- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
One the most interesting aspects about Saturday night’s 2014 grand final rematch was to showcase how useless statistics can be in analysing a match.
The Swans won the tackle count 71 to 65, clearances 38 to 36, and only just lost the inside 50 count 52 to 51.
In the modern day footy KPI vernacular, if one looked at these stats in isolation to the scoreline you would have at least expected a close game. Certainly not a 15-goal drubbing at the hands of a Hawks team that is in a position where a hat-trick of flags is now all theirs to lose.
Many have lamented the fragile Swans defence, however it is a marvel that such an unfashionable mob containing many fan ‘whipping boys’ (the 2015 version comprising Heath Grundy, Ted Richards, Dane Rampe, Jeremy Laidler, Rhyce Shaw and Nick Smith) simply defy oppositions consistently.
With solid team-based defence structures and quick-release ball to move up the ground, the group still stands tall as the Swans have only conceded around 72 points a match this year.
What is going wrong with the Swans then? Why does 2015 seemingly appear that the team is doing just enough to float above water, in which the collective performances over the last two weeks against Brisbane and Hawthorn began to unearth some very worrying trends developing over the season?
In response to this question I am turning attention to the way in which the forward line and delivery to said forward line is working.
As a comparison to the benchmark, the Hawks’ balance of Jarryd Roughead, Jack Gunston, Luke Breust and Paul Puopolo, a fantastic array of talls and smalls, is complemented beautifully by solid goal-kicking ruckmen in David Hale and Ben McEvoy. The midfield elements such as Luke Hodge, Jordan Lewis, Bradley Hill and Isaac Smith can all go forward or kick long-range bombs. It is an envious mix. Then there is Cyril Rioli.
The Swans under the John Longmire regime have worked very much under an ‘absorb then slingshot’ approach to setting up attacking raids, also relying on sound set-piece structures at stoppages to continue to apply pressure, particularly when the ball is locked in the forward 50.
This approach, to score heavily on rebound or grind sides into submission, has served them well on both small and big grounds over the last couple of years (ironically, three of the four losses in 2015 have been in Sydney).
The Swans’ structure over the last month has been sporadic at best – in both the Brisbane and the Hawthorn games the contest was swung when Buddy Franklin imposed himself for 10-minute periods with three goals in each match. In the latter match against the Hawks, it was a temporary oasis in the second term.
The Swans are not applying some basic footy smarts when either taking the ball into attack or when the forwards try and protect the footy.
The team consistently does not kick the ball to a forward’s advantage, nor seemingly has a structure in place where crumbers are in place and ‘front and centre’. Also gone is the trademark tackling frenzy in which they have prided themselves.
The attacking forays into the forward 50 look presently more like stabs in the dark rather than a sound plan of kicking to a target, which can either mark or create an important contest for men on the ground.
On Saturday night’s aberration, the Swans’ only other goal-kickers apart from Franklin were seasoned midfielders Josh Kennedy, Kieren Jack, Jarrad McVeigh and Luke Parker. There are presently no other options in the structure.
While it is great to have an array of goal-kicking mids (which is one of the Swans’ strengths), a lack of second and third options in the forward 50 influencing the scoreboard is hurting the team.
Adam Goodes, Harry Cunningham, Lewis Jetta, and lesser tried types such as Dean Towers and Daniel Robinson have failed to have consistent scoreboard impact – and in particular apply the pressure that helps keep the ball locked in to increase scoring opportunities. Sam Reid appears to be being groomed in the mould of the tremendously underrated Lewis Roberts-Thompson as a swingman.
Mike Pyke (only one goal in 2015 but previously averaging a goal every two games over 90-odd matches) has stopped going forward to create alternative contests or another bigger option, and Toby Nankervis cannot be expected to be at the forefront of criticism when he is learning the ropes after just two games in the ruck.
Not all is lost, as the returns of Gary Rohan, Isaac Heeney, and the much missed Ben McGlynn from respective injuries should help to broaden the scope of attack over the next month. But this does not obviate another centrepiece in the debate, Kurt Tippett.
The Tippett trade is looking by the day to be the one trade the usually very shrewd Swans recruiting department has gotten horribly wrong.
Without wanting to compare him to cricket’s long-standing whipping boy Shane Watson, Tippett looks lost. In the same vein that Watson never knew whether he was an opening batsmen, genuine all-rounder or middle-order batsmen, Tippett is clearly not understanding his role in the side as a key forward or mobile ruckman who can kick goals. Is it coaching, is it attitude, or is it opposition sides working him out? Or a combination of all three?
The Swans could do well to simplify his role and send him to the goal-square in a deep role – in an effort to provide some confidence and also straighten up what looks to be a very one-dimensional attack around individual brilliance from Buddy.
Tippett is now 28, and unlike Watson the Swans cannot afford to keep picking him on potential, even if he costs around the million dollar mark on the back-ended contract.
Many Swans fans bemoan the loss of Shane Mumford as part of the contract squeeze, and while you can’t have everyone it is time for the Swans’ number eight to show why the Swans sacrificed so much to get him to Sydney.
Who’s in your ultimate team? Pick the best team and compete with other fans for daily prizes on Draftstars. For the best odds on the game try out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Think. Is this a bet you really want to place? Set a deposit limit.