The Wallabies need to treat this weekend’s Bledisloe Cup match like the first round of their outsider’s tilt at winning the World Cup.
If, on October 31, the Wallabies are going to celebrate having won ‘Bill’ at Twickenham there aren’t many more opportunities to really get into top gear.
The Rugby Championship in 2011 had the feeling of a warm up; this year’s edition has had a similar feel because of the resting and changing of run-on teams. However, the passion and commitment of the players once they get on the field can’t be questioned.
The Wallabies have two Bledisloe Cup matches and one exciting marketing stunt in Chicago between now and the first pool match at Millennium Stadium, Cardiff. The temptation to continue to rotate and try new things against New Zealand in Sydney should be eschewed in favour of getting into the biggest gear they can and peddling hard, seeing just how fast and fierce they can go.
For a team like the Wallabies to win the World Cup – they are and will be outsiders in this pursuit – it is essential they get a run on. Squad management, trialling plays and the like should be put on hold in the few remaining big matches.
The second Bledisloe will probably see a below-strength All Blacks team, while the USA game is a fun, evangelistic exercise; now is the time to throw punches against a real opponent, not a punching bag.
Four areas I’ll be watching this week to weigh up our World Cup chances:
Scrum
The Wallabies scrum has been variously shaky and dominant during the Rugby Championship this season. That could be put down to the range of players in the pack across just two matches, and the injury to James Slipper making one side a little less powerful than usual.
The All Blacks weren’t at their scrimmaging best against South Africa but rarely make the same mistakes twice. Expect a simple, eight-man shove that has been drilled hard in the two weeks since Johannesburg.
The Wallabies are going to come up against an improved unit – creating a solid platform and disrupting the All Blacks’ possession will be a strong showing.
Ball security
The Wallabies improved their accuracy at the breakdown in support of their own runners against Argentina after a poor showing against South Africa. But there was still a long way to go and they still lost the ball too often.
This week the Wallabies will have to play a little tighter than the previous two matches because the All Blacks will slide and eat up any lateral movement. But if the Wallabies adjust properly, playing tighter should also lead to a solid up-tick in safe attacking rucks that allow bulky players to bend the line around the first and second tackler.
If they can’t do this, playing against the very strong defensive units at the World Cup will be a step too far. We’ll look great but won’t make enough ground or score enough points.
Playmakers
Michael Cheika should get Matt Toomua back into the side as soon as he can. Pair him with either Matt Giteau or Quade Cooper.
What we need is a better balance between lateral movement and holding an extra defender with the threat of running. Right now Cooper’s running game isn’t quite there. Giteau showed a few flashes in Brisbane and Toomua’s running game is a strength.
If Cheika can’t put Toomua back in yet, either one of the smaller playmakers has to, for the sake of team shape, sacrifice their own game (and body) and continue to straighten the line. On second phase, someone has to run into Dan Carter and Sonny Bill Williams to make the outside defenders think twice about sliding.
Kill shot
Bledisloe Cups – let alone World Cups – are won by the team that takes a few chances and does the most with them.
The Wallabies haven’t been overly wasteful this year, but the All Blacks never are.
But missing from the Wallabies, despite their pretty play and attempts to use the width of the field, are long-range tries and breaks. The last try against an Argentina side waiting for the siren is the exception that proves the rule.
One simple solution to this is Kurtley Beale on that very try. Watch him support the man closely. Israel Folau – the Wallabies obvious main line-break threat – has made a couple of other breaks but had to bob and weave, looking for space instead of looking for teammates. They were all too far behind.
rugbyGURU
Guest
not bad not bad except I like a more explosive centre - fekitoa or shift nonu out 1 and bring in sbw... pretty much pick themselves though. and Jamie - slades versatility id say has sealed him a world cup spot and experience and big game time has given him an edge in such a key position in the team - 10.
ThugbyFan
Guest
Spot on article Elisha, well said. I have just seen the AB side announced and it is scary. However its 15 blokes versus 15 so WB are in with a chance. Totally agree with the 4 points you raise, certainly our scrum is improving with four solid front rowers to choose from but its the mass behind that is a worry. Its a conundrum for if they go for Hooper and Pocock at the back then Skelton's bulk at the scrum and mauls is needed but can they afford to start Skelton with the HoopCock pairing as the WB lineout will get slaughtered. Perhaps Skelton picks up little Hooper and tosses him up in the air like iceskaters do. One other point about the scrum, the pitch at Sydney Olympic Stadium looks like old Joe's cow paddock. Its really poor, bits chopped up everywhere and quite likely scrums will be collapsing all night as player's feet go from under them. Toomua and Giteau sounds our best midfield pair, both are solid defenders, good playmakers and mostly run straight. So as you say, it comes down to ball security and taking the chances, backing up for the 1 or 2 breaks that happen and convert them to tries (kill shots). Just wondered what you think of the HoopCock pairing. Its a great combo, two little (though huge hearts) terriers being a pest all night, great defenders and causing mayhem to opposition teams which is good, allows us to run the bigger meat and tire them. But is it at too high a price for the set pieces, considering the RWC will be a set-piece-a-thon mixed with a kick-a-thon against the top NH teams? Even the mighty AB, when they are in trouble go back to keeping it tight, hunting as a pack, each supporting the ball carrier and pouring in at breakdowns, to get that yardage and advantage. Or should we start with just one of them (likely Pocock) and more muscle up front, then bring the terrier on at the 50-60 minute mark when the opposition are tired? How do you and the wise ones on the Roar see it? :)
HarryT
Guest
Actually PK, when Cheika was discussing the merits of Foley vs QC, he said that Quade allows him to change his game plan in a way that Foley would never be able to. Going back to the 2014 Tahs Cheika had every backline member playing the best football of their careers. And that is the crux of his coaching; Cheika's greatest asset is that he devises a game plan that brings out the best in his current players. Just think Elsom, O'Driscoll, AAC, KB, Potgeiter and Folau.
marto
Guest
So they intentionally played poorly against the WALLABIES?? They couldnt score a try against wallabies but snaffled two easy ones against the AB`S.. Go figure..
Old Bugger
Guest
Its old habits mate......trophies can come and go every 1 or 4 year(s) and you lose this year, means you havago the following year, to win it back. But winning streaks on the home ground, take years to build and when you lose, then the luxury of winning the following year is not maintaining the streak but, starting a new streak. Players don't like to experience that streak breaking loss, on their watch. Old habits.....!!
kibuib
Guest
NZ teams have perfected the art of support play, look at the Hurricanes and Highlanders this year. Tons of tries made possible by superior support play. TJ Perenara was absolutely magnificent this season, his ability to read the game and run the right support lines rewarded him all season.
Jamie Wearmouth 16
Guest
I rekon it wouldn't do the AB's any wrong to lose in Sydney!
Jamie Wearmouth 16
Guest
My backline is 15. Ben Smith 14. Piutau 13. Smith 12. Nonu 11. Savea 10. Carter 9. Smith
Jamie Wearmouth 16
Guest
I rekoin Hansen will opt for Sopoaga over Slade for the world cup, also rekon he will give Sopoaga a run in Auckland!......Piutau Should definatly be taken to the cup as henis the form winger in the world at the moment....always beats the first tackle at least.
rugbyGURU
Guest
Yes I still would have fekitoa in my lineup anyday... Who would be your starting 23 for the world cup final? What I think will happen is 1 Tony Woodcock 2 Dane Coles 3 Owen Franks 4 Brodie Retalick 5 Sam Whitelock 6 Jerome Kaino 7 Richie Mcaw 8 Kieren Reid 9 Aaron Smith 10 Dan Carter 11 Julian Savea 12 Ma'a Nonu 13 Conrad Smith 14 Charles Piutau 15 Ben Smith 16 Kevin Mealamu 17 Wyatt Crockett 18 Charlie Famuina19 Luke Romano 20 Sam Cane 21 TJ Perenara 22 Beuden Barrett 23 Malakai Fekitoa What I would want to happen is 1 Crockett 2 Coles 3 Franks 4 Retalick 5 Whitelock 6 Kaino 7 Mcaw 8 Reid 9 Smith 10 Carter 11 Savea 12 SBW 13 Nonu 14 Piutau 15 Smith 16 Taylor 17 Franks 18 Laulala 19 Romano 20 Victor Vito 21 Perenara 22 Barrett 23 Fekitoa
rugbyGURU
Guest
This is the all blacks named team to face australia in sydney - i wasnt tooo far off! New Zealand: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Nehe Milner-Skudder, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Luke Romano, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Tony Woodcock. Replacements: 16 Codie Taylor, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Nepo Laulala, 19 Samuel Whitelock, 20 Sam Cane, 21 TJ Perenara, 22 Beauden Barrett, 23 Malakai Fekitoa. Date: Saturday, August 8 Venue: ANZ Stadium, Sydney Kick-off: 20:05 local (07:05 ART, 10:05 GMT, 12:05 SAST, 22:05 NZST) Referee: Wayne Barnes (England) Assistant referees: Nigel Owens (Wales), Federico Anselmi (Argentina) TMO: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa)
taylorman
Roar Guru
The charging up is just a learning curve for Fekitoa but I'd rather that than hesitancy or half measures that defenders so often take- 'covering' their man. Smith does that but is timing and judgment is spot on. Fekitoa is a breath of fresh air on defence and the best spot tackler around by far.
rugbyGURU
Guest
yes oliver i like your team very much - and while fekitoa is an incredible one on one defender he does have a tendency to come out of the line to fast - like hes to eager to make the tackle!! but if he keeps to the defensive structures that mastermind wayne smith will have in place, then the midfield combination of these two will be phenomenal... and i dont think nonu will be there in sydney t-man... also yes oliver verrry keen - see you there...also who would be your bench players??
Taylorman
Guest
So you want a repeat of 2011 then? I'll have one of those to go then please...
tsuru
Guest
It seems to me that the game against the Eagles is going to attract as big a crowd as the one against the All Blacks. I'm living in New York and I've met 2 New Yorkers who follow rugby a bit, who both say they're going to Chicago for the game. Yes, I know it's a very tiny sample and it's anecdotal but I'm impressed and I'm betting the stadium will be full. So that will at least ensure that the Wallabies have the atmosphere of a big match. And I'm thinking the Eagles are much more up for a big game than they were against the ABs as they've just finished the Pacific Nations Cup (unsuccessfully) and will be looking for a big result before the World Cup.
Nick
Guest
Games like 2003 mean more to me right now. Wallabies blown away with 50 put on them in Australia and then a relatively comfortable win over the ABs in the semi final. That's the déjà vu I'm hoping isn't around the corner
Nick
Guest
Do you guys even read the articles? The RWC isn't decided this weekend and this game means nothing in any real sense towards deciding it. You're all caught up in trying to play "gotcha" and missing the point completely. To be honest AB fans are better positioned than any others in world rugby to understand how form into the cup means nothing in deciding who wins it
Nick
Guest
Don't understand this at all
Nick
Guest
The article is about RWC That's the meaning I was indicating. As it was that was pretty obvious, get it yet?
Taylorman
Guest
Yes I like that one...Nonu will be there instead of SBW but that's my best XV as well. Extremely solid and hard tackling backline, Fekitoa becoming one of the best defenders one on one around. Still recall the hit on C Smith and the steal on Folau. Neither knew what hit them.