2015 AFL season: The story so far (Part 1)

We are now well and truly past the halfway point of the AFL season and there are a lot of things to be discussed.

This mid-season analysis will be divided into three parts: Part 1 will look back at the season so far for the current top six, Part 2 will cover the middle six and Part 3 the bottom six.

Here, the current top six (Fremantle, West Coast Eagles, Sydney Swans, Hawthorn, Collingwood and Richmond) will have their season to date reviewed. I will also pick out some matches that could ultimately decide where they will eventually finish on the ladder in the two months leading up to September.

Fremantle
Position: First (11 wins, 1 loss, 44 points, 135.5%)
Next five: Brisbane Lions (DS), Hawthorn (AS), Carlton (DS), Richmond (MCG), GWS Giants (DS)

Following their straight-sets exit from the finals last year, and currently with the oldest list in the competition, many believed that Fremantle’s premiership window had well and truly shut.

But so far this year Ross Lyon’s men have proven the opposite, as illustrated by their 11-1 win-loss record for the season that sees them assume sole ownership at the top of the AFL ladder.

The Dockers had to contend with a tough start to the season, which included facing Port Adelaide, the team that knocked them out of the finals last year, the Geelong Cats at Simonds Stadium, the West Coast Eagles in an away derby and the Sydney Swans.

However, they were able to go undefeated through that stretch and in the process surge to the top of the ladder, proving to their doubters that they are not yet a spent force and that they are among the contenders for the premiership.

Their only loss so far came against Richmond at home in Round 10, when they were kept on the back foot by the Tigers from start to finish en route to a 27-point loss.

Their biggest test will come in a fortnight’s time when they travel to Launceston to tackle two-time reigning premiers Hawthorn in Round 15. Prior to that, they will host the Brisbane Lions, to whom they haven’t lost since 2009, at home.

After that, they will enjoy home fixtures against Carlton, Greater Western Sydney, West Coast Eagles and Melbourne, but must also face a rematch against Richmond at the MCG in Round 17 as well as away matches against St Kilda, North Melbourne and Port Adelaide.

Given their impressive form this year, it will be hard not seeing Fremantle finish in the top four come season’s end, an outcome that not many would have thought possible at the start of the season.

West Coast Eagles
Position: second (9 wins, 3 losses, 36 points, 153.5%)
Next five: Melbourne (TIO), Adelaide Crows (DS), Collingwood (ES), Sydney Swans (DS), Gold Coast Suns (MS)

If there’s one team that have surprised many in season 2015, it’s the West Coast Eagles.

Adam Simpson’s men entered this season low on expectations but have surged to second on the ladder thanks mainly to their midfield led by Brownlow Medallist Matt Priddis and Nic Naitanui, and full forward Josh Kennedy, who currently leads the goalkicking with 46 goals, 10 clear of reigning Coleman Medallist Lance Franklin.

Their defensive stocks also copped a battering with Mitch Brown and Eric Mackenzie both out for the season, as well as Darren Glass having retired midway through last season. This has resulted in Jeremy McGovern being used as a regular in defence, where he has excelled on some of the AFL’s best forwards.

It was initially thought that their toughest task would come against GWS in Round 5, whose twin towers of Jeremy Cameron and Cam McCarthy were (and still are) in good form. But the injury-plagued Eagles defence was able to restrict them to a league season-low score of 4.9 (33) while piling on 18.12 (120) themselves.

This season has also seen them dispel the ‘flat-track bullies’ tag; they have since scored wins over quality opposition such as Port Adelaide at the Adelaide Oval, the Geelong Cats at home and, just prior to their Round 13 bye, Richmond at the MCG.

A decade on from their two grand final showdowns against the Sydney Swans, which saw both clubs share a premiership each (the Swans in 2005 and the Eagles in 2006), a similar vibe could await when the two teams meet in Perth in Round 17.

Should both the Eagles and Swans continue on their winning ways, it could shape as not only a match that could decide a top-two finish, but also a finals preview with both sides expected to finish in the top four at season’s end.

The Eagles will also enjoy a Saturday night showdown against two-time reigning premiers Hawthorn at home two weeks later in a match which will provide a real measurement of where they are at going forward.

Victories in both of those matches could go a long way towards finishing in the top four for the first time since 2011 and possibly contending for their first premiership in almost a decade. Given the form both Western Australian clubs are showing in 2015, it’d be unimaginable not seeing both clubs fight it out for the flag on Saturday, October 3.

Sydney Swans
Position: third (9 wins, 3 losses, 36 points, 131.7%)
Next five: Port Adelaide (SCG), Brisbane Lions (Gabba), Hawthorn (ANZ), West Coast Eagles (DS), Adelaide Crows (SCG)

If there’s one team that is out for redemption this season, it’s the Sydney Swans.

Many believed that their grand final humiliation at the hands of Hawthorn last year would scar them for as long as it could, but instead it has fired John Longmire’s men to the point where they currently sit third on the ladder.

Forget the fact that they were able to gain revenge for that horror show last September with a four-point win at the MCG in Round 8, their most important result of the year could have come against Essendon seven rounds earlier.

The Swans appeared as if they hadn’t recovered from that grand final loss when they trailed the Bombers by 41 points deep in the third quarter. However, they would overhaul James Hird’s men in the final quarter to claim a 12-point victory.

So far their only three losses to date this season have come against Fremantle at Domain Stadium, the Western Bulldogs at home and most recently against Richmond last Friday night, where they wasted not only the chance to reclaim second place on the ladder, but also a 32-point half-time lead.

Still, the Swans are among the contenders for the flag but will be tested in consecutive weeks against Hawthorn and West Coast in Rounds 16 and 17, following upcoming matches against Port Adelaide and the Brisbane Lions.

They will also have to travel to Simonds Stadium to face the Geelong Cats, and to Etihad Stadium to face St Kilda in the penultimate round of the regular season, in the run to September. Both will come on either side of a pair of games in Sydney against fellow finals contenders Collingwood and the GWS Giants.

Hawthorn
Position: fourth (8 wins, 4 losses, 32 points, 152.7%)
Next five: Collingwood (MCG), Fremantle (AS), Sydney Swans (ANZ), Carlton (ES), Richmond (MCG)

After a slow start to the season, whereby they failed to notch together consecutive wins until just before their Round 11 bye, two-time reigning premiers Hawthorn appear to be rediscovering their title-winning form.

After opening their premiership defence with a 10-goal thrashing of the Geelong Cats in Round 1, it appeared as if the Hawks would be barely challenged as they look to become the first three-peat premiers since the Brisbane Lions.

However, the Hawks proceeded to lose four of their next seven games, including by two points against Essendon in Round 2, a shock loss to GWS in Sydney in Round 6 and the grand final rematch against the Sydney Swans in Round 8.

Since then, the club has won four games on the trot to displace Collingwood, whom they will face for the only time this season in a huge MCG blockbuster this Friday night, in the top four.

That match will be the first in a tough stretch which will also see the Hawks face ladder-leaders Fremantle in Launceston and the Sydney Swans in Sydney on either side of a six-day break, as well as a trip west for a date with the second-placed West Coast Eagles in Round 19.

Thus, the challenge has been thrown to Alastair Clarkson’s men as they continue their bid to stay on the premiership dais for the third consecutive year.

Collingwood
Position: fifth (8 wins, 4 losses, 32 points, 127.3%)
Next five: Hawthorn (MCG), Port Adelaide (Oval), West Coast Eagles (ES), Western Bulldogs (ES), Melbourne (MCG)

Another team that has made a resurgence this year are the Collingwood Magpies.

A horror run with injury and some heavy defeats throughout the second half of last year saw the club fail to make the finals for the first time since 2005, however the Pies have bounced back strongly as their fans would have expected.

Scott Pendlebury has once again led by example as captain and recently surged to the top of the AFL Player Rankings, dethroning injured Gold Coast Suns captain Gary Ablett Jr in the process.

He has led the Pies to fifth place on the ladder with eight wins and four losses for the season to date, though all of their wins have come against sides that are currently outside the eight, with ninth-ranked GWS (who were inside the eight in Round 11) being their highest-ranked victim so far.

Also included was a 69-point thrashing of recent bogey side the Gold Coast Suns at Metricon Stadium in Pendlebury’s 200th AFL game, and a 75-point win over Carlton in their then-coach Mick Malthouse’s record-breaking 715th game as a VFL/AFL coach.

Their most recent outing resulted in a narrow seven-point loss to Fremantle in Perth, but there was no doubt that the Pies did play like the finals contenders that they are. They can also expect to have their credentials tested against Hawthorn, to whom they have lost their last seven matches, at the MCG this Friday night.

They will also gain more prime-time and commercial exposure in Adelaide and Sydney when they face Port Adelaide and the Sydney Swans on Thursday and Friday night in Rounds 15 and 20, respectively.

Those are expected to be the only two major hurdles the Pies will face in the run to September, however they will also enjoy rematches against traditional rivals Richmond, Carlton, Geelong and Essendon as well.

Thus, all is going well at Collingwood and there’s absolutely no reason why the club cannot return to the finals in 2015, especially after last year’s shocking run with injuries and poor form.

Richmond
Position: sixth (7 wins, 5 losses, 28 points, 109.3%)
Next five: GWS Giants (MCG), Carlton (MCG), St Kilda (ES), Fremantle (MCG), Hawthorn (MCG)

Another slow start to the season again had the critics questioning whether the Tigers could contend for a top-four finish this season, but a recent rich vein of form has seen them rise to sixth on the ladder, a position they well and truly deserve.

After starting the season with a 23-point win over Carlton in Round 1, the Tigers fell into a hole and dropped four of their next five matches, including a 32-point loss to a Melbourne side which had won just seven times since the start of 2013 prior to the teams’ Friday night showdown in Round 4.

That, and a 35-point loss to North Melbourne in Hobart a fortnight later, forced the club to look at itself in the mirror and see where they were really at; the subsequent weeks saw them notch up wins over Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Essendon, Fremantle and more recently the Sydney Swans.

The Tigers have continued their habit of performing well on the road this season, with four of their seven wins coming outside of Victoria.

Last Friday night the club displayed its fighting fury when they came from 32 points down against the Sydney Swans at the SCG to record not only an important 18-point win, but also their first win at the venue since 2004.

It comes three weeks after the club produced easily its best performance for the year, when they stunned the then-undefeated Fremantle Dockers in Perth, kicking eight first-quarter goals en route to an impressive 27-point victory.

The challenge now will be trying to maintain that level of consistency at home, and it starts this Saturday against an injury-ravaged GWS Giants side who are missing their three most important players in Phil Davis, Joel Patfull, and Shane Mumford.

They will also enjoy matches against Carlton and St Kilda, two sides that are likely to finish in the bottom six in 2015, in the fortnight that follows the match against the Giants. Thus, there will be no excuses for the Tigers not only to continue their push for a top four berth, but also try to improve their performances at home.

That’s the top six teams’ seasons to date reviewed. Part 2 will look at the middle six clubs, namely the Adelaide Crows, Western Bulldogs, GWS Giants, Geelong Cats, North Melbourne and Port Adelaide.