the tournament away from home.
There’s also the question of whether ‘Dad’s Army’ are capable of doing so, or whether father time has finally caught up with some of the integral squad members.
While it is generally agreed among most punters that All Black coach Steve Hansen is likely to stay faithful to his incumbents I have been wondering whether we might be treated to a surprise or two when he announces his first side of the year for the abbreviated Rugby Championship.
So, what are the possible options?
Props
Outside of injury, there seems little chance of anyone forcing their way into the current mix. With Owen and Ben Franks, Charlie Faumuina, Tony Woodcock, Joe Moody and Wyatt Crockett both sides are well covered.
The one chap who has caught the eye this season is Reggie Goodes, who has been excellent for the Hurricanes, in particular his mobility and ruck work. Another I have a lot of time for is Kane Hames, although his early season suspension for foul play may count against him.
Hookers
Hooker is one position of concern for the All Blacks, particularly in terms of experience. With Dane Coles’ injury concerns, Kevin Mealamu’s long history of problems, and one of the more promising hopefuls in Nathan Harris picking up what appears to be a season-ending injury, there will be some furrowed brows contemplating this position.
James Parsons was called into the northern touring squad last season and probably holds down the likely third position at the moment.
Outside of those mentioned, you have Liam Coltman and Motu Matu’u, both of whom have been involved in All Black training squads in the past, while Hika Elliott is another option and provides plenty of experience.
Perhaps we will see an investment in youth, such as Codie Taylor, although this seems most unlikely for the World Cup.
It is quite the conundrum. Flip a coin.
Locks
Outside the dominant starting pair of Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick, the back-up positions are well and truly up for grabs. Throw a blanket over Jeremy Thrush, Luke Romano, Dominic Bird and Patrick Tuipolotu but of course you can only fit so many.
If there is one player who may force his way into consideration it would be James Broadhurst, who has been in fantastic form for the Hurricanes and has improved his work rate considerably.
Loose forwards
No shortage of options here. Richie McCaw, Kieran Read, Jerome Kaino, Liam Messam and Sam Cane will all go and provide a versatile set of players with many being able to cover multiple positions, if not all three.
Victor Vito is another who may be chosen, and Steven Luatua has also been involved in the All Black setup. Akira Ioane has burst onto the scene with great effect but perhaps a bit too green at this point.
The guy I really like at the moment and would be my pick for the most likely bolter is Blade Thomson.
I remember an interview last year on Radiosport with Nigel Yalden, a rugby correspondent here in New Zealand, who mentioned Hansen’s want of a player who can cover both 6 and 8 as well as lock as it provides more options when planning a bench, and how he had viewed Patrick Tuipolotu as athletic enough to perhaps be that man. It’s a train of thought that hasn’t left me, and on form Thomson is the perfect candidate, adept in all three positions.
While Blade has missed a fair chunk of this season with concussion he has a great opportunity to present his case with the Hurricanes seemingly finals-bound. He might just push his way into calculations.
Halfbacks
Aaron Smith is still far and away the number one choice, while TJ Perenara has cemented himself as his backup with a strong season that has eased the concerns of many.
However, with Tawera Kerr-Barlow’s long-term injury the options behind appear slim. Augustine Pulu was widely nominated as a contender but has not had the best season, while the pros and cons of Andy Ellis have been debated ad nauseam.
Outside of those options the most appealing is Brad Webber, who seems to have jumped over Pulu in the pecking order for the Chiefs. Outside of that, I suspect the coaching staff will be keeping a close eye on Kerr-Barlow’s recovery.
First five
The All Blacks have plenty of depth here with Dan Carter, Beauden Barrett, Colin Slade and Aaron Cruden all seemingly fighting it out for three spots. With Cruden’s unfortunate season-ending injury I cannot see anyone else usurping the other three for a place in the squad.
However, this is a position which appears to be cursed come World Cup time, and with Barrett’s recent knee troubles and both Slade and Carter’s history of injuries, no one will be breathing easily.
Lima Sopoaga is having a stand-out season for the Highlanders and would appear to be the first choice in if the curse strikes. I suspect it is not a mere coincidence that Stephen Donald and Graham Henry will be leading that tour party to the World Cup later in the year.
Midfield
Ma’a Nonu, Sonny Bill Williams, Conrad Smith, Malakai Fekitoa and Ryan Crotty are all in good form and outside of injury I cannot see this mix changing.
However, one midfielder I really like the look of is Charlie Ngatai. Pace, skill, size – he is definitely worth considering if injury strikes. Equally adept at both inside and outside centre, he would provide a quality option if required and if given the opportunity, he won’t look back.
Outside backs
Another area the All Blacks appear settled in, with Ben Smith, Julian Savea, Israel Dagg and Cory Jane all likely to be in the mix. Add in the ability of both Barrett and Slade being able to cover if required and I again cannot see any bolters.
Behind this set of incumbents there are some exciting prospects. Nehe Milner-Skudder has caught attention with ball in hand, while Patrick Osborne and Waisake Naholo have been terrorising opponents for the Highlanders. Osborne has been involved in training camps, while I would not have believed Naholo was in contention after his decision to move overseas however it is interesting to note he now appears to be trying to back out of his deal to stay in New Zealand. Watch this space.
Of all the options, the player that appeals to me the most is James Lowe. What separates him from the rest is his kicking game, a valuable commodity at Test level, and this would have him in front of the others if opportunity comes knocking.
That’s my take on the current state of affairs. Have I missed anyone?
And, what of our SANZAR partners? For me, the most likely bolters would be Rory Arnold at lock for Australia, and Jesse Kriel for the Springboks. Who do our Australian and South African friends think may be the surprise packets in their respective squads?
Birdy
Guest
Sheek; most teams take their game to 'a higher level' come RWC time. It's a combination of factors. It's the only time when all teams are on a relatively even playing field in terms of their preparation, motivation, time of the season etc. Think of the performances of Argentina; Fiji; even France when they got to the final last time (despite being awful in the pool etc). Ironically, it's one of the few disadvantages the ABs have. Their overall consistency means they don't improve, relatively, in World Cups as much as other sides. This, rather than nonsense about 'choking', explains why their RWC record isn't as good as their overall one.
canadiankiwi
Guest
My AB squad: Props: Crockett, Woodcock, O.Franks, B.Franks, Tameifuna Hookers: Coles, Elliot, Motu'u Locks: Retallick, Whitelock, Tuipulotu, Broadhurst Loosies: Kaino, McCaw, Read, Cane, Messam Scrum Half: A. Smith, Perenara, Webber Fly Half: Barrett, Carter, Slade Centers: Nonu, C.Smith, SBW, Fekitoa Outside Backs: Savea, Noholo, B.Smith, Dagg* * I wanted to select Osborne over Dagg, but on a cold rainy evening in October in conditions not made for running rugby, I would want a back three of 11 Savea, 14 B.Smith, and 15 Dagg. On a dry pitch under clear skies, how could you defend Savea, Noholo, and B.Smith?
44bottles
Roar Guru
In the last few years, those 4 seem to be outside backs chosen (with Piutau getting a shot while Jane was injured). It's pretty likely that they'll be the same players selected for this World Cup, even though I prefer Piutau to Jane. Though Piutau being injured might come into the calculation (match fitness)
Old Bugger
Guest
ck Well written summary and hard to disagree. I've got similar thoughts on the looses you nominate. I'd love to see Ben T chosen ahead of Faumuina. I worry about Woody but he always comes right at the business end of the season so IMO, he'll be there. And, I still have a worry about Crockett's penalty magnetism so I'm hoping that extra time with Cron, will sort that out. Your 4 locks are fine but big Pat T may be struggling to make it with an injury....in that case, Romano should be called on. I like the looks of Broadhurst but it's at his mate's (Thrush), expense. Your back line looks good and I concur, its a tough call on Crotty and Ngatai but size, will be the pre-requisite this year. Gees, Nonu/SBW, Feks, Savea & Naholo just sounds bone-rattling. Tough on Gear but he's really done nothing all year - if Naholo doesn't make it, then I hope either Gear or Heem gets a look-in for right wing. The back 3 will be the head-ache for Hansen but I think you've pinned it with Savea, Smith, Dagg & Naholo (if NZRU can get him off his contract). Unless Jane pulls out some blinders over the next 4-5weeks, then I really can't see him making the side.
ben
Guest
I know there are some good 7's getting about in NZ, but in my opinion Ardie Savea has been fantastic.
canadiankiwi
Guest
Moody will not be selected, you can't pick 3 looseheads. Tameifuna should be the third tighthead but they will pick Faumuina despite his mediocre scrummaging. Romano has fallen behind Tuipulotu, Broadhurst, and Thrush. He will not be picked unless several injuries. There is not a chance in the world that Vito gets selected over Messam. Vito is soft. No room for both Dagg and Jane- one or the other will go with the fourth spot going to another big, fast hard runner- Patrick Osborne, Waisake Noholo, or Charles Piutau.
canadiankiwi
Guest
The Blues front row- Woodcock, Mealamu,Faimuina- have been terrible in some games.only Woodcock is worth picking for the RWC. Mealamu is a terrible line-out thrower and has lost all explosiveness as a ball carrier, which was his strength. Can anyone honestly say he is even a better than average Super 15 hooker? Coles and Elliot are both superior players than Mealamu. Is Mealamu really any better at this stage than Matu'u, Coltman, Funnell, or Parsons? Faumuina has been very poor scrummager and Ireland and England would love to scrum against him- they would destroy him! Woodcock offers nothing more than the a scrummager any more- he is non-existent in phase play.
canadiankiwi
Guest
Nice!!!!!!
canadiankiwi
Guest
Blade Thomson is not a sure starter on his own team- he starts only when Shields or Vito are unavailable due to injury.
mania
Guest
def goodes before moody. Hika as the 3rd hooker. andyEllis as 3rd halfback
Billy Bob
Guest
Ireland, maybe Sheek?
Jibba Jabba
Guest
And that girl from K Road, whats her name again???
canadiankiwi
Guest
NZ has two excellent hookers- Coles and Elliot.
canadiankiwi
Guest
Vito is absolutely NOT a certainty. The ABs will pick five loosies for sure- Laino, McCaw, Read, Cane, and Messam. Vito will only be selected if one of the above is injured as Hansen will likely select only five loonies, as Henry did in 2011.
canadiankiwi
Guest
Arguably better than Coles. Coles is very good at everything, so is Elliot. The difference is attitude- one is likeable the other does not get along with others.
canadiankiwi
Guest
When was the last time Jane dominated a game with his ball in hand- 2011? Jane was the right choice back in 2011 when the game was all about kick and chase and many NZ wings had poor high ball skills. Now, all NZ wings spend enormous time at practice catching high balls- Savea, Osborne, Piutau, Lowe, Naholo, Gear- they are all are good at defusing bombs. Jane is yesterday's man. So is Dagg, but at least Dagg offers something no one else has- the longest boot on the pitch (minus Frans Steyn) and the ability to play force back in the opposition end on a cold, rainy day.
canadiankiwi
Guest
Ioane looks to be identical to Vito- superior athlete with ball in hand, especially in the open, but not very interested in playing tight and doing the dirty work like cleaning rucks and drives off rucks. Test rugby is not 7s. Ioane may become the next great kiwi loosie but not this year!!!'
canadiankiwi
Guest
Brad Shields is a far more physical forward with a higher work rate than both Vito and Blade Thomson. He has started at both 6 and 8 this season and is a key factor in the Hurricanes forwards finding steel, along with James Broadhurst. Vito and Luatua are too soft for test rugby- superior athletes but don't like the dark stuff, like Shields. However, Kaino, McCaw, Read, Cane, and Messam are automatic so Shields has no chance for RWC selection unless injury strikes. Charlie Fumiana has had a very poor season and Owen Franks has been average. Ben Franks has had his best season in years at tighthead. As the ABs will select three tightheads, I would pick Ben Tameifuna over Faumuina, as Ben is a much more powerful scrummager and a very physical tackler and cleaner. Tameifuna is feared.Tony Woodcoack has really played poorly, even his scrummaging has declined. He will be selected but I hope he is on the bench behind Crockett. Hika Elliot is the second best hooker in NZ by a mile. If he is not picked, it is due to his personality, not ability. Elliot is a very accurate thrower, powerful scrummager, and good ball carrier- and big for a NZ hooker. Mealamu will be picked but he should be third hooker at best and not on the match day squad against any one good- 15 years later and still a horrible thrower. The deepest at lock NZ has ever been- Retallick, Whitelock, Tuipulotu and Broadhurst will be selected. Romano if Tuipulotu is injured. The inside backs and midfield pick themselves- A.Smith, Perenara, Webber, Carter, Barrett, Slade, Nonu, C. Smith, SBW, Fekitoa. Tough for Crotty and Ngatai who are both excellent but neither Crotty or Ngatai have ever played with Nonu, while Fekitoa did last June vs England and there is no chance a healthy Nonu is not starting at 12. The outside backs is really the only place were their is intrigue. Savea and B.Smith are locks for 2 of 4 spots as Hansen will use Slade and/or Barrett to cover 15. Dagg, Jane, Piutau , Osborne, Lowe, and Waisake Naholo all have supporters for RWC selection. I think the selectors are going to make an example out of Piutau for signing overseas so young after so much time was invested in him. I hope the selectors go with size, power and form and select the Highlanders trio of Osborne, Naholo, B.Smith, along with Savea. However, I suspect that either Jane or Dagg will be selected over Osborne.
wardad
Guest
Mate having seen Jane from a few metres away,under lights,crowd screaming for his blood ,opposition bearing down on him with murder in their wicked wee hearts and for him to catch ,fend ,make valuable metres and pass with perfect aplomb . Amazing ,as are pretty much all the talented young blokes getting around the paddocks these days.
StMike
Guest
I can't see that backline worrying a full strength Highlanders, Chiefs or Hurricanes. Should add Crusaders to that list!