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There were two moments of utter certainty for me as I watched the Springboks and All Blacks face off in Johannesburg.
As the Kiwis turned over the ball before halftime I knew it would end a try, and as the game entered the last 10 minutes I knew the Boks would blow their lead. These moments of clairvoyance are not a special gift, rather, they are the product of a relentless and unforgiving All Black mentality.
They simply do not believe that losing is a viable option, and this belief is evident throughout every single minute of rugby they play. There are no individuals in this Kiwi side.
It is one fluid entity, a Black hive with a single purpose: win.
The Springboks, up until the last 10 minutes of play met the All Black challenge head on and impressed with some inspired passages of play. The game started at a frenetic pace, with the All Blacks announcing their attacking intention by quick tapping an early penalty.
They proceeded to apply a Blitzkrieg approach in the opening minutes of the game, surely intended to stun the Boks and lead to early tries. However, the Springboks defended well and also strung together nice phases of attack.
A penalty from debutant Lima Sopoaga gave the Kiwis an early lead, but an expertly timed tackle by Bismarck du Plessis led to a crucial turnover in All Black territory and an excellent try. The set up came from a wide pass from Schalk Burger to Jesse Kriel, who offloaded a deft inside ball to Willie le Roux to score under the posts.
The aforementioned try by the All Blacks just before half time was a classic turnover special. The Boks seemed to have secured the ball nicely from a Kiwi box kick, yet the All Blacks regained possession and spread it wide quickly.
A nice break from Sopoaga and offload to greased lightning Ben Smith tied the game just before halftime, silencing the capacity crowd in Johannesburg. There are no moments of safety in a match against New Zealand. They can, and will, score from anywhere on the field when met with complacency in their opposition.
The second half saw both teams kick into a higher gear. Jesse Kriel scored his second try in as many Tests thanks to a great running line which saw him shrug off the experienced Kiwi midfield and race past the tryline. However, as I’ve noted time and again, the Kiwis are most dangerous right after the opposition has scored.
Within three minutes they were in Bok territory and scored from an excellent break by Dane Coles who showed tremendous pace.
Then came the turning point of the match. The Springboks launched successive attacks on the Kiwi tryline, with a try denied by the TMO after Lood de Jager came within inches of touching down on the line. This first barrage ended with a penalty. The next sustained attack led to a yellow card for Sam Whitelock due to cynical play, and the Boks could not have been in a better position to take control of the game.
With a one-man advantage and penalty within five metres, Burger opted for a scrum. This decision ended predictably as it has so many times before; a handling error from repeated pick and go play among the forwards squandered the entire period of attack.
The Kiwis had absorbed immense pressure shorthanded, and used up five minutes of their sin-bin in the process. The Boks lost the game then and there. Such opportunities against the best team in the world are rare and must be capitalised on.
With renewed confidence the Kiwis launched an offensive. A lineout near the Bok tryline gave them the perfect attacking platform, which they brilliantly used to outwit the South Africans with a short, direct throw to none other than Richie McCaw. McCaw steamed through Ruan Pienaar and touched down for a try in possibly his last Test match in South Africa.
There was no question of a Bok comeback, no possibility of a late surge and heroic victory. In fact, the Boks looked completely rudderless after the last Kiwi try. Cobus Reinach made two costly mistakes in his short tenure on the field.
The fist was a poorly timed pass to an isolated Pat Lambie who was met with four Kiwi defenders and subsequently held up for a maul. The second mistake was an inexcusable forward pass.
These soft moments just reinforced the lack of intent from the Boks in those last minutes. They had one foot in the sheds while there was still time left on the clock, but who can be surprised?
The All Blacks had too much self-belief to let them think otherwise. With minutes to go the Kiwis expertly and professionally held possession and ran down the clock. This composure has served them well in the past, and notably eluded the Boks last week against Australia.
The 80th minute penalty conversion was a clinical finish for a team that expected no other result.
For the Boks there are some positives. The midfield combination of De Allende and Kriel is the strongest on the field in years, and must be backed into the World Cup.
The sensible thing for Jean de Villiers to do is withdraw from selection. Willie le Roux shined on attack, and Schalk Burger was immense as usual.
The Springboks will be left lamenting the crucial missed opportunities in last night’s game. Unfortunately, this heartbreak will continue unless they commit to delivering an 80-minute performance every week.
There is potential, and certainly moments of brilliance in this team, but until these Boks believe in themselves the way the Kiwis do, fans will continue to dread the last 10 minutes in future matches.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.