Stage 7 of this year’s tour sees the riders enter Brittany, with the riders completing 190 kilometres between the towns of Livarot and Fougeres. Another mass sprint finish is expected.
The route for today is not pancake-flat, but with only one Category 4 climb very early in the stage, the peloton should be fairly content that today is a day to save energy for the coming stages.
This first week has been characterised with a nervous bunch, and therefore a large amount of crashes. Today though, for the first time in a couple of days, crosswinds should be far less prevalent, as the riders are further inland.
The riders will have a look at the road book, notice that for once there are no real obstacles in their way and breathe a sigh of relief.
Having said this, the tour in the past has come back to bite riders who do not respect even the easiest of parcours, especially for the general classification riders, they must stay alert to reduce the chance of the ‘unthinkable’ to happen.
The green jersey will be the most fought after competition today for three reasons. The first is obvious, flat stage profile means a mass sprint is expected.
The second is in terms of the intermediate sprint being after only 65 kilometres (One-third) of the stage. There is the potential that certain sprint teams will not allow early breakaways to go as the allure of maximum intermediate sprint points is at the forefront of their ambitions.
The third though is particularly important.
This year’s tour is especially tough for the sprinters. With the race being stacked with hilly finishes or mountainous terrain, pure sprinters like Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel will only see possibly one or two further chances for a stage win before Paris.
Therefore, for a person like Cavendish, who has failed to win so far this event, today is of the upmost importance.
Today will be a crucial day in the green jersey and as such, expect a fast opening 90 minutes to the racing today.
Favourites
Have Etixx been poor or unlucky? I have been asking myself this question time and time again this race. On Stage 2, they did a fabulous job in creating echelons and bringing about a small bunch finish for Cavendish.
However, their lead-out went to early with Renshaw delivering Cavendish in a position that he would rather not be in, as a lead-out man for both Griepel and Sagan.
Again on Stage 5, Etixx in their final lead-out look perfect with four kilometres to go with a lovely looking sprint train but again, a hard headwind finish sees them leave Cavendish all alone to fight for other lead-outs who have picked the right time to go. Once again, a poor finish.
The question is not can they get it right, but will they.
Andre Greipel has been sensational so far this tour, but has been helped by a faltering Etixx.
Due to the injury to both Adam Hansen and Greg Henderson early in the tour, we have, and may not see a full lead-out train for Lotto-Soudal this tour. But for the German, that does not seem to matter.
His outright power on Stage 5 to blow past his competitors on the hard headwind finish was a sight to behold. If he can repeat this type of showing on Stage 7, no matter how well Etixx deliver Cavendish for the finale, the result still may go the way of Greipel.
So far this Tour, I have not listed Sagan as one of my three favourites in an outright sprint. Today I do and here is why.
On Stage 5, he was blisteringly quick in the final, mainly due to coming from so far back in the headwind finish. Being sheltered by other sprinters until the very end allowed him to burst from the pack late on. If the stage was 20 metres longer, the result may have been his.
Once again on yesterday’s Stage 6, he again had the fastest finish of the sprinters on the hilly finale.
With other results on Stage 2 and Stage 4, Sagan has been the consistent rider so far this tour. His over power across so many different types of finishes so far has been fantastic to watch. Expect another top 5 finish at the very least for him.
Other riders that deserve a mention include Arnaud Demare, Alexander Kristoff, Sam Bennett, Davide Cimolai, Edvald Boasson Hagen and John Degenkolb.
Brendon Vella
Roar Guru
Coquard did very well yesterday. As you said, the final ramp should be to his liking.
Matthew Boulden
Roar Guru
The short ~300m kick up to the line of around 4% in gradient is going to make things interesting. Not enough to rule out the likes of Mark Cavendish but it does tilt the scales in Peter Sagan and John Degenkolb's favour. Reckon Bryan Coquard will find the uphill sprint to his liking, so I've backed him as my dark horse for today's stage.