As the State of Origin period comes to a close, NRL fans and coaches breathe a sigh of relief.
State of Origin no doubt brings in a lot of money, interest and theatre to the rugby league calendar year but coaches and fans still brace for the inevitable injuries and suspensions that come with it.
However many players come out of this period in hot form and a hunger to go on and lift the premiership in October.
We will see how your club has fared and what it might mean for the rest of the season.
Brisbane Broncos:
We start with the competition leaders and everyone’s favourite underdogs the mighty Broncos.
They are currently in first position, two points ahead of the Cowboys and six in front of the third placed Roosters.
They have an opportunity over the next four rounds to consolidate pole position for the finals with the Bulldogs away this weekend, followed by two home games against the Tigers and Titans, before playing Manly at Brookvale.
If they win three of these four it’s hard to see anyone else coming first.
As for Origin, it has moderate on the Broncos compared with past seasons only Corey Parker, Sam Thaiday, Matt Gillett, Justin Hodges and Darius Boyd backing up from Wednesday.
Each of these players turned in great performances for the Maroons, especially Parker who was named man of the match.
The only caveat for the Broncos at this stage is the loss of Josh McGuire, who is out for the season with an Achilles tear.
McGuire was one of the form front rowers before his injury but this was not due to Origin so will not impact their rating.
Verdict: A
Canberra Raiders:
Not a lot going on with the Green Machine around Origin time, they had no player at stake for the first two matches and have only had Josh Papalii play minutes for Queensland off the bench.
Papalii played 25 minutes, scored a try, made a few tackles and hoisted the trophy, while Edrick Lee was 18th man.
Canberra sit four points outside of the eight and while they may look long odds to reach the playoffs, finals footy is still very much a reality for them.
They have the Knights, Sharks, Tigers, Sea Eagles and Panthers at home, combined with a trip to the Gold Coast and a Round 26 fixture against the Eels.
They have a lot of work ahead of them but are capable of stringing a few wins together with one of the best attacks in the comp.
Canberra have hardly been affected by Origin at all, Papalii’s inclusion will give him a taste for success, I think he is in for a big finish this season.
Verdict: B
Canterbury-Bansktown Bulldogs:
The Bulldogs have been building nicely over the Origin period after suffering looking shaky for a while, they now sit in eighth place but have a tough month of football ahead of them.
The Doggies play the competition leading Broncos this weekend, followed by a very confident Eels side, then the Sharks at Belmore, followed by away fixtures against the Roosters and Broncos.
They have a host of rep players coming back into their side this weekend, unfortunately they’re all from New South Wales.
The Morris twins, David Klemmer, Josh Jackson and Newcastle bound Trent Hodkinson return from Origin fortunately all without injury, unfortunately all down on confidence after the record score put on them.
We will see how Des Hasler uses Josh Reynolds over the next couple of rounds; will he persist with playing him in the last 20 minutes or will he promote him to the starting line-up if Mbye and Hodkinson start to falter?
The Bulldogs need to keep up the momentum which has seen them consolidate a top eight position and will need their Origin stars to get over the disappointment of Wednesday night.
David Klemmer especially needs to keep his head up and get back to being one of the most damaging ball-runners in the NRL.
Verdict: B-
North Queensland Cowboys:
Unlike previous years the Cowboys now sit in a very threatening position on the ladder and the people up north are getting very excited about this team.
With their remaining nine matches the Cowboys shouldn’t finish any lower than fourth and could possibly nab top spot if the Broncos slip up.
The three Queenslanders from Wednesday will get a much needed rest with this weekend, the Cowboys have the bye and will be happy their stars will get to recoup.
Johnathan Thurston is in career-best form and has one hand on the Dally M Medal. Matt Scott showed why he is still considered one of the best props in the game, dominating the NSW props on Wednesday. Michael Morgan will no doubt be better off from his supporting role in the Maroons side.
James Tamou will get a week’s suspension for a high shot on Jacob Lillyman, which was weird because as far as Queenslanders go he is well down the list of who the Blues supporters want to see the head taken off (cough* Hodges).
The week’s suspension to Tamou is a slight setback on the effect of the Origin period on the Cowboys.
Verdict: A
St George Illawarra Dragons:
The Origin period has not been kind to the Dragons, they have lost four straight and have now lost Trent Merrin for a month through suspension.
They face southern rivals Cronulla Sharks this weekend, the last team they tasted victory against. Josh Dugan was probably the only decent Blues player on Wednesday night, but he looked to be in quite a bit of pain in the second half.
Red V supporters will hope he can remain injury free for the rest of the season as he is vital to the Dragons structure.
The loss of Merrin will sting the Red V and they need to find a win soon, they face the Rabbitohs and Storm in the coming weeks.
Verdict: C
Parramatta Eels:
Despite all the drama at head office the Eels have managed to put on three straight wins, they have the bye this weekend before a blockbuster against the Bulldogs next Friday.
The Eels then travel interstate for matches against the Cowboys, Titans and Penrith (in Darwin).
They don’t play at Pirtek Stadium until Round 25 which means they’ve got a tough finish to the season. The Eels only have Will Hopoate returning from Origin, who appeared to finish the match with negative metres gained, a great feat.
The Eels haven’t been overly affected by Origin but I can’t see them making the finals with the draw they have to finish the season.
Verdict: C+
Newcastle Knights:
After looking like premiership dark horses in the first month of competition, the Knights are now battling to avoid the spoon.
They have Dane Gagai returning after a strong Origin debut for the Maroons but Beau Scott is facing a one-match ban after a challenge on Cameron Smith.
On a more positive note the Knights will welcome back Jarrod Mullen after more than two months on the sideline, they are further bolstered by the return of Kade Snowden from suspension, David Fa’alogo and Jeremy Smith from injury.
The Knights then face the Titans at home, a very winnable match, followed by two away matches against the Rabbitohs and Dragons.
Beau Scott’s suspension will hurt Newcastle but they will find solace with the return of some key players, although they really need to find a win against the Raiders to get out of the cellar.
Verdict: C+
Penrith Panthers:
After what seemed like an entire ward of injuries you would understand if the club from the foot of the mountain were at the foot of the ladder, but the Panthers have toiled hard and have won their last two.
The Origin period has no bearing on their squad but will have an effect on their next opponents the Roosters. The Panthers then face the Storm away, Canberra at home and the Rabbitohs at ANZ Stadium.
They are still far from full strength but will still consider their top eight hopes very much alive.
Verdict: N/A no Origin effect
South Sydney Rabbitohs:
The reigning premiers form has been up and down over the Origin period, more down without Greg Inglis at the back.
They have won just one from three without GI during the middle rounds and they were well out of the contest in those two losses, to the Tigers and Panthers respectively.
GI will get a nice rest while they have the bye this weekend; he looks to be back to his rampaging best if Origin form is anything to go by.
After a great performance in Origin II, Inglis was able to run riot at fullback for the Maroons. A try, an assist, two line-breaks and four tackle busts shows he is back in contention for best player in the world.
The Rabbitohs face the Dragons at the SCG after their bye, followed by three games against low opposition. Souths face the Knights and Panthers at home followed by a trip to Brookvale Oval.
They are currently in sixth position but on equal points with teams four to eight, they will need to consolidate their position in the top eight and may sneak into the top four.
The Origin period has no doubt provided some inconsistent form for the Rabbitohs but now GI has done his duty for Queensland; the premiers might find some form.
Verdict: B+
Sydney Roosters:
The Roosters are in a good position; they sit in third place and have all their Origin stars back without injury.
Mitchell Pearce, Michael Jennings, Boyd Cordner and Aidan Guerra will all back up this weekend against the Panthers.
The Blues players will no doubt feel disappointed and empty from Origin III, while Guerra will feel on top of the world after a strong performance for Queensland.
The Roosters have put in strong performances around Origin times with wins against the Storm, Warriors and Dragons.
Their run home is dotted with fixtures against top and bottom sides but it’s against these top sides where the Roosters have flourished.
This is why punters are backing them to take out the 2015 title.
After the Panthers, the Roosters face the Warriors at home, then the Tigers, Bulldogs and Knights.
Although the Roosters have lost numerous players to the Origin period, most of their stars are non-Origin players.
The hyphen Kiwi crew of Tuivasa-Sheck, Kenny-Dowall and Waerea-Hargreaves has performed well along with Friend, Ferguson and Maloney.
The Roosters have positions 1-17 well covered and will be in the thick of it come September.
Verdict: A-
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
Despite two wins in their last three games, Manly still sit towards the bottom of the table in 14th place with an important do or die match against the Titans to come this round.
The Sea Eagles had no players in Wednesday night’s match, a rarity these days but this enabled Daly Cherry-Evans to focus entirely on getting Manly off the foot of the table.
They are still an outside chance of doing some damage, especially with their roster almost back to full fitness. They do, however, face both the Cowboys and Broncos in the coming rounds along with a trip to New Zealand.
The Origin period has had little effect on the Sea Eagles apart from Cherry-Evans in Game 2 .
Verdict: B
Cronulla Sutherland Sharks:
The Sharks have just two players backing up from Wednesday night, Paul Gallen and Michael Ennis.
Both players were outplayed by their opposition and may have played their last games for the Blues.
The State of Origin no doubt has an effect on the Sharks with their captain missing in action for a few matches as a result.
Gallen’s ribs and hips have copped a few bad knocks this year and the Sharks fans and coach have been counting the cost without him.
Despite Gallen’s omission the Sharks have performed quite well after their poor start to the year and sit two points outside the eight.
Before last week’s loss to Manly the Sharks put on three wins in a row to some fancied opposition, this includes a well ground out win against the Roosters at Remondis and a come from behind win against the high flying Cowboys.
The Sharks will hope Gallen can go the distance as they face three tough away fixtures after their local derby against the Dragons.
Cronulla will take on the Raiders in Canberra, the Bulldogs at Belmore and the Warriors in Auckland.
Verdict: B-
Melbourne Storm:
The Storm can quite rightfully blame the Origin period for their current free-fall on the ladder.
Melbourne have only managed one win in five matches during the Origin period, part of this blame can come especially through the loss of Billy Slater from Origin II and Cooper Cronk, who is now fully fit and ready to turn the Storm’s season around.
Melbourne also welcomes back captain Cameron Smith after the up and down week he has had, along with Will Chambers.
All three Storm players put in great performances for Queensland, especially Chambers who was back at his natural position of centre.
The Storm take on their bogey side the Warriors this Sunday in Auckland, followed by the Panthers, Dragons and Tigers.
If the Storm aren’t able to grab some wins their free-fall will put them out of finals contention altogether.
Verdict: C-
Gold Coast Titans:
Just the one player returning from Origin for the Titans in Nate Myles, who was solid without being brilliant on Wednesday.
The Gold Coast sit in 13th position and are still technically in finals contention but it’s hard to see them winning too many matches with the amount of injuries they have.
The Titans could potentially win their next two matches against Manly at home and Newcastle away (where they won last year).
They have not been to affected by the Origin period losing just a prop but have not been able to benefit from it either.
Verdict: B-
New Zealand Warriors:
A club we don’t usually associate with State of Origin and its affect, the Warriors are usually able to make the most out of this period against weakened teams.
This season the Warriors have had a forward in each side, Ryan Hoffman for the Blues and Jacob Lillyman for the Maroons.
Ryan Hoffman copped a head knock in Game 2 and limped off after 20 minutes in Game 3 , he has been a great purchase for the Warriors but has missed a few games due to injury this season.
Lillyman showed why he is one of the most underrated props in the game as he ran riot over the Blues pack with 13 runs for 130 metres, if he can play like this for the Warriors they will be hard to stop up front.
The Warriors have won four from six during the origin period including their last two.
They face a post origin Melbourne Storm side this weekend, before a tough match against the Roosters in Sydney, then three home fixtures against the Sea Eagles, Sharks and Dragons.
The Warriors need to go on a run and not fade away like the last two years and hopefully for them Ryan Hoffman can stay fit.
Verdict: B+
Wests Tigers:
Like the Sharks, the Tigers have missed the services of their captain Robbie Farah who is now out indefinitely with a broken hand, combined with a shoulder injury in Game 1 the Tigers have not been able to get what they need out of their skipper.
Aaron Woods also returns and the Tigers need him to shake off the last Origin match and get back to his best as they look to avoid the spoon.
The Tigers have been woeful over the last two months, winning only one in their past six. Their only win came against a weakened Rabbitohs side.
After a much needed bye this weekend, the Tigers travel to Brisbane to take on the competition leaders in a match which could get ugly.
Wests Tigers have been the worst side all year when you consider they haven’t had the injuries the likes of Manly and Parramatta have had.
Origin has been very bitter towards them.
Verdict: D
smell the fear
Guest
art, yeah it was all about the surface. im sending you a fax soon
smell the fear
Guest
we will see how they recover and play post origin, somehting the bronvos hve traditionally struggled with
Up the Wahs
Roar Guru
Great analysis I can't disagree with any of what you've said there. Do you think there might be a contingency plan that coaches have with potential Origin omissions. It seems some clubs like the Roosters or the Broncos have a squad they can implement around Origin time to soften its blow. On another note the Queensland players for the Broncos looked quite fresh tonight
Griffo
Guest
I've been keeping stats for wins of NRL teams this season for the purpose of measuring streaks, lines of form, changes in ladder position, and the spread of the competition. I was also looking to make this kind of assessment of how teams performed through the origin period but I'm tempted to reserve judgement until after this round when all teams will have played 16 matches. What I can say is that 4 of the 5 teams that gave the most players up for origin (Brisbane - 4 from 5, North Queensland - 5 from 6, Canterbury - 4 from 5 and Sydney - 4 from 5) have all done relatively well; the other team, Melbourne, have done poorly with 1 from 5. The Storm and the Dragons were 1st and 2nd before the Origin affected the teams and they have both since dropped from the top 4. Wests as you mentioned have gone from bad to worse with 1 from 6 and Newcastle are the other team to perform really poorly over the period with 0 from 6. With Newcastle though I would say this has little to do with origin as the week before the origin period they broke a 5 game losing streak; this is just a continuing trend. I think Parramatta have benefited most though. They've won 4 from 6 over the origin period and they've moved from last to outside the bottom 4. Obviously there's a long way to go before they could be knocking on the door of the 8 but they've managed to gain some momentum. I think you might have underrated them a bit.
art pagonis
Guest
People are shaking their heads about NSW’ flogging by Qld in O3. But really , it is quite simple. Think back. Game 1 was at ANZ Sydney Stadium 11-10 on a slippery and treacherously wet surface. G2, 26-16 on an equally treacherous MCG. G3 on the beautifully manicured and firm Suncorp Stadium….and Qld stayed on top of the ground all night. AND….no matter what people think, injured players carrying that injury into games have been a major reason for both NSW and Qld losing games in recent years. The list of hurt players playing with jabs, or backing up from club games when sore and proud is huge. These guys wanted to give their best, thought they would be viewed poorly, showed up and performed poorly. If you add those factors into a 1-1 series where Billy the Kid had to pull out, Josh McGuire did his Achilles, where Daley Cherry Evans got the bullet and where Josh Papalli and Gagai got a Guernsey, then you can sense the fresh legs in the Maroons was a key factor. And The Qld forward pack were simply fantastically aggressive. So was playing at home a key factor? Of course it was and it cannot be measured. So was the attitude of Qld players to tackling and playing within the rules. NSW lost penalties 5-12 and were very ill-disciplined. The game was over before half time. Mobility and possession, tackling and a firm home ground was just too much for NSW. ARTHUR PAGONIS MANAGING DIRECTOR AUSTRALIA GLOBAL TRADING PTY LTD 10 HERTZ WAY, MORLEY, W.A. 6062 AUSTRALIA PH. 61.8.9377 3833, FAX 61.8.93773877, MOBILE 61. 409918874 SKYPE: apagonis2 WEB: www.ausglobaltrading.com
Jay C
Roar Guru
It also generally will bring the top clubs back to the pack a little bit. If you removed Origin from the middle of the season I reckon you could have the top 8 decided in July, and it would pretty much be the same teams most years.
Emcie
Roar Guru
Aside from freak injuries I can't see origin being anything but good for teams in the long term. Players from the winning team come back full of infectious confidence, while players from the losing team come back with a point to prove (and if they don't have that attitude they probably shouldn't be playing origin) It gives the origin rookies big game experience playing with and learning from the best players of this generation. It let's coaches blood new players against other weakened teams in the nrl, and it also gives coaches an insight into how players (their own or rivals) handle high pressure games. All in all I think how a team fares from origin reflects more on the quality of the coach than anything else
Up the Wahs
Roar Guru
The Broncos, Roosters and Cowboys have been affected by Origin but have handled it really well hence the high ratings. I never said Origin was the ruiner of seasons but what I can say is there are always significant injuries (ie Slater and Farah), Suspensions (Merrin). If you look at the rosters of the top three teams you see they have got some great depth in their rosters to handle it. It's part of the evolution of the game as a coach to brace for the Origin period and make sure you have a squad which can go the distance and we are seeing that so far, the teams with the greatest depth hold the first three positions on the ladder. Could you honestly say Melbourne have performed well without their stars, or even the Sharks
The Prize_Man
Roar Pro
as a Broncos fan i agree. The broncos are usually terrible in this period. the key factors of having the 9,6 and 7 the same every week and bennett's masterful management over the period is the only reason broncos have excelled this year.
Grand Armee
Guest
As a Cowboys fan, this is the only time we've ever got through origin in such good condition. I won't use the word fluke as we've worked hard, but this season is the exception to the rule, so please don't assume it was a breeze for us.
Jay C
Roar Guru
Well written, but terrible premise. Who would you say are the 3 teams most affected by Origin? It has to be Broncos, Cowboys, Roosters right? 1st, 2nd and 3rd. So to argue that Origin has had a negative impact on teams with Origin players is baseless. Even more than baseless it is counter-indicated by the available evidence. If Origin really was the ruiner of seasons that people claim these 3 teams should be tied for last. I personally think it is a myth perpetuated by coaches to take the pressure off themselves. People latch onto it because it seems intuitive, but realistically I just think that the good teams prepare. The most interesting thing this week will be to see how the NSW players bounce back after Wednesday.
Up the Wahs
Roar Guru
thanks appreciate the positive feedback
Up the Wahs
Roar Guru
It's a small price to pay I guess, it's just the Cowboys have a bye anyway, but it's always good to give players a little rest if you can afford it.
Jack
Guest
This is a great article mate - very nice work up of all the teams.
Kingcowboy
Guest
Tomau would have needed a week off anyway, so I am not worried about the one week suspension for the cows. Matty Scott should be given the next twp weeks off and let him fully recharge and get ready for the run home. Wouldn't mind MM also having a week off to rest his ankle. Bring on the Finals!!!!