While both races date back to the 1900s, only seven men in cycling’s history have ever managed to win both the Tour de France and Giro d’Italia in the same year. In 2015, Alberto Contador is attempting to become the eighth.
Straight up, cards on the table, he won’t do it.
Only days ago I wrote about how foolish it is to ever write off Contador. Calling him ‘the cyclist of his generation’ is a cliché, but like so many clichés it has become one because it’s true.
He’s the best since compatriot Miguel Indurain, who did the double in consecutive years in 1992 and ’93.
But regardless of Contador’s class or palmares, factors affecting both the man himself and the nature of the two races have to be weighed up, and they both point to a brave cyclist who won’t die wondering, but won’t win either.
The man
It’s been discussed ad nauseam, but the first thing that needs to be acknowledged is that Contador enters this race under an injury cloud.
On Stage 6 of the Giro an overly enthusiastic spectator’s camera caused a mass pile-up of riders. Contador went down and dislocated his left shoulder twice.
While the Spaniard was able to continue on to victory in Milan, he clearly suffered in the final week, and his own canny riding rather than his condition salvaged victory from the fast-finishing Astana duo of Fabio Aru and Mikel Landa.
While Contador successfully returned to racing last week, winning the Route du Sud 17 seconds ahead of second-placed Nairo Quintana (who is regarded as one of the Tour’s favourites), a four-day race is an entirely different beast to a three-week Grand Tour.
Quite what affect his injury will have on his energy levels, particularly in the Alps during the Tour’s third week, remains to be seen. But one would suspect the energy expended winning the Giro while injured, then rehabilitating a busted shoulder instead of resting up, will see the Spaniard flag badly in the Tour’s final days.
The double
The last man to achieve the double in the same year was Marco Pantani, in 1998. But while his Giro victory has no asterisk next to it in terms of after-the-fact failed tests, the same can’t be said for the Italian’s Tour.
In 2013 the French Senate released the results of doping tests carried out on members of the peloton from the ’98 Tour.
Pantani and 17 others, including second-placed Jan Ullrich, were found to have been using EPO.
Perhaps more influential was that 1998 was the year the Festina Affair tore the Tour apart. While 189 cyclists began the race, only 96 rode onto the Champs-Elysees at its conclusion. The vast majority of those who left had done so as a form of protest against what was perceived as unfair treatment by the anti-doping authorities and police.
Regardless of how Pantani achieved his results, arguably the reason no one has done the double since is Lance Armstrong.
Ignoring that his titles have since been stripped, Lance spent seven years regarded as the best cyclist in the world, and during that run he had a solitary focus: the Tour de France.
While he competed in the Vuelta in 1998 and the Giro in 2009, during his years of dominance his season was geared exclusively towards winning the Tour.
While the Tour had been long regarded the most prestigious race in cycling, at least one of the other two Grand Tours was considered an important part of any cyclist’s season.
For Indurain’s consecutive doubles in 1992 and ’93, his Italian rival Claudio Chiappucci was present for all four races, finishing on the podium three times, and coming sixth on the fourth. Indurain didn’t win the Giro simply by turning up, he had to beat some of the best.
But from 1999 through 2005, if you were serious about winning the Tour you sat the Giro out. If Lance was resting, training and only competing in select races – none of which were the Giro – surely the only way to beat him was with a similar schedule.
As such, his run of victories substantially shifted attitudes towards the Giro. Teams now send their best solely to the Tour; stronger teams view the Giro as an opportunity to blood new leaders, while other teams target victory in Italy as they know their riders aren’t much hope in France.
For this year’s Giro Astana sent Aru as their leader, while Landa came to the fore as well. However the team’s best rider, Vincenzo Nibali, was focussed on the Tour.
Team Sky had Richie Porte as their leader, because Chris Froome is targetting the Tour. Andrey Amador led Movistar’s push for the Maglia Rosa, while Quintana prepared to take the Maillot Jaune.
Cannondale-Garmin sent arguably their best general classification rider, Ryder Hesjedal, to Italy this year. But with no disrespect intended toward the 2012 Giro winner, Hesjedal is not in the same league as Contador, Quintana, Froome or Nibali.
In short, Contador won the Giro against inexperienced riders and lesser lights. Now he comes to the Tour to face his real rivals, all of whom are better rested, have their strongest teams, and have targeted these three weeks as the pinnacle of their season.
So while it has always been extremely difficult to win the double, it has now become borderline impossible. It’s not intended as a slight on Contador to say he can’t win the double, because I don’t know that anyone in the modern peloton can.
Perhaps in his prime, circa 2008-09, ‘El Pistolero’ may have had a shot. But with a bung shoulder and an ageing body, even the cyclist of his generation won’t win two Grand Tours in the space of two months. It’s just not on the cards.
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