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The father of evolutionary thought Charles Darwin had little time for those in the numbers game.
In fact the renowned English naturalist’s thoughts on those who looked to their calculus, angles and equations to identify and solve issues left one in little doubt as to Darwin’s position; “A mathematician is a blind man, in a dark room, looking for a black cat, which isn’t there.”
However when examining the dominant species of the ‘rugby player’, the All Black, I’m somewhat skeptical of Darwin’s dismissal for what the numbers do reveal.
The facts are the All Blacks remain the most difficult of opponents to defeat in the rugby universe however in looking over some numbers of their few defeats and narrow victories since 2012 there does appear to be a pattern of sorts that are of interest.
The simple fact is that if you want to defeat New Zealand in rugby, it is almost impossible to do if your side is chasing victory in the second half. An aspirant must either be leading the current holders of the Webb Ellis Trophy at half time or be extremely close. Here’s the proof with a half time score in brackets;
16/06/2012 – Christchurch New Zealand 22 (9) – Ireland 19 (10)
20/10/2012 – Brisbane New Zealand 18 (6) – Australia 18 (12)
01/12/2012 – London New Zealand 21 (0) – England 38 (12)
24/11/2013 – Dublin New Zealand 24 (7) – Ireland 22 (22)
07/06/2014 – Auckland New Zealand 20 (9) – England 15 (9)
14/07/2014 – Dunedin New Zealand 28 (6) – England 27 (10)
16/08/2014 – Sydney New Zealand 12 (9) – Australia 12 (3)
18/10/2014 – Brisbane New Zealand 29 (12) – Australia 28 (15)
13/09/2014 – Wellington New Zealand 14 (6) – South Africa 10 (7)
04/10/2014 – Johannesburg New Zealand 25 (13) – South Africa 27 (21)
25/07/2015 – Johannesburg New Zealand 27 (10) – South Africa 20 (10)
Like most Australian rugby fans I’m enthused by the back-to-back victories the Wallabies have achieved in the truncated 2015 Rugby Championship.
Yet it is not lost on me that neither performance thus far could be described as ‘an 80-minute performance’ and has required strong second half displays to attain final victory. While not critical of the victories
I’m far from convinced that the style of rugby displayed by the Wallabies is enough to get the New Zealanders in a sweat.
The Wallabies have generally failed in their first half performances to convert field position into points, either through unforced errors, silly penalties or poor skills. Three aspects of play you will rarely see an All Black side exhibit.
What’s more is that the Wallabies remain addicted to playing a phase or two ahead of where the actual game is in the present; too often the ball receiver is taking possession flat footed and is singular in his threat to the line.
Finally the Wallabies play for width but risk retention in doing so and simply kick away far too much possession and place little to no emphasis on chasing and pressuring the opponent in receipt.
In looking at how the All Blacks have been scored against in this year’s Rugby Championship, it has either come from the driving maul off a line out as shown by the Argentines or by running at the All Blacks with numerous bodies in motion, coupled with the first receiver taking on the line and looking for the angled runner to expose the gap.
Look at the fantastic tries scored by Springbok fullback Willie Le Roux and his teammate, the young and impressive centre Jessie Kriel – that guy must bring a smile to the great Dannie Gerber the way he plays his rugby.
In looking at Le Roux’s try, yes the Boks play with a bit of width to stretch the All Blacks, but it is the cut back in and angled running of Le Roux off the inside pass of Kriel that exposes the All Black defence.
In examining Kriel’s own try, the exciting Handre Pollard and his attack are running the short side, but what is key is that Pollard and his attack are in motion, receives a nice pass from the base and has Mtwirara on his inside shoulder, Kriel running a flat angle back in and De Allende running again from depth looming behind.
Pollard engages the line but then delivers the short flat pass finding the hard running Kriel and its good night Irene. Wonderful try.
Thus far in 2015 the Wallabies have been unable to utilize the driving, rolling maul off a line out as a weapon. Sure it has been used but not with the degree of efficiency as the Brumbies displayed during this year’s Super Rugby tournament. This needs to be addressed. The Wallabies at times have looked particularly dangerous when they put bodies in motion at the line and are willing to look for space back on the inside. Consider the Ashley – Cooper and Hooper tries against the Spingbok’s and furthermore the scything run by Giteau but dropped inside pass to the try line bound Folau as examples.
If I were coach Cheika, I would be seriously considering the Skelton selection for this Test.
It is clear the value the giant can bring to a game, however for this Test and I would actually look back to the future and recall James Horwill and furthermore bring in the imposing Queenslander Samu Kerevi into the inside centre position to punch over the advantage line.
I will leave the evolution to Darwin, but I hope Cheika gets the adaptation of his selection of his side right for the All Blacks Test to ensure the Wallabies are still in it by half time.
A chance? I really hope I just stepped on the cat!
Team:
1. Slipper
2. Moore (C)
3. Holmes
4. Simmons
5. Horwill
6. Fardy
7. Pocock
8. McCalman
9. Phipps
10. Foley
11. Ashley – Cooper (VC)
12. Kerevi
13. Kurindrani
14. Mitchell
15. Folau
16. Polota – Nau
17. Sio
18. Kepu
19. Mumm
20. Hooper (VC) / McMahon
21. White
22. Toomua / Giteau
23. Horne.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.