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The Brumbies face the unenviable task of toppling the Stormers at Newlands Stadium on Saturday in one of the two quarter finals that sees the loser exit the Super Rugby competition for 2015.
The biggest issue for the Brumbies could well be the penalty count – given that the Referee, Jaco Peyper, the assistant referees Craig Joubert and Jason Jaftha, and the TMO Deon van Blommerstien – are all from South Africa.
While I am I no way suggesting the match officials are consciously biased, it seems illogical for Sanzar to appoint a South African referee, two South African linesmen, and a South African TMO to such a critical match held in South Africa, between a South African team and a foreign team.
For no matter how you view this, it is undeniable that the opportunity for bias exists, even if it not conscious. Why allow for the possibility, when it could easily be avoided by appointing at the very least, a referee from a neutral country.
Anyone who has been to South Africa knows that it is no place for the faint hearted when it comes to rugby. The home crowds are not shy in voicing their pleasure or displeasure with referees, linesman, the TMO and anyone else who comes within their line of vision.
Let’s face it – match officials are only human after all. While it is potentially unfair on the Brumbies, it is also unfair to put the Referee Jaco Peyper (in particular) in this position, no matter how accomplished and impartial he may be.
On top of the pressure that Peyper will inevitably be under, World Rugby has instructed referees, quite rightly, to be stricter on the rolling maul. There is no doubt that some of the mauls constructed and executed by teams in the Super Rugby competition have been very loose and it is imperative that the rules be enforced properly.
While the construction and execution of a properly constructed maul is an art in itself, the difficulty does not lie in doing it lawfully – players simply need to join the maul from behind the foot of the hindmost teammate in the maul and ensure they are caught in or properly bound to the maul at all times.
Given the driving maul has been one of the Brumbies main weapons, there will be added pressure on referee Peyper to police it properly. This of course is a two way street as properly constructed mauls are extremely difficult to stop, so the onus will be on the referee not to just police the attacking side but to scrutinise carefully the tactics employed by the defending side to thwart them.
While both teams may be concerned about the referee’s interpretation of the driving maul, the Brumbies other big concern may be their scrum. I strongly suspect that whoever gives away the least penalties will win this game and the last time these sides met, the Brumbies were on the receiving end of a 5-19 penalty count largely from scrum infringements.
There is little doubt the Stormers will come at the Brumbies’ scrum with all guns blazing. While they have lost their inspirational captain and Number 8 Duane Vermeulen, the rest of their pack is intact and remains a formidable force.
The Brumbies have struggled with their scrum at various stages throughout their 2015 Super Rugby campaign and they will be looking for a massive effort to ensure that it does not become their Achilles heel. Having prop Scott Sio available is a plus but whether that is enough remains to be seen.
Both teams have extremely good goal kickers, and the Stormers will no doubt look for field position so they can unleash the tremendous goal kicking skills of their No 10 Demetri Catrakilis, who will make the Brumbies pay for any penalties awarded against them within kicking range. With an 88.9 per cent success rate in the 2014 season of Super Rugby, and an even higher success rate over 89 per cent in 2015, he is a very big threat.
His opposite number, Christian Lealiifano is also no slouch at goal kicking, despite his uncharacteristic crucial miss the last time these two teams met.
This game is an even money bet, with the Brumbies having the benefit of being in this position a number of times before.
Nonetheless, I think the Stormers might just get over the top of the Brumbies, as I will be surprised if the latter end up on the positive side of the penalty count.
And whoever wins the penalty count should win this match.