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In more ways than one this weekend against the Springboks is a test.
The concept of a Test match originally stems from the gruelling match being a ‘test’ of the relative strength of the two sides involved. This Saturday though, for Wallaby coach Michael Cheika it takes on several extra dimensions.
When Cheika entered discussions for the Wallaby job, he originally wanted a five-year deal. It seems like a nice round number, albeit a tad long, but there was method in Cheika’s madness.
In taking on the job in the 2015 World Cup year, a five-year deal would get him through to the following World Cup in 2019. Every coach wants time to build a line-up for at least two seasons leading into the World Cup, and Cheika has had barely one.
Of course, he didn’t get the long-term deal, and is currently contracted for three years, but with the turmoil that Australian rugby has experienced recently, any sort of showing at the 2015 Rugby World Cup should be enough to get his contract renewed in 2017.
So having off-loaded the Waratahs head coach job to the capable Daryl Gibson, Cheika is now free to devote all his considerable energy to testing the Wallaby combinations that will not only give the Wallabies the best possible chance in England later this year, but will cement his role all the way through to 2019 in Japan.
Cheika would no doubt like a little time to prepare. Having only one rushed Spring Tour under his belt, where he was little more than a late-notice caretaker, the primary concern is to find some combinations around which he can build a competitive Test team.
It’s unusual to think of a Test match against the Springboks not meaning much, but that is how it is this time, because the object is not so much winning, as it is finding the combinations that create the magic within the Wallabies. There is magic there, indeed magic is about the only thing that has ever won games for Australia.
While the All Blacks rely on excellence across the paddock, and the Springboks are content to bludgeon opponents into submission, the Wallabies have been the leprechauns of southern hemisphere rugby. They have rarely had the luxury of a dominant forward pack. They’ve had to run the ball, move opponents around, deceive them with sleight-of-hand and score tries.
In fact, there is probably no side in the world that needs to score tries more than the Wallabies, because they rarely force penalties upon their opposition, and tend to concede them regularly at the set piece, both scrum and lineout. A team can kick their way to victory against the Wallabies, but the Wallabies rarely kick their way to victory themselves.
To add to the altitude of the peak to be climbed, unless they can find a structurally sound pack for their World Cup outing, this stat will only get worse. The fear should be on the men in gold, because the power scrum will be the weapon of choice at the world tournament and the bullies will be out in force trying to mug the Wallabies behind the bike sheds.
So back to Cheika. As we said, this is a Test match alright, but not for the intensity of the game so much as the need to test combinations, test the heart and willingness of certain players, and to test the instincts of the coach.
The talk on both sides is around the Nos. 10 and 12 selections. The Boks have gone with incumbent flyhalf Handre Pollard, flanked by the in-form Damien de Allende. Not that it matters from the Australian point of view. The object of the Wallaby game is not to combat a specific Boks combination, so much as it is to try out their own.
The hoped-for option among most Wallaby supporters appears to be Bernard Foley and Matt Giteau. Of course, Foley won’t be picked to start, because Cheika already knows what he can do, having seen him at close quarters for the last two seasons.
The slightly less favoured, less comfortable, but vastly more intriguing setup is Quade Cooper-Matt Giteau. In keeping with the test (as opposed to Test) nature of the game, Giteau will of course be picked. It makes no sense to bring him home and sit him on the bench. Neither does it make sense to waste time building combinations with him. In he will go.
So with Giteau and Cooper in the side, the temptation will be to get the ball wide at every opportunity and again, test the wing candidates. There are only two realistic No.13s, Tevita Kuridrani and Adam Ashley-Cooper, and it is unlikely that Ashley-Cooper will be used as much more than a stop gap.
Cheika will want to try out Samu Kerevi at some point, because if Kuridrani goes down, the attack has something of a popgun look about it. But testing can only go so far, and Kuridrani needs the Test rugby. Importantly, the wings need the space he will create to see what they can do.
Rob Horne and Ashley-Cooper are paradoxically the strongest but most conservative wing selections. Horne is strong but lacks agility and raw pace. However, his manic fight to get to the tryline from anywhere within 15 metres in probably unmatched in Australia, and his defence is excellent. As for Ashley-Cooper, he is simply Superman.
While players need to be tested, the game needs to be contested and ideally won, and the team as a whole given confidence. So the starting backline is as strong as it needs to be to fulfil that objective.
Taqele Naiyaravoro hasn’t been brought along for a holiday. Those who were surprised by his initial selection, and even more so by his retention in the pared-down squad of 31, must now realise that Cheika intends to play him. Again, Naiyaravoro needs to be tested against the best – there is no time to leave it until later. Expect to see him come off the bench with enough time to show what he has got.
In the pack, the same paragraph could apply to Rory Arnold. Cheika is not in the business of wasting his time with players who aren’t contenders. Arnold needs Test rugby and the sooner the better. Remember a young John Eales was only in his second year of senior rugby with three Tests under his belt when he embarked upon the 1991 World Cup. Arnold may not be the next Eales, but without playing him Cheika will never know.
Expect to see Greg Holmes make an appearance off the bench. He is a unique entity for the Wallabies, a previously capped international with a long career and a decent run of form this season. Cheika will want to know if the fire still burns for Holmes, and what better scrum to test him against than the Boks.
The likely tight five of James Slipper, Stephen Moore, Sekope Kepu, Rob Simmons and Will Skelton is an 80 per cent lock-in for the England and Wales Tests in the World Cup. Only Simmons is under pressure, but it is, for better or worse, the best scrum Australia has got and its got less than eight weeks to learn to withstand some bulldozers.
Finally, David Pocock will be rested and why not? He’s had plenty of rugby and everyone knows what he can do against the Boks. Cheika also knows how much he is likely to frustrate them and how much they would like to see him off before World Cup time.
With Bismarck du Plessis and Eben Etzebeth and their late, stray shoulders on the prowl, I wouldn’t be risking him either. He is the most valuable player in the Australian team, for his ability to turn a game with a legal pilfer when the Wallabies are under pressure.
As we have said, it is after all a test. A test for Giteau, a test for Cooper, a test for Naiyaravoro and Arnold. It is also a Test for Michael Hooper. But most of all, it’s a test for Michael Cheika and his selection acumen. There is pressure for Cheika, but with risk comes reward.
That’s what Test rugby is all about.