Smashing the Sydney Swans has become a national pastime in recent years. The Bloods have gone from footy’s honorary second team to the New York Yankees of our game, in less than five years.
What happened? To me, the tipping point is quite clear. Or should we say, the Tippett Point?
When the Swans unveiled Kurt Tippett in that delightful red and white jumper, the year after they had just won their second flag in six years, everyone was left scratching their heads a little. How could the grand final victors pick up the best available player on the market?
An illegal player movement clause in his sophomore contract with Adelaide certainly helped.
His (guesstimate) $800,000 salary instantly made him the Swan’s (guesstimate) most expensive asset, and so lifted the level of scrutiny on his performance to quite ridiculous levels. For a two-metre tall goal kicker, who managed less than two goals per game during his time at Adelaide, 800 big ones sounds a little steep. But let’s think back to the footy world of 2012.
Contested marks were king. Collingwood’s Travis Cloke had just made mad bank on his ability to clunk the contested ones, while Geelong’s Tom Hawkins was making highlight videos every weekend. Hell, even Drew Petrie was considered a ‘prized forward’ when signing in 2011.
It was a key forward driven league, and Tippett’s stature, third place finish on the contested marking ladder in 2012, and fact he was reportedly Adelaide’s highest paid player, guaranteed he would get money thrown at him from multiple suitors.
Sydney can’t help that they’re an attractive football destination. Or that they had an extra 10 per cent on top of market salary available that other clubs didn’t.
And so it was done.
Fellow key forward Lance Franklin helped confirm the Swans’ new found reputation for being good at managing their football affairs in 2013 when he jumped ship – this time to a recently vanquished Sydney team that he had just helped vanquish.
Together, Franklin and Tippett were supposed to form the scariest forward line in the competition. Franklin was to be LeBron James: the oversized, all around baller to give the Swans a forward line spark they’d lacked since the explosion of Barry Hall.
Tippett was to be the full forward of the future: tall, strong, but mobile enough to get around the ground and beat his opponent one-on-one. A Timofey Mozgov, if you will. They even look sort of similar.
The Sydney machine, and its shiny two new cogs, were to transform the Swans from a dour, defensive unit to a scoring superpower. Apparently, it’s not quite working out, with Tippett not playing to his valuation.
Except it is working out.
That article linked above is 1000 words of hot takes and hot air, and it left me feeling dissatisfied. The outcry at The Tippett Contract is a window into our collective misunderstanding of where value comes from in an 18-man team game like Australian Rules football.
In my usual way, I decided to run the numbers on how Sydney had performed since the forward line pairing had started to come together. In Sydney’s grand final-winning year (2012), they recorded an offensive efficiency rating (OER) of minus 7.9. As a reminder, between plus and minus 5.0 is around about average in most years, meaning the Swans were a below-average offensive unit.
In 2013, with Tippett in the team, that lifted to plus 10.5. And in 2014 when Franklin joined, it went even further in rising to plus 11.6. In both years, Sydney had a significantly above average offence, with last year’s effort good enough for a top four finish.
Now, this is likely a lot to do with mindset and scheme changes in the front office as it is one or two players. But guess what? It’s a lot to do with these two players.
When Sydney have had both Franklin and Tippett in their line up, they have managed to put up a sterling (for the current era) 102 points per game while conceding 71, and achieving a win rate of 80 per cent. Those are Hawthorn-like numbers. When one or both are missing, it’s a much more pedestrian 85-68 split, with a winning percentage of 69 per cent.
‘That’s all Buddy Franklin!’, I hear you cry. Well again it is, and it isn’t.
When Kurt Tippett hasn’t suited up with Franklin – which is 10 of a possible 34 games that the two have been in the red and white – Sydney have put up the same defensive points per game as when they both play (71), but been much more middling inside their own arc, kicking just 84 points per game. That’s with Franklin in the team, everyone.
And its not just the team that does better. Check out some key forward KPIs for Franklin, with and without his partner in forward line crime.
Goals: 2.8 per game (no Tippett) | 3.7 per game (with Tippett)
Scoring Shots: 4.4 | 6.2
Marks Inside 50: 1.7 | 4.0
Inside 50s: 4.1 | 3.8
It seems having two 400-pound gorillas in your forward line is better than having one. Franklin and Tippett are like a Batman and Robin, except rather than biffs, pows and bams it’s goals, contested marks and cold, hard Ws.
Even if Tippett is just a foil for Franklin, his presence alone is worth almost another 50 per cent of number 23’s direct scoreboard impact. That’s $500,000 a year if Franklin is earning seven digits, and you think he’s pulling his weight.
And Tippett is no slouch in front of goal himself, bagging 2.4 goals per game at a solid 66 per cent accuracy. How many top of the table or contending teams are struggling for that second tall option right now?
Could Kurt Tippett be Sydney’s most valuable player? You know, he just might be.
robert dungey
Guest
In my view Tippett has played one career game that was at a level to justify his price tag... the 2012 Prelim final v's Hawthorn. His hot and cold form for the Crows was very frustrating. Like many I thought his best football might emerge from that point on, but if you take a properly objective view of his output since then it simply hasn't happened. He's made a bit of a goose of the Swans and if he really had a conscience he would give about half the cash back....and even then he would be overpaid.
Momentbymoment
Guest
The Hawks are able to pay unders for AA players because they don't have the 'Go home' factor that plagues the northern clubs. Sydney has always had to pay overs for stars, which is why COLA and the academies were green lighted in the first place. Not that I wish to re-hash this debate but I do hope the Academies survive Eddie's wrath as they will (hopefully) supply some home grown players and hence balance the playing field.
Gecko
Guest
Ryan, you've pointed out that it's a slightly different era now to when Tippett was recruited to the Swans. I think Boyd and Hogan have showed that a full forward's main value in 2015 is just getting to as many contests as possible and bringing the ball to ground. They don't have to take a lot of marks and kick a lot of goals (that's just icing when it happens). So clubs with tight salary caps at the end of 2015 should look at paying small money for any new full forward. There are actually plenty of blokes who can do what Hogan and Boyd are doing, and cheaply. Tippett is effective but other tall forwards can do the same job for less money.
Balthazar
Guest
Taberner plays the same role for Freo - and is faster, less injury prone and has a massive tank - and he has come off the rookie list. You can mark him down for a couple of gaols (except in wet and slippery conditions a la Adelaide Oval last week) but is only going to get better and he has had a profound effect on Pav's game. I doubt he'd be on more than $200k. I don't see $800,000 of value in Tippett
Jason K
Guest
All I can say is Tippet stunk up my fantasy team this year, so I had to dump him. This enthusiasm in this article is elevated way above his actual performance (in fantasy terms). I'm glad his real-world value is much more than his fantasy price tag would have you believe.
Pumping Dougie
Guest
Great point Gene about the impact of Tippet's salary on losing quality players, although I actually think that happened a year later when Buddy came along. I thought Ryan's article was satire (although you argue your case well Ryan). But if the Swans need a decoy for Buddy they should have purchased Liam Jones or Ty Vickery or Chris Dawes or Josh Jenkins or kept Jesse White - because they're about par for Tippet's performances; then they could have saved themselves at least half a million.
Ironmongery
Guest
Thanks for the article Ryan, it does make sense. I think an unspoken reason Swans were able to attract these two high profile players was because Sydney is just a far more attractive prospect in terms of living than Melbourne or Adelaide. Beautiful beaches and women. And all the bogans follow rugby league so the crowds at the SCG are far more worldly than your typicical fan base down south. I worry about the Swans tactics in the wet. An opposition could get away with playing someone half the size on Tippett in those conditions.
AB
Guest
I think the main reason for the blowback against Sydney getting Tippett and Franklin was COLA. It was perceived to give Sydney an advantage in terms of more salary cap space for big-name recruits. Whereas Hawthorn was bound by exactly the same rules as most other clubs. I'm not arguing the rights or wrongs of COLA - like most readers of the Roar, I'm sick of the endless debates about the issue. I'm just pointing out the obvious reason why many supporters of other clubs grumbled about Sydney's recruiting, while very few grumbled about Hawthorn's.
Frank R
Roar Rookie
Think Leigh Matthews calls him Wayne as often as Leigh feels like it.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
Do you think Essendon would go for that? I guess Tippett would fill a need of theirs: the ability to mark the ball and score. Carlisle has so much upside though. I don't know if they'd part with him, particularly if they have to take on all of Tippett's salary versus what they'd be paying in a sophomore deal for Carlisle.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
On Lake, that's a slightly different proposition than Sydney getting Tippett. By all reports, the Bulldogs wanted to re-sign Lake on a longer deal with more dollars than Hawthorn, but Lake took a pay cut and increased risk to chase a flag. It worked out pretty handsomely for him. Tippett on the other hand was mid-20s, signing his third contract, in a key forward driven market. It's not quite the same thing. But I do see your point regarding everyone's ambivalence to how Hawthorn have built just as good an empire on and off the field. It's a phenomenon I opened the piece with, albeit not referencing the Hawks. The price of being Sydney, I guess.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
Ha! If only that was the case. If being bigger than everyone else was a football skill I might have made it past that first under 12s training session. I guess what I'm saying is his value to Sydney is more than his ability to kick goals in his own right. While that's important, it's not the only impact he has or value he creates for the team as its structured.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
That's an interesting proposition, for sure. What I'll do is have a look at Adelaide over that two year period on a similar basis and see what the numbers shake out. I have a feeling Tippett had a pretty good run without injury over that time, so it might not be possible. But I get what you're saying. But if he's a second forward, he's a pretty handy one. Maybe not 800k worth - although remember it's a key position forward driven league - but certainly worth more than everyone is giving him credit for.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
I decided to look at the numbers after I read that piece on Fox Sports. Calling him annoyingly mediocre is just a garbage call, and is about as insightful as me saying Peter Siddle is frustratingly pedestrian. Fortunately in this case the numbers backed up my intuition, which is a nice feeling. I'm glad you agree and took the time to say so. Thanks!
Matt
Roar Rookie
Beating the 2009 Saints defence? Didn't think I'd hear that but I can't complain. Great work, keep it up!
Dave from Coffs
Guest
"When the Swans unveiled Kurt Tippett in that delightful red and white jumper, the year after they had just won their second flag in six years, everyone was left scratching their heads a little. How could the grand final victors pick up the best available player on the market?" The general football public are upset by the fact the Swans have traded for and got two in demand forwards. The only high price/quality trade they had done since Barry Hall, whilst the Hawks are allowed to continually trade for good footballers even though they are considered to be the best team of the last 5-6 years. 2009 Hawthorn gets the Roos best fullback in Josh Gibson. The Swans bring in three, Kennedy, McGlynn and Mumford of which only Mummy was a regular starter but was dropped by the Cats for the finals. 2010 The Hawks trade in Hale and the Swans no one. In 2011 the Hawks get Gunston, starting forward for the Crows. The Swans picked up the discarded Mitch Morton In 2012 the Hawks pickup two time All Australian Brian Lake, the Swans get Kurt Tippett. No one questions how the previous years minor premiers can get such a high quality defender only why the Swans can get an in demand full forward (for the record they move a lot their footballers on) 2013 sees the Hawks get the Saints starting ruckman, Ben McEvoy. The Swans get Buddy. 2014 The AFL's premier get the most is demand fullback for years but the Swans, not breaking any rules, get told they aren't allowed to trade for anyone worth any more than the average wage because the public/media don't like it. Now I don't mind what the Hawks have done, good on them, but if the Swans trades are going to be scrutinised then the Hawks definitely should be too.
WhereIsGene
Guest
I agree he's clearly an above average player Ryan and that "annoyingly mediocre" is an unfair tag. Unfortunately at $800k a year "annoyingly mediocre" pretty much fits the bill in the same way Jack Watts gets labeled a joke because he was the #1 pick or Ryan Schoenmakers is laughed at because he looks like Tarzan but plays like Jane. Its all about perception.
jax
Guest
WC is only paying Nic $500-600k a year and the rest comes from ambassador roles apparently. He is worth every penny. If you could only chose between Buddy or Tippet ie one of them I'd take Buddy
Mark
Guest
He hasn't excited me too much this year. I wouldn't be upset if we traded him for Carlisle and a draft pick and play him as a defender (which is what he really is).
DylanC
Roar Rookie
Equal third with Kennedy, Franklin and Roughead on 2.9. Just behind Cloke who finished first (3.1) and Cameron in second (3).