It’s win or go home for the Richmond Tigers and North Melbourne Kangaroos at the MCG on Sunday afternoon – two teams that have suffered their fair share of finals heartbreak in recent seasons.
MORE AFL FINALS:
>> EAGLES VS HAWKS PREVIEW
>> DOCKERS VS SWANS PREVIEW
>> DOGS VS CROWS PREVIEW
Every AFL fan knows how significant this match is for the Tigers. After a long stint in the bottom half of the table, the men from Punt Road returned to the finals in 2013 only to crumble against Carlton in Week 1.
The story was again that of devastation in 2014, as Port Adelaide effectively won their Week 1 clash in the opening minutes of their Adelaide Oval clash. Richmond fans will be crossing their fingers that finals exits aren’t coming in threes on Sunday.
The Kangaroos will enter the game still carrying fresh memories of a preliminary final loss to Sydney in 2014, after a gallant run from outside the top four. Although they missed finals in 2013, their story in 2012, a 96-point loss to the Eagles in Week 1, paints an equally crushing picture to the Tigers’ recent finals experience.
Unfortunately, for one of these two teams, memories of finals are only going to get tougher to swallow by the end of this game.
The Tigers enter the match as the favourites, and also the form side. Since dropping four of their first six games in 2015 (including a loss to the Kangaroos), the Tigers have only lost three times, all against quality opposition in the Eagles, Dockers and Crows in Adelaide. Of course, this includes that loss to the Dockers, one that really shouldn’t have got away from them.
The Kangaroos’ season has been more inconsistent, but their stretch of seven wins from Round 15 to Round 21, culminating in a solid win against the Dockers, provides solid ground to argue they are equally primed for an attack on September.
Of course, these sides met in the final round of the regular season, but since there was no ladder-jostling to be done, Brad Scott decided to bench the best part of half his starting 22, so they could be fresh and raring to go for this match. In terms of using last week as a yardstick for Sunday then, we can pretty much toss it on the scrap-heap.
If we look back beyond last round’s match, it isn’t pretty for Richmond supporters. The Roos defeated the Tigers five consecutive times from 2011 to 2015 – Richmond fans needing to go back to Round 5, 2011, for the last time they beat a full-strength North side.
Date Venue Home vs Away Result Round 23, 2015 Etihad Stadium Richmond defeats North Melbourne 108-67 Round 6, 2015 Blundstone Arena North Melbourne defeatsRichmond 109-74 Round 12, 2014 Etihad Stadium North Melbourne defeatsRichmond 116-88 Round 15, 2013 Etihad Stadium North Melbourne defeatsRichmond 128-66 Round 17, 2012 MCG Richmond defeated by North Melbourne 99-103
The key matchup to focus on looking back to North Melbourne’s Round 6 win is in the ruck. Todd Goldstein has been the form ruckman in the competition in 2015 and Ivan Maric’s ability to go head-to-head with him will be key. North Melbourne have averaged more than 10 extra hitouts over the Tigers in 2015 and in Round 6 Goldstein notched up 36 to Maric’s 25. The story was much the same in the Roos’ Round 12 win in 2014: Goldstein notched up 43 hitouts to Maric’s 24.
Despite this dominance in first touch, the Roos were only +4 on clearances in that 2014 match, and the Tigers actually managed to dominate the clearance numbers 37 to 25 in their earlier 2015 meeting – causing a -13.6 for the Roos on their eventual season average. Anthony Miles and Trent Cotchin led the way for the Tigers, smashing the Roos mids to combine for 17 clearances.
The Tigers’ ability to negate North Melbourne’s dominance in the ruck with key players such as Cotchin, Miles and Dustin Martin getting their hands on the footy around the contest will go a long way to determining the outcome of this match.
So who’s going to win? For many the heart will be saying Richmond – nobody wants to watch a team suffer a third elimination final loss in a row after all. That being said, it is tough to look past the dominance the Roos have displayed against the Tigers in recent seasons.
The Tigers do have form on their side (just), but they also have a the glaring history of crumbling at key moments in finals.
The Roos’ rested bodies should return raring to go for this match, and their recent finals wins should give them the confidence to get the job done at the death.
Either way it falls, with the ‘G packed to the rafters, this elimination final looks set to deliver an absolute classic.
North Melbourne by 5.
Who’s in your ultimate team? Pick the best team and compete with other fans for daily prizes on Draftstars. For the best odds on the game try out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Think. Is this a bet you really want to place? Set a deposit limit.
Round 5 of the AFL provided plenty of action, from big scorelines to upset wins and pressure starting to build on some clubs and coaches already.
Collingwood premiership defender Nathan Murphy has been forced into a premature and immediate AFL retirement through concussion to prioritise a "full and healthy life"…
North Melbourne will wear black armbands in Sunday afternoon's clash with Geelong in honour of former player and club director Kerry Good's daughter Ashlee,…
Geelong has been crafty and creative in its list management and has quietly assembled a very exciting young group of midfielders and half-forwards.
Brisbane co-captain Lachie Neale will be looking to lead his team to a victory against Melbourne in what will be his 250th AFL game.
It’s high stakes with five teams having lost their first three games of season 2024, and in desperate need of a win.
