Steve Hansen’s All Blacks face arguably the most important test in their history as they set off for England to defend the Webb-Ellis trophy.
They are aiming to become the first team to win the title three times and dispel every notion that they cannot succeed outside of New Zealand.
New Zealand have always shown that they love and live for the thrill of an insurmountable task, standing the test of time and overcoming the challenge. Throughout their history they have faced the odds and conquered them, breaking record after record for fun and generally bettering themselves as they go along.
Indeed it would not be a folly to suggest that they are the best team ever in world rugby. Their record speaks for itself and their desire to keep the foot on the throat is a trait that escapes every other nation in the world.
And yet, there are valid question marks as to whether or not they can succeed in a World Cup away from their sacred home ground. Fortunately for them, they have the perfect opportunity to prove their critics wrong and maintain the legacy that they’ve built on for the last four years.
Despite being the most consistent team in the world, the All Blacks will know that this year’s World Cup is anything but a given. Yes, they are the deserving favourites for the trophy and yes, they might lead the world rankings by some considerable margin, but this is not just any series of Tests that they have laid before them. This is a World Cup and there is a very realistic chance that they might not win it.
I don’t expect for a moment that Hansen will be in a state even remotely resembling a relaxed and assured mind frame, that’s just not the type of coach that he is. He is plotting meticulously, reviewing every shred of doubt and evaluating every possible solution in accordance to every single possible scenario. The boys are training hard in Wellington, come sun, snow, rain or torpedoes. It is clear to see what this World Cup means to them.
So, where exactly do they currently stand?
In my view, they’re in a good space (as they always are), but they’re not yet where they should be. No doubt many of you are scratching your heads at that statement, but it is the truth. They have regressed slightly in the past two years.
The 2013 version of the All Blacks was the very peak of their powers. They did not lose a single game that year and apart from that they were able to beat a Springbok side at Ellis Park by 11 points before exacting sweet revenge on England and taking down an impressive Ireland at their home ground.
In 2014, however, they let their form slip considerably by their own standards, going down to a Springbok side that was considerably weaker than their 2013 form, and drawing with a Wallaby side that endured one of their poorest seasons ever that year.
They did manage to lift their form again this year, the loss against the Wallabies being the only blemish, and while they are currently a stronger side than their 2014 version, they’re still not near their peak of 2013.
Of course we do have to put this sentiment in context. An All Black side that is off its best is generally still better than everyone else, but it might worry Hansen that they can’t get back to being that relentless beast of 2013. Is it possible that they hit their limit that year? Was the pacing of their game a little off? Perhaps, perhaps not. Either way we’ll know for sure in a few weeks.
What Hansen also knows is that there is no place for complacency now and neither is there any room for comfort. The margins for error in a World Cup are steep, one foot wrong could throw you off a cliff.
The games against the Springboks and Wallabies this year are proof enough that the All Blacks have quite a lot of work left to do, as do all teams, before they can start thinking about winning the coveted trophy.
In both those games the men in black did have awful patches, particularly in that first half at Ellis Park. It was almost gobsmacking to see the All Blacks that far off form, but to their credit they pulled it together in the second half and won the game. It may be a phrase we’re all annoyed of hearing, but it is true that champion sides tend to win games despite not playing to the best of their abilities.
So for any of you out there searching for a chink in the black clad armour, there it is. The All Blacks are beatable, as the Wallabies rightfully displayed, they are susceptible to pressure and they do have off games. The trick here is that you must capitalise on every single mistake they make when they have these rough patches, you must keep the foot on their throats.
Of course this also doesn’t mean that they’ll be easy to beat in this year’s tournament. We know all too well that the All Blacks are a team that cleans up rather nicely very fast. They’ve had their scares and they’ve had their bitter tastes of defeat. Now they’re out for blood.
So, for the first time ever on The Roar, I’m going to analyse the team and pick the players that I think will be best for the World Cup.
1. Tony Woodcock (184cm, 120kg)
The Test and provincial centurion has been a cornerstone of a highly impressive All Black scrum for years and deserves every accolade that comes his way.
Woodcock is industrious around the field, specialising primarily in the core duties of the loosehead prop but is also no slouch in the game’s open technicalities. While it is true that he struggled somewhat against the Springbok, Argentine and Wallaby scrums this year, it would be an error to discard Woodcock in a tournament as important as this one. He is an excellent player and will come right.
2. Dane Coles (184cm, 109kg)
Any hooker that can out-sprint a winger is A-okay in my book and should be in yours as well after he scored two fantastic tries against opposing SANZAR nations in consecutive matches. The tries were so beautiful that even Conrad Smith would have left the field frowning as if saying: ‘Did that really just happen?’
Coles is not the conventional bucktooth, physical brute of a hooker and he doesn’t need to be. His core skills in the position leave nothing lacking and then he brings more to the table on top of that.
He won’t dominate physically, especially not in northern hemisphere conditions, but neither will he get monstered or take a step backwards. He will contribute positively one way or another.
3. Owen Franks (185cm, 120kg)
So, how do you leave this man at home in a big game? You just don’t, simple as that. Franks has been one of the premier tighthead props for the last couple of years and alongside Woodcock brings experience and hard work galore.
Solid in his job and knows how to pass the oval. What more could you want?
4. Brodie Retallick (204cm, 120kg)
The 2014 IRB Player of the Year picks up Hansen’s pen and writes his own name onto the team sheet, that’s just how good he is. Alongside Will Skelton and Eben Etzebeth, Retallick is one of the new breed mongrel Super Rugby players to emerge in the last couple of years.
But what makes him a truly special player is the fact that he has a true rugby brain accompanying his rugged work rate. He is probably a type of crossbreed between Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha except he doesn’t have Botha’s ill-tempered play and Matfield’s reluctance. Instead he has Botha’s strength and Matfield’s brain much akin to the Springbok’s Etzebeth.
5. Samuel Whitelock (202cm, 116kg)
Whitelock is the most underrated lock in world rugby and more valuable than Retallick. He seldom gets the shine that Retallick does, I don’t know why, but that’s all good by him. He just does the job. He comes, he breaks teams, he leaves.
Whitelock is equally as blessed as Retallick and Etzebeth in that he combines strength with aggression and athleticism. Like Coles, Whitelock more nullifies the opponent than he bosses them and like Coles he doesn’t need to when his lineout prowess is so invaluable.
6. Victor Vito (192cm, 109kg)
Also rated, but very underrated. Luckily his stellar season for the Canes has stamped his claim to a World Cup spot. It was hard to leave Jarome Kaino out and there was a case for Liam Messam, but Vito just does the jersey justice. Mobile, strong and skilful, he captures and complements the All Black style of play perfectly.
7. The King McCaw (187cm, 108kg)
There’s always room for ‘he whose name we may not and cannot speak’ as he’s called by ‘we who support opposing teams’. Probably the best player and the most successful captain ever to grace a rugby field, McCaw is essential for the black tidal wave coming for the northern hemisphere.
Able to adapt and survive, he is the perfect player to pick when taking into consideration the fact that different referees from different hemispheres interpret the rules of the game differently. Try saying that 10 times three times faster. McCaw probably could.
8. Kieran Read (193cm, 110kg)
While not as magical as he was in 2013, Read stands as the one man who can turn a game around in any given moment. Blessed with athleticism and pure genius, Read strikes me as the type of player that can play equally as successfully in both rugby hemispheres.
He will come face-to-face with several other giants of the game namely and he will know that his performance may well be the difference between winning and losing. A kingpin in the lineout and a leader to boot, Read is the perfect deputy for ‘he whose name we may and cannot speak’.
9. Aaron Smith (171cm, 84kg)
Probably the best halfback currently passing the ball on the rugby field. Smith has been a revelation since joining the All Blacks’ crusade in 2012 and has not looked back since.
Smith has both the attacking and tactical kicking game to succeed in England, able to attack the space should the opportunity present itself and relieve pressure via a pin-point up and under.
10. Daniel Carter (178cm, 96kg)
Truth be told, if Aaron Cruden was available I would probably have chosen him in this position, but that does not mean that Carter doesn’t deserve one last shot at a World Cup trophy. Widely regarded as the best ever fly-half, Carter is the complete player despite the fact that he’s lost some pace.
11. Julian Savea (192cm, 108kg)
The destroyer of men and the devourer of tries, Julian Savea is fast, strong and skilful, complete with a built in radar to detect and exploit space. He is perhaps the first ever giant winger to depend equally on his distribution, kicking and footwork as he does on his physicality.
While not in Nemani Nadolo, Taqele Naiyaravoro and Jonah Lomu’s league in terms of size, what makes Savea so powerful is the way he positions his body when going into contact.
12. Ma’a Nonu (182cm, 108kg)
The best inside centre in the world who has gained a reputation as ‘The Predator’ in South Africa due to his likeness to the alien invaders of a movie of the same name. Once just a bulldozing behemoth, Nonu has evolved his game with smart little kicks and a long, accurate pass. He is currently part of the most experienced centre pairing ever.
13. Conrad Smith (186cm, 95kg)
Not the flashiest player you’ll ever see in the line-up and neither is he the biggest or strongest. What he is, though, is smart and compromising.
Smith is very similar to the old-school type of player, one untouched by the profession of professionalism. He has the innate understanding of space and passing dynamics as well as the near omniscient understanding of defensive patterns.
14. Waisake Naholo (186cm, 96kg)
Rightfully rewarded for his sensational form in this year’s Super Rugby tournament, Naholo is a unique player that combines physicality with a very mean sidestep. He was an integral part of the Highlanders’ success and could provide the All Blacks with the necessary x-factor and unknown quantity they’ll need in the play-offs.
15. Ben Smith (186cm, 93kg)
While not the biggest player around, weighing in at just 93 kilograms, Smith is deceptively one of the strongest players on his feet in the entire world, throwing in a leg drive that even forwards would envy.
Smith was the logical choice for fullback as his form has been undeniable for the past few years. He is also very knowledgeable about the art of the aerial game.
So, what do you think, Roarers? Can the All Blacks make this year their third World Cup?
LMOB7
Guest
Hi Everybody, Waited till i read thru most of this string, even the usual junk mail. As an avowed AB supporter. My only question is not, are they able but are the All Blacks ready. With Hansen and Smith and Ritchie at the helm, my personal opinion is that they are. Go the mighty All Blacks. and a great RWC to all Rugby lovers.
harrys
Guest
Agreed Bryce Lawrence handed the reds the super 15 final in 2011 with his decision not to penalize the reds even though they were throwing themselves off their feet at just about every ruck, coming in from wrong side. Pretty similar scared performance from Barnes on that fatefull day too scared to make a call so in the end they didn't. Beauty of this is that no green refs will ever be allowed to ref in any knockout or finals games again. so we do have something to be gratefull of there.
harrys
Guest
Qtrs would be pushing it
Kohatu
Guest
@ frisky Looking at the age & experience in the ABs including the SpringBoks and Wallabies; IMHO too old or too slow will not be a factor to losing games on the slower pitches & conditions in England. Other factors will come into play for that to happen. In putting forward your argument on Ritchie being too old you need to look at the on-field ability, experience, impact and MANA as captain & player that he brings in each game and without doubt 4 million+ people will disagree with you about him being too old. Hell just look at him over the last World Cup games in 2011 where he played on one leg (the other with broken bone) to win the last World Cup! Too old or slow - your dreaming!! Further, on your argument for Ritchie being too slow; please name me the teams or players that play a high impact (quick game) for 80+ minutes to bother Ritchie and the ABs? No.. Frisky; I didn't think you could!?!
Kohatu
Guest
Really good article Armand. The ABs like the other top contenders for the Cup will need to adapt to the conditions (including refs) and manage their game accordingly. Hopefully injuries will not play a part (unlike poor Wales) but if that happens the ABs like SA and England do have quality reserves waiting in the bleaches. Based on the games played in recent times; I think the ABs will play a wider, controlled game during the pool rounds to blow out the cobwebs and later bring their on-field game management back to a more direct, go-forward, pressure style of rugby for the Qtr Final onwards. This will be the mantra to govern their knock-out percentage style rugby to the final.
Cros
Guest
AB's to meet the Wallabies in the Final. No team can stay No1 forever. Wallabies to finish over the top in the last 10 minutes. Ten years of pain finally expunged. Talk in NZ will be how McCaw and Carter played one WC too many. Or not?
Lee
Guest
Hi Birdy, I write this after the weekend when England did indeed beat Ireland and deserved to do so. Nevertheless I do think Ireland have a solid chance of making the final because they have a favourable draw. England have to make it out of their pool without too many injuries. Ireland are less likely to take a battering in their pool than England is in their games. Not only that, England have to defeat sides that have quite different styles of play. Consequently, England will need a solid defence against several styles of play. Wales do have a running game - though admittedly it wasn't on display much this weekend, while England doesn't seem to have much more than one style of play plus a couple of strengths. They can certainly tackle and sometimes scrimmage (shaky lineout though) but that's not enough. If England can kick intelligently and can contest the breakdown aggressively, then they can defeat a running side. But I haven't seen them dominate anyone at the breakdown - in fact I'd say this is their weakness. They have no world class fetchers like McCaw or Pocock or Warburton et al. And their kicking ranges from wildly successful to tactically inept and almost panicky. Against Fiji they are going to have to shift a lot of prime beef around the pitch very quickly unless they can slow the game down. But that's something refs are increasingly unwilling to allow. They'll take a bit of a battering against Fiji and could very well be outclassed in broken play. And Australia are bringing an improving pack to support a vastly more cunning set of tactics and a faster more open game. I have to pick Oz to win the pool. In short, I think England has little more than one reliable style of play and it won't work three weeks in a row. Ireland however have shown competence (if not brilliance) in every area of the game over a much longer period of time. Their pool is easier and I suspect they can beat either Argentina or France in their QF. But England's QF could be against SA or Samoa. Both will be very hard games. It's hard to see them winning four such tough games in a row. One-on-one, England is probably better than Ireland on most days, but the draw seems to favour Ireland. Cheers Lee PS. The Burgess experiment is a big fat risk too - it's too easy to target him when he's defending. Catch him out of position (which will surely happen) and suddenly there's gaping great hole for a team to exploit. Think of Jonah Lomu in 1994 against the French. They made him look silly. And if Burgess doesn't play the big games, then he's a bench rooster and that's a cost England will have to bear as well.
dropkick
Guest
Exactly too much experience and too many good players
Zero Gain
Guest
Yes, and that is why it will be so sweet to beat them ;)
Coconut
Guest
Yep, like most teams, including the ABs, its going to be the top two inches which determines which team will prevail. England will gain confidence as they progress, as you say - and I think this is what makes them dangerous. If they turn up to a game in the wrong headspace, then they will struggle - it is a cliché but they are very capable of beating themselves. Of course this is true for any of the top teams, but I think it is especially true for England, because I think its perhaps their self-belief at the moment which is causing some of the mixed performances on the field.
Birdy
Guest
England have definite weaknesses, Coconut, mostly revolving around their relative youth and inexperience. I also think you make a great point about the 'pressure'. I don't think it will only be in the latter stages (should they survive that long). Martin Johnson always said that the most nervous he felt through the entire 2003 RWC was before the pool match with the Boks. I think the most nervous England will feel in the entire RWC will be before the match against Wales. By Australia they'll either have two calming wins (providing Fiji goes to plan - a big 'if) or it will be such a must-win game that nerves don't come into it. I'm just puzzled why on the basis of two up and down warm-up games against France when England were in the middle of a heavy conditioning programme some are writing off their chances completely. If they win the pool (and they have as good a chance as Wales or Australia) they face Samoa/Scotland in the QF, and then probably France or Ireland in the SF. Both those games would be eminently winnable and then they could find themselves in the final. It could also all go pear-shaped at any stage, but it's a brave man that would stick their house on England not making the final. There seems to be even more negativity about England's chances from England fans than there is even on the Roar.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Agree with that very accurate diagnosis Disney but very hard to take seriously while staring at your avatar!
taylorman
Roar Guru
Knock ons don't need downward pressure though. They're about forward motion, not downward.
Jerry
Guest
Depends where the pressure is placed.
ebop
Guest
It would be interesting to see the same standards and scrutiny applied to other teams when assessing 'their' chances as are applied to the ABs. I understand why people pick holes in the ABs and their chances but in the process are assuming other teams are plane sailing.
wardad
Guest
If theres enough pressure for a knock-on surely theres enough for a try ?
Common Sense
Roar Rookie
Dean, This is what happens when you join in the discussion late. I'm pointing out the All Blacks in the 2015 rwc squad who won the 2011 rwc.
Muzzo
Guest
@ Jibba Jabba Yeh,Mate "the car towing" story, is very true, as I was in attendance. It was a good friend of mines car that he "clutch started". down near the Botanical Gardens, area in Dunedin, when we were about to leave a party. He did after all, start playing for Otago, either at last man down or on the side of the scrum, not at prop. Cheers.
Muzzo
Guest
@ Chook No I'm not certain whether GR submitted the article that I was told about, but I was told that it was in the SMH, about a couple of years ago, I think it was, & what was written, wasn't quite what happened, so I have been informed. That is virtually all I know. I have spoken with Keith since that particular incident, briefly, in fact very briefly. At the airport,in a virtually, Hello, shake hands, goodbye,sort of thing. That being the last time I ever saw him. Piney has always, referred to Keith as being, " A team man, that was always there for the team", & I can imagine that.
Muzzo
Guest
@ Chook Yes Buddy, I think I know & understand your way of thinking, regarding the game, by now, as I. I'm sure we will be having a few discussions on certain aspects, over the tournament, in regards to all of the top nations, & possibly a few of the remaining nations that will be performing. Can't wait, mate. Cheers