The Formula One midseason is a time for quiet reflection. Factories are shut down, forcing racing staff to spend time with their loved ones in some sort of relaxing situation. But midyear is also a time of high bloodshed.
Traditionally the silly season lights up at this point, perhaps springing from the multitude of idle hands and minds taken away from their otherwise productive settings.
For peak midseason contractual violence, one need look no further than Toro Rosso, which has a fearsome reputation for ruthlessly terminating drivers after only the briefest moments in the sun.
I could list the many youngsters chewed and spat out by the team, but this column is simply not long enough.
But this is the central tenet of Toro Rosso’s existence: it is a training ground for future Sebastian Vettels. It has achieved this goal thrice during its decade-long tenure, with Daniel Ricciardo Daniil Kvyat and, uh, Vettel. That’s some strike rate.
Certainly no one is supposing that the axe is will be imminently wielded against either Max Verstappen or Carlos Sainz after only six months in the job, but the Sword of Mateschitz perpetually hangs over each of their heads. It comes with the Red Bull territory.
So at this point of natural analysis, who is in the box seat for a Red Bull promotion that is statistically unlikely to eventuate, and whose Red Bull career is most likely to meet an untimely end?
Let’s start with the hard facts. Max Verstappen leads Carlos Sainz by 13 points in the championship standings after a phenomenal fourth place finish in Hungary, though Sainz retired with a power unit problem for the third grand prix in a row, somewhat skewing results.
“STR unfortunately should have more points than we have at the moment,” said Sainz. “My position in the championship and STR’s position in the championship doesn’t really reflect where we should be.”
Zoom out and Sainz has been classified ahead of Verstappen six times from 10 races, while in the four races the pair have both been classified, Sainz has finished ahead all but once.
So it wouldn’t be contentious to say Sainz holds a slight edge, even if the teen prodigy receives significantly more attention for being unable to drive himself to the circuit.
“I’m pretty happy,” agreed the Spaniard. “I think it has been a positive start to the season. Halfway through I can say that I’m more or less where I expected to be in terms of performance.
“Maybe a tiny bit better [than expected] to be honest – you never expect to get P5 in your home race in qualifying or some of the other strong qualifyings I’ve had.”
Indeed, Sainz out-qualified his teammate four times in a row before Verstappen found some traction at the Red Bull Ring.
“I think the beginning of the season it was qualifying I had to work on,” admitted Verstappen. “But I think [overall] it was a pretty good start.
“I think it’s a seven or eight – I’ll never give myself a 10. I always want to improve myself, and I think I’m in a good way.”
Sainz holds a 6-4 qualifying advantage, but the pair share an average qualification result of 10.3 – impressive for rookies, doubly for teens.
“I’m still learning a lot. I’ve only done one year of car racing, so sometimes it can be a bit tricky – but the team is helping me a lot. I see this as a big learning year for me.
“I’m getting better and better all the time, not only in qualifying but I think in every aspect.”
This is the statistic upon which all Red Bull driver decision has been based – what is the driver’s attitude to being beaten, and how does he improve?
Ricciardo is a prime example. Results tended to go Jean-Eric Vergne’s away until the final year of his partnership with the Australian, when Ricciardo’s thirst for improvement became obviously unquenchable, after which we was selected for promotion. Likewise Daniil Kvyat 12 months later.
“They’ve been the highlights of the season so far,” Red Bull Racing boss Christian Horner told Autosport, effusing over Sainz and Verstappen. “Giving young talent a chance pays off.”
As entertaining their closeness may be, and as good as it is for the sport to have a flow of talented young drivers getting seat time, there is an undeniable reality at Toro Rosso that its drivers are assets in which Red Bull has invested heavily and from which it will eventually want a return – and it is this idea that eludes to the choppiness churning just below the surface.
Either Red Bull Racing adopts a Toro Rosso model and itself churns out its weakest driver every 18 months, or one of these young drivers, so evenly matched at present, will be turfed from the energy drink’s family.
It may have been only six months, but Max Verstappen and Carlos Sainz are rapidly hurtling towards middle age in Toro Rosso terms. The clock is ticking.
Who’s most likely avoid the impending scrap heap?
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