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Coming into their Friday night fixture with Port Adelaide, the Hawthorn Hawks were in a good position – comfortable premiership favourites, they had three matches left against low-ranked sides, giving them a solid chance to earn a home final.
By the end of the night so much had changed for the Hawks, and we might remember it as the match that cost them their shot at the premiership.
First of all, they lost, essentially ruling them out of any hope at a top-two finish. They will almost certainly have to win at least one final at Domain Stadium in Perth to qualify for this year’s grand final.
That in itself is a difficult task, though not impossible. They fought a close battle with the Eagles there a few weeks ago, and got walloped by Fremantle last time the two sides met there, in 2014.
What could really hurt their chances at the flag though is a potential suspension to captain Luke Hodge, who introduced Chad Wingard’s head to the behind post not long after the half-time break.
Wingard went to gather loose ball on the behind line early in the third term but was in trouble when a chase-down from Hodge turned into a vicious hip-and-shoulder that left Wingard flattened on the field.
Miraculously, he came up fine and was able to play out the game, eventually kicking four goals in the win, but the collision could very easily have given him a serious injury.
Hodge looks likely to face some sort of penalty from the match review panel. If he cops a ban of two weeks or less he will miss only the Hawks’ last two games of the year – likely wins against Brisbane and Carlton – but if he is banned for longer, it’ll be a serious concern.
And he very well might be, given the nature of the incident. On slow motion his actions appear to be entirely intentional as he clearly braces and changes direction to bump Wingard even though the ball is already out of play.
Wingard’s head was caught between Hodge’s hip and the behind post, and the potential for serious injury will not escape the MRP.
Any potential ban is compounded by the fact that Hodge has a bad record, having been banned for three matches earlier in the year, which means this incident will have an additional week added to it.
A ban of three weeks or more will see him ruled out for some of the Hawks’ finals campaign, and the absence of the skipper would make winning away in Perth all the more difficult.
After all, they lost two of their three matches that he missed through suspension earlier in the year.
The other big news set to come out later today when the MRP hands down its findings is the fate of Nat Fyfe’s Brownlow Medal hopes, after he was reported for the above incident in Fremantle’s 11-point loss to North Melbourne.
Going for the ball during the third quarter, Fyfe slid into North Melbourne’s Ben Jacobs and looked to have made some high contact.
That kind of incident would likely only bring Fyfe a fine and therefore not affect his Brownlow eligibility, but under the new MRP system three fines in a year means an automatic one-week suspension, and Fyfe has already been fined twice.
He also has a bad record having missed a few weeks in 2014, so that one-week suspension would turn into a two-week suspension and rule him out of the remaining rounds of the season.
Will he get smacked? I don’t reckon so, if you look at the footage it seems bad at first glance, but that’s because it happens so fast. On a slower replay it’s really only Fyfe’s arm that makes contact with Jacobs’ head and it’s not that much contact.
My tip is that he’ll get off and remain eligible for the Brownlow, though I don’t think he’s got the medal in the bag.
It’s worth mentioning that Jacobs ran a great tag on Fyfe, keeping him to a very quiet game. Fyfe kicked a goal early but was well held after that, and while he finished with 21 disposals, only five of those were kicks, showing the pressure he was under from Jacobs.
A few spare thoughts…
Aaron Sandilands versus Todd Goldstein turned out to be quite the ruck duel. Sandilands looked to have it won early with dominance in the hitouts and two first-quarter goals, but Goldstein lifted his work around the ground and got the last laugh with two final-term goals in North’s win.
They both deserve to make the All Australian team this year, though there hasn’t been a ruckman named on the bench since Mark Jamar in 2010, and the fact that it was Mark Jamar is probably why we don’t do it any more.
Patrick Cripps versus Jesse Hogan was the other highly-anticipated clash of the week and Cripps and the Blues won it in a canter. Does that cinch the Rising Star award for him? Carlton fans will tell you it does. I disagree, I still prefer Hogan.
American debutant Jason Holmes looks like he could really make it in the AFL – the big man from Chicago knows how to leap and was the best ruck on ground in St Kilda’s draw with Geelong. He didn’t have much impact around the ground, but didn’t look lost either.
Josh J Kennedy has the Coleman medal sewn up after a bag of seven goals against the Bulldogs on Sunday afternoon – he’s got 71 goals for the season, which is 17 ahead of the next best in Jeremy Cameron. Could he kick another 29 goals in the two rounds left of the season plus finals? Probably not.
The top eight is still really even and a lot of finals combinations are possible. Adelaide host West Coast next week in a game that will have an impact on every team. If West Coast win they’re a chance at top spot, if Adelaide win they’re a chance for a home final.
North Melbourne’s last two games against the Western Bulldogs and Richmond will also be decisive. Win them both and they could finish fifth, or even fourth, lose them both and they will likely be eighth. They’ve got seven wins on the trot at the moment yet may not enter either game as favourites.
Geelong can still make the finals after their draw with the Saints, but only if they beat Collingwood next week, and see Adelaide lose to West Coast – if that happens it will come down to the Cats and Crows in Round 23.