The Copa America, exactly like the South American continent itself, is not egalitarian.
There will be no Euro 2004 Greece-style victories here. The tournament has literally been going for 100 years and Uruguay, Argentina and Brazil have won all but six of the 40-odd editions.
But this decade even Brazil and Argentina have had their woes, with 6-1 and 7-1 losses. There has never been a more competitive Copa America field, with Chile, Colombia and Uruguay all giving the last World Cup a shake.
Here is a guide to help you sort through, as alluded to in the Paraguayan book Son of Man, the pain of being South American.
Argentina is a production line of international talents that have sustained the Champions League over the last twenty years. (Barcelona’s starting line-up features both Mascherano and Messi, just as an example, and Carlos Tevez was on the opposite side for Juve.)
Yet it’s been twenty plus years since Argentina won anything. It feels a waste to feature the greatest player of the 21st century and not at least win one trophy during that time, in a period in which Argentina’s junior squads won five FIFA U20 World Cups and two Olympic gold medals.
The recurring difficulty with Argentina is that their current talent is all skewed towards the forwards, leaving a defensive foundation of substandard individuals.
Conventional wisdom suggests lining up with Angel Di Maria on the left wing and Sergio Aguero, Messi and Tevez (all sensational forwards) up front.
Who knows with the defence, but they almost won last year’s World Cup nonetheless, albeit in an accidental manner. I’d suggest they’ll win the Copa America this time, but I said exactly the same in 2011.
If they don’t win now they have an old squad whose days are numbered.
Bolivia haven’t won a Copa America match since 1997. Genuine talent is thin on the ground. Their main guy is a Bolivian-Brazilian named Marcelo Martins, a tall, talented forward that reminded me of Zlatan Ibrahimovic but whose career declined.
I keep an eye out because I lived in Bolivia for a year in my 20s. Their most famous and flukish result was defeating Argentina, Messi et al, 6-1 in 2009. It was Argentina’s historically worst ever defeat, which I covered here.
Speaking of odd thrashings, one year ago Brazil lost the World Cup semi-final 7-1 to Germany, a match that erased an aura that had lasted over 50 years.
Much of that team was deadwood and they’ll be throwing the kids in this time, but they are also injury-wracked. Neymar will be around, so they’ll at least get to the semis, but it’s hard to believe they’ll have the overall class to end up on top.
I’m sure they will work hard and not give in – before the 2014 World Cup, Brazil prided themselves on being winners, whether they were any good or not. They arguably shouldn’t have even made the semis at World Cup 2014.
They’ll only lose if they’re outclassed (they won’t be outfought), which may yet happen.
Chile have never won the Copa America. Their most consistently successful years are the ones we are living right now. Their match against Brazil at World Cup 2014 was a South American classic.
This is their best generation of players – featuring slippery forward Alexis Sanchez and midfielder Arturo Vidal, who just played in the Champions League final, among with lots of other talent.
The confluence of this, and the fact this tournament is staged in Chile, means this is an absolutely unique chance for the nation.
Chile’s weakness, though, is that their ball movement and buzzing possession often don’t translate to a whole lot of goals. They are always the most interesting national team in the world to watch, but soccer isn’t decided by a panel of judges.
Colombia were a brilliant team at World Cup 2014. James Rodriguez scored six goals and introduced himself to the world and Juan Cuadrado was Mr Assist.
They played a classical style, all passing and goals, and should have had the ambition to go on and win the damn thing. It’s a little tragic that they didn’t have that mentality.
Injured forward, the formerly supreme Radamel Falcao (not any longer), will be an addition to the team. Ideally they will be great again.
They were a young team and should have the maturity now to aim high. Like really high: final or bust, although the competition is fierce.
Ecuador played above themselves to qualify for World Cup 2014 and always seem to have some good players coming through. In Brazil last year their standout ‘find’ was forward/winger Enner Valencia, who scored all three Ecuador goals.
Their group is easy, so they should make a quarter-final, but their recent Copa America history is not good at all.
Don’t expect anything from the two invitational teams, Jamaica and Mexico.
Jamaica have been an absolute non-entity since the Reggae Boyz of World Cup 1998, but seeing them here brings back nice memories.
Mexico would be a chance to win the title if they actually send their best players to Chile, but they won’t.
Paraguay is the story of a multi-generational miracle that finally ended in 2011. A nation of only roughly 6 million people (to compare, Colombia has almost 50 million) qualified for four consecutive World Cups from 1998 to 2010, reaching the second round in three of the four and giving winners France (’98) and Spain (’10) terrible frights.
In the 2011 Copa America they bloody-mindedly refused to be beaten and reached the final by winning two penalty shootouts after terrible goalless draws, their specialty.
But that generation ended abruptly and they shockingly finished in last (ninth) place for World Cup 2014 qualification. The fact they are still using Roque Santa Cruz, Paraguay’s forward since 1999, probably says it all.
Every South American country has had its moments of glory in the last two decades except Peru, who hasn’t reached the World Cup since 1982.
The country fell apart on multiple levels in the 1990s and it has been hard for Peru’s team to keep it together despite producing a number of forwards who made it in Europe: Pizarro, Farfan, Vargas. Ironically Peru traditionally pass well but have no penetration.
Yet their recent Copa America record has been quite good, in a battling way. Peru came third at the last (admittedly crazy) edition in 2011.
Uruguay’s national team is a book all of its own. They are the supreme battling nation, epitomised by their 1950 World Cup win over Brazil.
Uruguay also got a great generation together to reach the semi-finals of the 2010 World Cup, and then win the 2011 Copa America after an epic quarter-final victory over Argentina in Santa Fe, Argentina.
They are transitioning between generations now and are not as skilled as, say, Chile or Colombia. Their lynchpin, of course, should have been Luis Suarez, but he’s suspended for the entire tournament, so Edinson Cavani will have to carry the forward line.
Like Brazil but more so, Uruguay may be outclassed, but never outfought.
Venezuela’s best decade has been the one just past, and in the 2011 Copa America came this close to a Greece-style miracle. But they never made the final step to qualify for the World Cup.
They have worked hard to rise from a historical laughingstock, and produced a brilliant player named Juan Arango surrounded by competent teammates. A quarter-final is more than possible.
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