There’s remaining Rugby Championship game for the All Blacks, with the clean sweep of that particular tournament’s trophy under threat for New Zealand. An Australian side building in confidence and eager to continue that winning momentum is the challenger.
There’s one remaining home Test match after that, before the World Cup squad of 31 has to be finalised. The Bledisloe will potentially be up for grabs and New Zealand’s impressive home record – stretching back to 2009 in Hamilton against South Africa – at risk.
In terms of replicating the white hot intensity of knockout footy, Steve Hansen can be thankful the Wallabies have everything to play for in Sydney and Auckland.
The motivation is there for both sides and given Hansen’s desire to experiment with the squad since his hand was forced with the Apia Test match, it’s inevitable he’ll make a few changes in these remaining Tests.
His comments that the Bledisloe and World Cup are his priorities this year suggest that he will put out his best available side in Auckland. That implies the experimentation is more likely to continue in Sydney to some extent. Already Nehe Milner-Skudder has been picked to make his debut on the right wing.
If that means coming off a loss in Sydney then there is much merit to a do-or-die scenario in Auckland. A Rugby World Cup final has a similar feel to it, albeit with much higher stakes.
That would mean, however, surrendering the Rugby Championship trophy to the Wallabies. I can’t imagine Hansen would like giving a main rival such a confidence boost just before the World Cup. Topping the Pool of Death likely opens an easier route to the final.
Rugby World Cups are notoriously unpredictable but who would you most like to meet in the final? To me that question is best answered by how would New Zealand get to the final?
A quarter final match between the Springboks and Australia would arguably be the best match-up from a New Zealand perspective, and that means Australia coming second in their pool and South Africa winning theirs.
I say this because England’s record against South Africa is not great, and regardless of who wins that hypothetical match, either side is going to be physically beaten up by the experience.
Beating the All Blacks and winning the Rugby Championship and having a shot at the Bledisloe might scupper those plans. I am wary of a Wallabies side full of confidence. It might get bold and behave like a grey roo and deal an unexpected killer blow. The hosts as final opponents seem less of an ambush.
Of course, there’s only so much forward planning you can do when it comes to World Cups. The trick is not to look too far ahead and concentrate what’s in front of you and get the job done.
For Steve Hansen, that means signing off on the Rugby Championship and Bledisloe Cup and setting in stone which players he is going to include in his Rugby World Cup 31-man squad.
When we eat a packet of licorice all sorts, we all have our favourites. But sometimes we are pleasantly surprised at some combinations we didn’t care too much for in the past. Other times we tire of our favourites and occasionally we marvel at ones we didn’t know even existed or had paid no attention to previously.
Steve Hansen has some basic block combinations he can go with.
1. I know what I like so let’s stick with the favourites.
This is a team Hansen thinks can get the job done. Ma’a Nonu won’t figure in these two games I’d wager so that’s likely to see Sonny Bill in the fray.
Charlie Faumuina is another on the injured list so this season’s surge in form will be relied on for World Cup. It may not be the best side individually, but it’s perhaps the most rounded side with a bit of everything.
15. Israel Dagg 14. Ben Smith 13. Conrad Smith 12. Sonny Bill Williams 11. Julian Savea 10. Daniel Carter 9. Aaron Smith 8. Kieran Read 7. Richie McCaw 6. Jerome Kaino 5. Sam Whitelock 4. Luke Romano 3. Owen Franks 2. Dane Coles 1. Tony Woodcock
16. Wyatt Crockett 17. Keven Mealamu 18. Ben Franks 19. Brodie Retallick 20. Sam Cane 21. TJ Perenara 22. Beauden Barrett 23. Malakai Fekitoa
2. Random mix selection
This is a mixture of players who have been there and done that already for New Zealand but are not in the best form, players who have failed to impress in their brief outings or players who have shot up in the esteem of the selectors.
15. Nehe Milner-Skudder 14. Cory Jane 13. Malakai Fekitoa 12. Ryan Crotty 11. Charles Piutau 10. Lima Sopoaga 9. TJ Perenara 8. Victor Vito 7 Sam Cane 6. Liam Messam 5. Jeremy Thrush 4. Brodie Retallick 3. Nepo Laulau 2. Codie Taylor 1. Tony Woodcock
16. Joe Moody 17. Hikawera Elliot 18. Ben Franks 19. Luke Romano 20. Liam Messam 21. Tawera Kerr-Barlow 22. Colin Slade 23. Charles Piutau
3. I’m not expecting great things but surprise me.
I like red licorice, personally, and though I can tolerate black licorice acting as sandwich filler, those little gnarly sticks that find their way into the back molars and cling on there like limpets are not my favourite.
But sometimes, you get a few and start to appreciate their moreish value. This could be veteran players in a rut or relative rookies playing in unfamiliar positions or combinations that don’t seem to make a good fit.
15. Israel Dagg 14. George Moala 13. Ryan Crotty 12 Malakai Fekitoa 11 Charles Piutau 10 Daniel Carter 9 Andy Ellis 8. Kieran Read 7. Sam Cane 6. Liam Messam 5. James Broadhurst 4. Luke Romano 3. Charles Faumuina 2. Keven Mealamu 1. Joe Moody
16. Wyatt Crockett 17. Hikawere Elliott 18. Ben Franks 19. Sam Whitelock 20. Richie McCaw 21. Brad Weber 22. Colin Slade 23. Julian Savea
You could make a lot of these teams and play around with who starts and who comes off the bench. The first team is probably closer to the Test side in Hansen’s head but many of you will undoubtedly single out Luke Romano starting ahead of Brodie Retallick and think that unlikely.
This is how the two started out their Test rugby and Romano’s injury really put the spotlight on Retallick’s huge work rate with Sam Whitelock, and how much the pair got around the park. I know many would not even have Romano in the team but who would be the lock coming off the bench to add impact now that Patrick Tuipulotu is injured?
James Broadhurst might still get a chance to show his impact value instead of starting much like Liam Messam might get a chance to show Hansen that Victor Vito is not the only one who can add impact when Kaino goes off or injury occurs to a back-row forward.
Yet to me the sight of a fresh-legged Brodie Retallick coming on after half-time is a depressing thought for any opponent after making hard work in the scrums in the first half.
Consider the selection against Scotland last November.
1. Joe Moody (6) 2. James Parsons * 3. Charlie Faumuina (25) 4. Jeremy Thrush (10) 5. Dominic Bird (1) 6. Richie McCaw – captain (135) 7. Sam Cane (21) 8. Victor Vito (25) 9. TJ Perenara (9) 10. Daniel Carter (101) 11. Charles Piutau (12) 12. Ryan Crotty (11) 13. Malakai Fekitoa (7) 14. Colin Slade (15) 15. Ben Smith (36)
16. Dane Coles (25) 17. Wyatt Crockett (34) 18. Ben Franks (40) 19. Luke Romano (16) 20. Liam Messam (38) 21. Augustine Pulu (1) 22. Sonny Bill Williams (21)
23. Julian Savea (31)
It’s not a bad team, but certainly not a great one with good combinations. Not a bad bench either with a bit of everything for everyone but equally not ideal. Their performance was pretty horrid from a viewing perspective but they got the job done when many thought Hansen had gone too far.
Just how far will Hansen’s experimentation go for these Bledisloe Tests? How set in stone are the squad positions or who is causing the sleepless nights and, indeed, who will still be given a chance to stake their claim or prove that they have the goods?
What difference will there be between the Sydney and Auckland Tests in terms of selection? Will that be based on results – as in a win is needed – or the amount of experimentation first up? And if a largely experimental side wins, does that lead to more experimentation.
What licorice All Blacks do you think Steve Hansen will pull out of the bag over the next fortnight?
Kia Kaha
Roar Guru
The key Tman is not to give them space. Make them attacking kicks rather than clearing kicks. Use multi phases to get the ball into the NZ half rather than kick and chase. NZ will be quite happy for line outs so keep the ball alive and recycle that ball at pace. Easier said than done but once on attack and the type of ball available, Foley can sum up what the best option is.
Taylorman
Guest
It is interesting if the Wallabies have actually improved as there are no one new, in fact, they've picked up a couple of oldies instead. So any improvement will largely be attributed to the coach, will really serves to illustrate how poor the previous one was, or how poorly the current players were playing back then, because there are no other explanations when personnel have largely remained the same. Given that, extend that out to wondering how much improvement can be gained from a team that was previously losing with the same players? Should they win tonight that would be some improvement because this AB side is certainly better than last years in terms of potential. On the game I think kicking to NMS would be suicidal and can't understand why that is being suggested. Kicking to any if the back three the same. Sure they might unsettle NMS due to nerves but the risk that they don't is huge. If he's given space that will only result in a counterattack that the Wallabies selection doesn't cater for. If NMS is allowed to get back over the advantage line, and is caught, the bigger AB forwards, and/ or backs will do their best to take that to the line. very interesting selection this Wallaby back row.
Kia Kaha
Roar Guru
From the November tour to now it may seem imperceptible but the Wallabies have improved. I think they could be a real handful if allowed to get a roll on. This is ideal preparation for both sides for the RWC.
Kia Kaha
Roar Guru
Good stuff bennalong. I like your confidence in the players and your faith in the team. The opening stanza is crucial as I believe Cheika has picked a squad that needs to build a lead and then negate the late NZ charge. The pressure is there for both sides but the rewards are many. I can't wait. Enjoy the game.
bennalong
Guest
Love your work here KiaK From a Oz perspective you've demonstrated what we're up against with the great depth NZ has across the board. Thankfully we each have only 15 men on the field. Cocky NZers have a right to be cocky (especially when they live in sunny Sydney!) but we can beat you on the day and your discussion includes that possibility. If you read the Roar (and I know you do) you'll have no doubt been surprised at the number of DH's here that are negative about our players. I personally am not of that persuasion, even though I have no hesitation in acknowledging New Zealand rugby as the best in the world. It defines you. But therein lies your weakness. All your blokes have to turn up to play and carry the burden of expectation! This time, under Cheika, I believe our blokes will be champing at the bit, and if the game plan is prescient enough, we'll knock you over. I'm not worried about the outside backs. I think Hansen will play the game tight and run SBW down both the 1 & 2 channels hoping to damage Gits either physically or mentally. We'll stop him but he'll be a handful and could take our game plan away from us. On the other hand, I'm hoping Gits and Foley will outsmart Sonny Bill and shake his confidence in defence Our best hope is to score early and get our crowd behind us, because nothing pisses me off more than the number of Kiwis that call Australia home except when the Bled is up for grabs. Hoping Big Will can make a big impression off the bench. Hooper and Pocock, now aka the Pooper, will not let us down!
Tim O'Neill
Guest
I don't think Aussie can go the 80 at full tilt. They will come out fired up and NZ will absorb the pressure and the physicality (of which when the Warratahs went all physicality toward the end of the SR it looked a little misplaced at times etc). Finally all that running around and trying everything will tire/frustrate the green and golds, and they will flame out, making mistakes to be punished. The last quarter could be a route, due as much to an awesome AB bench and the fittest rugby team with amazing skill sets at unbelievable pace. This has been excellent WC preparation to play SB at home in a charged match, now the WB. Absolute must win games, just like WC. No disrespect to OZ here, as they are advancing, but this is a must win game for NZ just like knock out WC games. I could not think that it is anything other than that.
Kia Kaha
Roar Guru
I think there's much merit in that. That home record shouldn't be discarded so easily for one. There's enough time to recover. There's the injury threat so maybe someone like Woody gets a rest and Aaron Smith gets pulled early. You can't place the players in cotton wool, though. The way our pool games shape is our top side should take on Argentina first up, and pretty much our top side against Tonga. Then three matches together with injuries only requiring changes. Form shouldn't be a question given the squad that's going to get picked.
Digby
Roar Guru
I do really hate licorice. i am quite comfortable to be honest in whoever Hansen picks and mix, although in contradiction to myself, continuity would be nice. Can certainly take comfort that whomever make up the 31 will be in good form but how many more games can we afford to pick and mix exactly? It would be my preference that the Eden Park test displays our best 23. Cohesion should not be ignored for too long.
Kia Kaha
Roar Guru
Exactly right. And they should be testing him with Folau. It's criminal how little his aerial abilities have been used on attack. Test that mental strength by sending a player with known aerial skills against him. That's twice now. Next strike and I'm out...
Kia Kaha
Roar Guru
It appears this is a team of getting the best players out on the field RT and often that does not mean the best balanced side. So it's up to those individuals to work their socks off to make this gamble come off. I don't doubt the heart of Hooper but potentially that pack could be in for a torrid time.
Kia Kaha
Roar Guru
Haha, given how Australia wants to play that potentially could be the case. But Hansen has a pack that must not only weather the storm but tax the Wallaby game breakers physically. They must earn the right for SBW to shine instead of putting the pressure on him to create. He's at his most dangerous when he has freedom to move as indeed is the case with his counterpart or any other test player worth his salt.
Kia Kaha
Roar Guru
Yeah OB it's great the stakes are high with both sides with everything to gain. I like how this match appears to be panning out but as you say much depends on the intensity and execution both sides bring this Saturday.
Kia Kaha
Roar Guru
Great point DC and I hear what you're saying. Hansen has placed his safest bet. He's essentially saying to Cheika this is pretty much the best side I can put out so the ball's in your court. Cheika has gone more outside the box and made more of a gamble. He's essentially saying that side's not too shabby but here's a speed ball that might catch you off guard. Cheika perhaps has the more pressure on him but he hasn't gone into his shell and tried to negate NZ. Consequently he has more to win because he has made more of a gamble. Hansen, on the other hand, stands more to lose by the lack of experimentation on his part. NMS and Romano are probably the only talking points with the players he has available. He can point to a lack of intensity but this is a side that should by all accounts win. So more high risk from Cheika but a bigger dividend and much more low risk from Hansen and, therefore, a lower payout. A win for NZ does mean Hansen can tick two trophy boxes and rest a few more frontline players. Then again there is a home fortress to protect and he may opt for continuity with only a few minor tweaks. Depending on how Cheika's gamble pays off, he continues the Fardy Pooper experiment or he goes more traditional the next match. Fascinating combinations as you allude to, albeit subtly. ;)
Digby
Roar Guru
I hate licorice.
Old Bugger
Guest
KK Good read mate. Yes, an envious position for Hansen to find himself, init?? But envy or not, it still comes down to making the right decisions in the end and trusting, the intended performance from those decisions, will eventuate. Kind of like a boom or bust outcome.....??
stainlesssteve
Guest
i mean a real cricket score, not the latest Aussie effort
stainlesssteve
Guest
Yes, it could be Sonny Bill's day. I've felt that he's been at pains to develop as a team member, rather than to star; well, he's paid his dues and earned the right to put out the big fend and go hard. But, there are a dozen All Blacks who could have that sort of game. Looks ominous. Cricket score?
RT
Guest
The AB team might be the best they can field but I think the wallaby team is not. How Fardy keeps getting picked is beyond me. Nonetheless I wish the boys the best for this weekend. The team lacks balance and is not the best XV IMHO but let's see what happens.
The Battered Slav
Guest
Nice read by the way Kia.
The Battered Slav
Guest
I'd think they'd be targeting NMS in the air to test his mental state more than his physical ability. Every debutant/newbie will be vulnerable mentally to a certain extent, and it's just sensible to test this vulnerability early to see if it's something that can be exploited further throughout the game. I'm actually looking forward to seeing how he goes. Great prospect when looking at his Super Rugby form, but there's a lot more pressure and a lot less space/time at test level, and he's unlikely to find the going as easy as he did at the Canes. Send a few his way early and ask the question, then turn those questions into forceful statements if he doesn't answer them well enough at the outset.