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On Wednesday night, Michael Ennis said to referee Gerard Sutton, “you’re getting overwhelmed by the crowd mate”.
The comment, which occurred moments after Sutton awarded Queensland a penalty for a Beau Scott lifting tackle on Cameron Smith, has been interpreted by some as patronising to the man with the whistle.
Others reckon it was perfectly warranted given the number of penalties Queensland received in the match – 12 to 5 by game’s end.
This comment got me thinking. Can 52,500 people screaming ‘Queenslander, Queenslander’ and hurling abuse at the referee influence the way the referees work the match? The short answer is yes, for Queensland anyway that is.
Since 2007, NSW have only won four matches over the border. This is partly due to the sheer quality and dominance of the Queensland team. But in the 11 matches played in the Sunshine State since the start of Queensland’s dominance, NSW have only won the penalty count once.
If you add up all the penalties given in Queensland over the past 10 years you get a penalty count of 82-41. Exactly double the penalties of NSW. Given them a huge 89 per cent chance of winning the penalty count when the game is played in Queensland.
2007
Queensland 6-5 (Bris)
7-all (Bris)
2008
Queensland 9-7 (Bris)
2009
Queensland 8-3 (Bris)
2010
Queensland 8-3 (Bris)
2011
Queensland 2-1 (Bris)
NSW 4-3 (Bris)
2012
Queensland 6-4 (Bris)
2013
Queensland 8-4 (Bris)
2014
Queensland 6-4 (Bris)
2015
Queensland 12-5 (Bris)
I’m no maths genius, but having a home ground advantage where you get twice as many penalties as the visitors isn’t very fair. To put in terms the folk of Queensland would understand. Imagine having 10 bottles of XXXX on your table, and only being able to drink 5 of them.
Now before the Cane Toads in here start revving up and throwing their banana peels at me claiming it’s the same deal in NSW, I have to say it’s not. In the same ten-year period, 12 games have been played at NSW home grounds. Of those 12 games NSW have only won the penalty count 5 times. Queensland have won 2. The other 5 games, the penalty count was dead even.
With a total penalty count of 61-52 in NSW, it is blatantly clear the difference between refereeing performances in different states.
Almost 30,000 more people attend NSW home games due to larger stadiums, but despite the extra yelling power, NSW only have a 41 per cent chance of winning the count with their home ground advantage.
2007
NSW 4-1 (Syd)
2008
3-3 (Syd)
Queensland 7-5 (Syd)
2009
Queensland 4-2 (Syd)
2010
4-4 (Syd)
NSW 7-5 (Syd)
2011
NSW 5-4 (Syd)
2012
4-4 (Syd)
2013
5-5 (Syd)
NSW 8-4 (Syd)
2014
NSW 8-5 (Syd)
2015
6-6 (Syd)
Are the referees being influenced subconsciously by the crowd? The largest disparity in penalty count was just two days ago at Suncorp where Queensland got 12 to NSW’s 5. In the first 20 minutes of the decider at Suncorp Stadium, the two whistleblowers afforded the home side a barrage of largely unnecessary penalties.
The momentum gained by Queensland as a result not only proved a massive advantage for the Maroons, but sucked the life out of the Blues at the same time. It was at this time when Micheal Ennis spoke to referee Gerard Sutton and said “you’re getting overwhelmed by the crowd mate”
The Queenslanders understandably slammed Ennis for saying this, but after seeing all the stats it’s hard to argue he’s wrong. We can’t assume from our lounge chairs that in the middle of a stadium where you are either everyone’s best friend or worst enemy that we would be completely impartial to a manic crowd.
Referees are trained to tune out the white noise and focus on the game, but when the game is as big as an Origin decider, it would be difficult to drown out all the drunken fans screaming at you – even if you make the right call.
The commentators repeatedly said the crowd last Wednesday was the loudest they’ve ever heard it in Brisbane. With the likes of Cameron Smith and Johnathan Thurston always in their faces with the added pressure of Queensland screaming down the back of their neck, it would have been easy to get overwhelmed and throw them a penalty to shut them up.
With an 89 per cent chance Queensland will win the count up north and 41 per cent chance NSW will come away with it at their home ground, it’s easy to see why NSW are upset.
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