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When will Super Rugby crown a new South African or Australian champion?

2nd July, 2015
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The Sharks are looking good. (AAP Image/Sean Middleton)
Roar Guru
2nd July, 2015
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There will be some notable milestones occurring this weekend. There will be a new first-time winner of Super Rugby, the last tournament in its current format, and there will also be a fourth New Zealand team to win the championship.

New Zealand has been the most consistent SANZAR partner in terms of team participation (five) since its inception back in 1996. That consistency has been rewarded with all five teams contesting a final and, after this weekend, four of the five teams winning the title.

However it has taken the better part of 19 years for this to occur, despite the inherent playing strengths and traditions of New Zealand rugby.

South Africa expanded to five teams in 2006 and Australia in 2011.

So far the ledger between the two countries favours Australia with three different title winners and finalists, while only one South African team has won the title (albeit three times) but they’ve provided three different finalists.

Considering the differing history and status of rugby in both countries, the Australian team’s performances in Super Rugby is remarkable.

So how long before we can see the Force and the Rebels contest a final and win the title? Similarly how long before the Stormers, Sharks, Cheetahs and Lions do the same?

The Force are now nine years old and had their best ever season last year, narrowly missing out on a play-offs spot for the first time. Many predictions featured the Force as a strong contender to push on further this year, and their sharp decline asks some obvious questions.

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What was significantly different about the team last year? Was last year a fluke?

Historically the Force were a stronger performer during the Super 14 where they finished mid-table for three straight seasons from 2007-2009. They’ve since endured a horror stretch of bottom two places from 2010-2013, so finishing with the wooden spoon this year isn’t an isolated or unfamiliar experience.

The sustained success of the Force will be achieved on the back of their local club scene, supplemented by smart recruitment but not superseded by it. After nine years, the prospects of the Force making a title run in the near future looks further away than 2014 suggested. Particularly as it doesn’t appear they’ve filled the apparent gaps in their squad for next season.

The Rebels are the youngest team in the competition. However, they’re trending on a similar curve of the Force since they were formed in 2011. An unsurprising wooden spoon place in their first year was followed by incremental improvements and higher ladder positions in the next two seasons, they finished last again in 2014 before achieving their highest ever position of tenth this year.

Based on improvements in their performances this year and greater depth in their squad, much more is expected of them next year when they turn five. Will they continue to make incremental gains or will they have a breakthrough season in the years to come?

Where to now for South Africa’s teams?

Their policy of allowing international players to play in foreign competitions and remain eligible for the Springboks is slowly eroding the player depth of their Super clubs. While the raw talent will continue to emerge through their age grade programs and Currie Cup competition, it’s the growing gap between the emerging and established players that is of concern.

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The introduction of a sixth team will only place further strain on a stretched player pool.

Next year represents a changing of the guard in South African coaching circles with the Bulls, Cheetahs, Sharks and Stormers all looking for new coaches.

It is to be hoped that with this personnel change there will be fresh thinking and an honest embrace of different ways to play Super Rugby for these teams.

The one common denominator shared by previous title winning teams is the coach’s ability to adapt and develop his team to exploit their natural advantages and borrowing ideas from other teams to minimise their weaknesses.

It should be an embarrassment for South African rugby that only one of their teams has won a Super Rugby championship in 19 years.

The Super Rugby III format provides South African teams with stronger chances, increasing the play-offs from six teams to eight and each conference winner guaranteed as host of a quarter-final.

However, the format only serves to provide a structure for the season, games still need to be won or lost, and scoring tries is one aspect of play that drastically needs overhauling among South African teams.

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The odds are leaning in favour of a new first-time champion emerging from the South African conference ahead of an Australasian one.

But which one? And how long will it take?

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