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When the West Coast Eagles finished ninth last year, no one believed they’d be a genuine premiership contender in 2015.
Eric MacKenzie’s season-ending ACL injury, sustained during the NAB Challenge, did little to abate that sentiment.
And when fellow defender, Mitch Brown, followed suit in Round 1, pundits were quick to point out the Eagles’ backline deficiencies, particularly given the retirement of captain Darren Glass in 2014.
But, after 15 rounds of football, the Eagles trail only Fremantle in the minor premiership race.
So how did we all get it so wrong?
Perhaps it has something to do with our tendency – and by ‘our’, I mean everyone outside of Western Australia – to undersell the teams from Perth and Fremantle.
Case in point: Matt Priddis didn’t make the All-Australian team in 2014, yet he won the Brownlow Medal.
Priddis’ lack of recognition may prove to be a microcosm for the Eagles’ own experience this year.
And it should be a wake-up call to everyone dismissing the Eagles’ success as anything other than a soft draw.
Even after 12 wins – including the scalps of the Power in Adelaide, Richmond at the MCG and Collingwood at Etihad Stadium – the Eagles remain somewhat hype-free.
In fact, the noise has mainly surrounded Hawthorn and the promise of the first three-peat since the Brisbane Lions in the early 2000s.
It’s exciting and romantic, and after the Hawks trouncing of Fremantle and Sydney it’s looking more probable than ever.
But premierships have never been won in July.
Indeed, at this stage of the 2009 season, St Kilda had won 15 games on the trot, and went on to win 19 games straight.
Ross Lyon’s team were the best side in May, June, July and perhaps even August, but when it came to September, that form didn’t account for much at all.
And so, the Eagles cannot be ruled out.
Nonetheless, West Coast’s latest injury to star Jeremy McGovern – alas, another defender – has all but given the Eagles’ detractors their raison d’etre.
The Eagles can’t win without McGovern, they say.
But if the Eagles’ season has taught us anything it’s that they are versatile and adapt well to injuries.
McGovern was supposed to play as a forward before the injuries to MacKenzie and Brown forced him into the Eagles’ defence, from which he has been in All-Australian form.
And McGovern joins a host of Eagles pushing for All-Australian selection: Nic Naitanui, Matt Priddis, Andrew Gaff, Josh Kennedy, Mark LeCras and Elliot Yeo have all had outstanding seasons.
In particular, the much-maligned Naitanui has been back to his 2012 best, destroying opposition teams at the centre bounce with his tap work, and punishing them at stoppages with his mobility.
Along with Todd Goldstein, Naitanui has been the in-form ruckman of the season.
And as far as forwards are concerned, Josh Kennedy can’t be beaten. He leads the Coleman Medal race on 53 goals, nine clear of the next best in Jeremy Cameron.
LeCras, while opportunistic, has been more than just a support act, kicking 29 majors of his own.
But it’s arguably the Eagles’ tenaciaous engine room – driving West Coast’s attractive breed of running football – that has been the greatest surprise.
Matt Priddis and Andrew Gaff have averaged 29.9 possessions a game this season, with only the Swans’ Dan Hannebery and St Kilda’s David Armitage averaging more.
And Chris Masten isn’t far behind, averaging 27.7 possessions of his own.
Coach Adam Simpson – a former apprentice of Alastair Clarkson – has taken lessons from his old boss in ensuring his list runs deep.
McGovern will be a big loss, but no bigger than Brown or MacKenzie were when they suffered their season-ending injuries, particularly the latter who was the Eagles’ reigning best and fairest.
Notwithstanding this, the Eagles’ biggest test of the season lays ahead of them: they face three premiership contenders in Sydney, Hawthorn and Fremantle over the next four weeks.
The vultures will be circling.
But if the Eagles have taught us anything, it’s that they’ll be up to the challenge.
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