The disappointment of the London Olympics can be summed up by the image of 20-year-old Emily Seehbom with cap and goggles in one hand, the other used to wipe the tears away.
No individual gold medals, the worst performance in the pool since 1972, a team in shock and disarray.
FULL AUSTRALIAN OLYMPIC TEAM FOR RIO 2016
Three years later and Australia is a swimming powerhouse again, second on the medal tally in Kazan, a united and successful team, perfectly poised for Rio.
How was change achieved and how did that change lead to success?
It all started with an independent review and the Bluestone report, which found that “cultural factors did play a significant role” in the unpleasant experience at the London Olympics.
There was the social media obsession, the Stilnox scandal, disruption between the leadership group and the athletes, and lack of ability to stand up to pressure when it counted.
So what gave us a strong, unified swimming team in Kazan with no scandal and the ability to pull out big performances?
The first explanation is simply age. Seehbom was only 20 and Cate Campbell was still finding her feet at London. In the three years since, Australia has unearthed strong young talent in Bronte Campbell, Mitch Larkin and Cameron McEvoy, all of whom are potential individual gold medalist come Rio.
So is our current group of swimmers more talented than the squad that took to the pool in London? America would say no, arguing that Australia’s success can be put down to the omission of some of their heavyweights, no bigger than Michael Phelps.
Yet the events Australia did win in Kazan came over the established champions, with Seehbom extracting revenge on Missy Franklin three years later and Larkin and Campbell emerging victorious over world-class fields.
Talent has definitely developed and matured, yet it can only flourish if it is placed in the right culture.
The second change that occurred is how the team is managed and shifts in cultural norms. A “lonely culture” was used to describe London, so how has the swim team become more united?
For a start, restrictions and guidelines have been added to athletes’ social media usage, and tighter regulations on athlete behaviours have ensured that London will never be repeated. Stronger media scrutiny of the team has left athletes less willing to step out of line. Grant Hackett has also provided an old head who has knowledge of what it takes to succeed at the top level.
But ultimately, this cultural revolution has been led by the swimmers themselves, with Seehbom openly admitting that her social media fixation cost her in London.
They are now back to being titled ‘The Dolphins’, adding a sense of collective identity to one of Australia’s proudest sporting teams. Yet cultural enforcement cannot come from the swimmers, it must come from the administrative hierarchy, a flow-on effect that was not occurring in London.
Like any sporting failure, the first to depart after London was the coach. In 2013 Leigh Nugent was replaced by Dutch maestro Jacco Verhaeren – the man responsible for coaching Olympic champions Pieter van den Hoogenband and Inge de Bruijn.
For such a long time the head coach of the Australian swimming team has been an Australian, which was fine when Australia was a world leader in the sport. But times have changed, the rest of the world has caught up, and it was time for Australia to look beyond its shores.
Yet change also happened at an administrative level. It is, after all, the administration and coaches who develop the rules and standards that were so abused in London. CEO Mark Anderson took over in 2013 and has shown why Hockey Australia flourished under his leadership.
Yet leadership is only as good as the culture and the talent of swimmers who participate, the reason why each element is only successful when combined together, a puzzle that was almost complete is Kazan, but still has some minor figuring out to do.
With these changes the dolphins are perfectly poised for Rio in a year’s time. The Olympics are the pinnacle of the sport and will be history’s supreme judge.
craig watson
Roar Rookie
Pleased at least someone i s taking the time to write about swimming. After a reasonable effort at the recent worlds by our Dolphins. The babies of Aussie swimming have shown up the oldies by winning the top nation gong at the world junior titles which has just wrapped in China overnite. The most pleasing thing is that we whipped the Yanks for a change. Standouts for the Dolphin Pups were backstroke r Minna Atherton and freestyler Kyle Chalmers. So strong was the depth of the team that we took out three of the four freestyle relays. Hats off to our future swimming stars.
Wombat
Roar Rookie
You and I are very much on the same page; both with the only "pencil em in"/secure bets and AUS prospects. Larkin (200bk) & Seebohm (100bk) both deserve favouritism at this point but the competition in either event is such that neither qualify as sure things. Likewise, the presence of Sjostrom for the Campbells in 100fs. However, all look secure medal bets. A Campbell could win 50fs but its more open than the 100 so it could well be that only one collects any medal in that event. Larkin could win 100bk but probably more secure bet would be medal. Similar scenario for Seebohm in 200bk. Wilson clearly in medal picture in W100bk. McEvoy very much in the medal mix in M100fs but this is likely to be harder in Rio so not necessarily a secure bet. Should she replicate Kazan form in Rio, Ashwood may be in medal picture for 400/800 but 400 esp likely to require faster times for minors. M4X200 probably flattered by their bronze; a lot of Euro teams especially are likely to have their act together in Rio so I rate them an outside chance at best. The return of Elmslie and/or Palmer would strengthen W4X200 and probably see them well in medal contention but some of the Rio outfit have major question marks. As long as AUS lacks a competent 100flyer, medals in M4XMED will be precarious bet. The clear dominance of either Campbell on anchor means, at worst, a minor medal can be rescued in W4XMED but the instability of BRS particularly & fly make anything more than a place/medal bet a rather brave proposition. Magnussen back to fitness = M4X100 a medal chance. Magnussen absent - don't bother. Hopefully the lessons of Kazan will fully percolate through Horton's brain & that of this coach but a massive rise in professionalism will be required for him to be seen as a realistic medal shot in either 400 or 1500. I agree that 6 golds are possible but my realistic "top side of expectations" would be 4 with 1-3 probably more likely. Total medals 10-12 with 6-8 the lower end of expectations.
The artist formerly known as Punter
Guest
Totally agree Roberts's international track record was poor in comparison to his nationals. However, 48.49 in Semis in worlds 2011, 48.57 in both heats relay worlds 2013 (leadoff) & 2012 Olympics semis, all international swims had him in the top 12 swimmers in the world at that time & times way in advance of Abood in the last 5 years. Having this Roberts (2011-2103 vintage) as the Aussie 4th swimmer would be handy now. But yes as mentioned he has bad issues & not sighted in the past year.
The artist formerly known as Punter
Guest
Perkomania, Yes I agree, W4X100 is the big one. Larkin in 200B & Seebohm in W100B are clear favourites. Campell sisters would also be clear favourites against Sjorstrom in the W100F, Larkin would also be slight favourite in the 100B. Other possibilities are Seebohm in the W200B, though Franklin & Hosszu comes into this one much more then the W100B, McEnvoy & Magnussen in the 100F, pending Maggie's return to same level, Horton in 400F & 1500F with more experience, would not discount 4X100F & 4X200F either, there is issues with depth & fitness with 4X100 & consistency with the 4X200. In the women's the W50F has a good chance with Campbell sisters just favourites, but not as clear cut as W100F. The W4X100M has potential but needs a breaststroker, the Chinese are very consistent across the board. I think 6 golsd would not be out of the question, but that maybe slightly on the positive side.
The artist formerly known as Punter
Guest
If you look as it this way, there is really only 'secure' bet as being Ledecky in 400 & 800, Sjorstrom in W100 Butt & the American Women's 4X200F to go with the Australian W4X100. I can't think of one in the Men's side apart from M4X100med if Phelps comes back in with top form. Many clear favourites, but not many secure ones.
Wombat
Roar Rookie
Hard to know at this point whether the "non-tourist" McKeon will develop into a legitimately world class 100 flyer or not. Her 4th in individual race in Kazan cannot really be taken as a guarantee of a finals berth in Rio as, apart from Sjostrom's WR, the minor medals were slow times. You'll probably need sub57 to be sure of finals next year. Not many alternatives around. Coutts returning to her peak is far from a certainty & Groves has yet to prove she can replicate domestic times when it counts in international waters. McKeown started off well in Kazan with a sub 1.07PB in 100BRS then her swims got steadily worse as the meet progressed .... and she seemed to get more tense. Tonks, for all her admirable tenacity, is not going to get any better than she is and that is short of world class. Georgia Bohl & Jessica Hansen are two youngers swimmers currently going 1.07mid-low at the moment; whether they can make sufficient progress before Trials remains to be seen. Very much agree that both Larkin & Seebohm can be seen as favourites in the events you've stated; however they're not quite as "secure" a bet as the W4X100. Franklin faces an uphill battle in the 100 with Seebohm, Wilson, Nielsen & Hosszu in her path but I agree the 200BK is her strongest event. Either C1 (Cate) or C2 (Bronte) could win the 100free and both have to be seen as very strong medal bets but Sjostrom is still very much a factor. The 50 is more open & will probably be much faster in Rio; both should be around the medals but you also have Sjostrom, Kromowidjojo & potentially Halsall (if she returns to 2014 form) 'complicating things". Tend to discount M4X100; its competitiveness and even it's qualification for Rio (due to Kazan debacle) is wholly contingent on Magnussen's return to full fitness & form which is far from certain. Whilst the front end of M4XMED performed admirably, their "medalling" was essentially due to an out of this world anchor leg from McEvoy which saw him overtake 2-3 teams. Unless they can uncover a half-way competitive 100flyer by Rio, this relay will struggle to collect anything. D'Orsogna & Hadler are serial non-performers, Morgan ( a 200 man) swam heats & was faster than Hadler but that's probably not going to be enough.
Wombat
Roar Rookie
Roberts reportedly has back issues. He swam at 2014 Trials & didn't make the team; not sighted in 2015. Not sure he's any answer given his international track record. His record in individual events & 4x100 was NOT good. Out in semis 2011 Worlds & cut from finals line-up 4x100; poor relay swim in London & out in semis individual, mediocre relay 2013 Worlds. Probably fair to say his sub48 at 2014 was an "outlier"/anomaly largely due to surfing Magnussen's wake.
Perkomania
Guest
For mine, as Wombat has said, the women's freestyle relay is a clear favourite. The women's medley relay is in the mix if Emma M can swim fast in the butterfly and they somehow make Mckeown go faster (or unearth another Breaststroker) I still think Larkin is the favourite in the 200 back and Seebohm the same in the 100 back (franklin will come back stronger in the 200 back). I also pick one of the Campbell sisters to win at least the 100 free. A smokey is definitely the men's freestyle relay, particularly if magnussen, McEvoy and chalmers all perform near their best. There's evey chance Australia could win at least 4 to 5 gold. But it will certainly depend on fitness and health and that is hard to predict.
jamesb
Guest
Whatever happened to James Roberts? He was pretty quick a few years ago. Like D’Orsogna, Roberts went missing in London and was a huge disappointment. Is Roberts injured at the moment?
Wombat
Roar Rookie
Chalmers is interesting. Given his AFL background, it will be interesting which way he may go. Those relay splits are promising but need to be seen as just that; relay splits off flying start which equate to 48mid off blocks. He probably should've been given Magnussen's individual swims but D'Orosgna finished ahead of him at Trials. Hopefully, D'Orsogna will be one who's "papers are marked" after Kazan given his serial run of inadequate performances in international competition. Horton paid the price for being dozy in heats in the 400; just survived heats in the non-Olympic 800 & picked up bronze in the final ...... then was unable to go with the pace in 1500 heats. He HAS had previous international experience (Youth Olympics, last year's "ToyTown Games" & Pan Pacs) but this was his first "major". Hopefully the lessons of Kazan WILL be fully digested by both he and his coach. You can get away with coasting in heats at Nationals; do it in "the big time" and you're out on your rear end. M4X100 will only be competitive IF Magnussen is able to return to full fitness & form which is no certainty. As a result of the heats debacle in Kazan, they failed to direct qualify this relay for Rio & to do so, they will now have to post one of the 4 fastest time of nations who have not already qualified between now & end of QF period. IF Magnussen fails to make a return; their chances of qualification shrink enormously as once you go past McEvoy, Abood & Chalmers there's no one else either quick enough or sufficiently reliable in intl competition.
jamesb
Guest
A couple of young male swimmers to look out for are Mack Horton and Kyke Chalmers. Horton missed out on the 400 and 1500 finals due to swimming slowly in his heats. Yet, his personal best times in both events are pretty reasonable. In the 400m, 3:42.84. And in the 1500m, 14:44.09. If Horton can pace himself correctly in the heats and improve in general, then who knows what he could achieve in both of those events. He does have ability. With Chalmers, he is fairly quick in the 100m. In the heats, in his split, he posted a time at 47.92. And he is only 17. Australia could have a fairly good relay team in the 100 with Magnussen, McEvoy, Abood and Chalmers forming a fast team. It will be hard to defend those seven gold medals from the world's into the Olympics. But if there's an unexpected gold or two from somewhere, then you never know, Australia may have a brilliant swimming meet at Rio.
Wombat
Roar Rookie
Small fact check; the worst AUS swim performance in recent times was not 1972 (Munich , which was successful) but 1976 (Montreal) where the only medal was Steve Holland's bronze in M1500. Whilst there were many dysfunctional issues in the London team; result's wise it was far a less a disaster than a "return to normal programming" after Sydney/post Sydney years of plenty. The average medal hauls for LA, Barcelona & Atlanta were 10-12 medals with only one gold at both LA & Barcelona & two in Atlanta; and in each case there was a wait until the final day of swimming competition for these golds to eventuate. Al, Brazil has produced some useful swimmers over the past decade including some Olympic medallists & champions; regrettably some of these may be on the decline by Rio. In Kazan, they picked up 2 medals in Olympic events. GBR went to school somewhat on the AUS model over the past decade & has been producing some quality swimmers, particularly on the male side & picked up 6 medals (incl 3 gold) in Olympic events in Kazan. Not the depth or "spread" of talent of USA or AUS but their best WILL be "around the money" Are the seven golds from Kazan likely to be replicated in Rio ?? Doubtful. There is probably only one (W4XMED) where they are a clear level above the competition & only poor form next year/illness-injuries decimating squad or "mucking things up" is likely to deprive them. Seebohm, Campbell MkII & Larkin COULD all win individual golds & may well go in as favourites in their events (if in good form/health next year) but can in no way be seen as sure things. You could probably put them down as likely medallists; "colour to be determined". Most of the other Kazan medals look reasonably strong chances for Rio; the only possible exceptions may be Ashwood (W400); M4X200 & both 4XMED relays (all having major weaknesses/weak legs). What WILL be interesting is whether Jaco Verhaeren will "call time" on some of the "serial tourists" who, as per their international form-lines, failed to swim anywhere near their Trials times in Kazan. These swimmers are on their 4th/5th year on the team with Olympics & multiple World Championships on their passports but "blank CVs". Maybe the AUS selection process of Trials only is NOT best serving its purpose ? As per usual, European countries like FRA, NED, ITA, SWE & DEN produce a champion or two & sometimes some depth in specific events. JAP looks on the improve with regards to both men's & women's teams.
BigAl
Guest
Is there anyone else putting resources into swimming ? - the mighty US seems to have fallen into a hole. And where are the Brazilians ? - it's usually par for the course that the upcoming Olympic host ( especially a country like Brazil) starts churning out champs...
Rory O'Sullivan
Roar Pro
apologies for spelling error, Seehbom should read Seebohm*