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In a World Cup squad of 31, how many players do you need for certain positions?
Conventional thinking for specialist positions dictates as a minimum of three halfbacks or first fives, three hookers and four props.
Adopting this methodology, if you split the team into 14 backs and 17 forwards, there are only nine available spots to select for the other positions in the backline, and 10 spots the other forward positions.
Curiously for a country renowned for outside backs, New Zealand don’t have a lot of options. Injuries to Israel Dagg and Charles Piutau cloud selections, leaving only Ben Smith, Julian Savea and Cory Jane available. For argument’s sake, let’s lock in those three, as well as Aaron Smith and TJ Perenara.
Conrad Smith, Ma’a Nonu, Dan Carter and Beauden Barrett are also guaranteed selection so that’s nine available spots taken and five remaining for the backline to cover fullback, wing, midfield and first five.
Fullback cover can be provided by Jane if desperate, however it’s a specialist role and of the available contenders there’s a strong argument to pick a player who can also play on the wing, so possibly Nehe Milner-Skudder.
Piutau was in form prior to getting injured, however his overseas departure after the World Cup raises a question mark over his selection. Dagg hasn’t been sighted for most of Super Rugby this year and will have to produce a blinder if selected against Samoa to have a chance.
For the wing, outside of the two incumbents, the selectors will likely pick a debutante, such as Waisake Naholo.
Midfield is a battle between Malakai Fekitoa, Sonny Bill Williams and Ryan Crotty. Will it be just one or two from this group? Depends on who is selected on the wing.
In all their World Cup campaigns to date, New Zealand has opted for two first fives, and since 1999 three halfbacks. Steve Hansen can’t afford to continue this pattern if he selects Dan Carter, as expected. It would be a remarkable feat if Carter went through the tournament uninjured, so Barrett and Colin Slade are booked on the plane as backup.
The payoff for that decision may see just two halfbacks picked, with Slade’s utility value providing a third option. Taking three players for each of the halves appears excessive, especially given the added pressure that places on the midfield and outside backs if there are injuries there.
In the loose forwards, Kieran Read, Richie McCaw, Jerome Kaino, Sam Cane and Liam Messam are locked in. Arguments could be made for an additional loose forward, but I believe they will opt for a fifth prop instead.
Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock are the only guarantees at lock, with two more to come from Luke Romano, Jeremy Thrush and James Broadhurst.
Owen Franks, Charlie Faumuina, Wyatt Crockett and Tony Woodcock are locked in as specialist props. A fifth prop who can cover both sides, like Ben Franks, is also likely to be selected.
The weakest position in terms of quality backups is hooker. Dane Coles is the only guarantee. Two more need to be picked, but while the talent is there, consistent performances aren’t.
So the All Blacks will be broken down as:
Backs: two fullbacks, three wings, four midfield, three first fives, two halfbacks.
Forwards: five loose forwards, four locks, five props, three hookers.
For South Africa and Australia supporters, how do you think your World Cup squad will be broken down?
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.