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What if State of Origin wasn't a thing?

Griffo 09 new author
Roar Rookie
11th September, 2015
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The Storm suffered big time post-Origin. (AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
Griffo 09 new author
Roar Rookie
11th September, 2015
36
1139 Reads

Imagine an NRL season that went from start to finish without silly interruptions from pointless mid-season representative fixtures. Never going to happen, right?

That’s okay, I actually love Origin, despite its impact on the week-to-week competition.

Origin affects teams differently – some positively, some negatively – and this can alter their position on the ladder. What if there was a way we could account for this?

This season I attempted to do that by keeping tallies on how many wins teams got in different periods of the season. I divided the season into three sections. The pre-Origin period of 10 games (Rounds 1-10), the Origin period of six games (rounds 11-18), and the post-Origin period of eight games (rounds 19-26).

(To make comparisons easier I have discounted the two byes each team receives.)

After the first 10 rounds, Melbourne, Brisbane, North Queensland and St George Illawarra were equal top, with seven wins (14 points) each – two wins clear of the rest.

Brisbane and North Queensland carried on their merry winning way with six and five wins respectively, while Melbourne and the Dragons incurred Origin form-slumps, winning one game each out of six for the Origin period.

The Sydney Roosters were another team that had very good run through Origin and were able to get their season on track. It’s no coincidence that the three top teams were the three best-performed in the post-Origin period. It is also interesting to note they contributed four or more players to Origin. Other teams to perform poorly in this time were Wests and Newcastle, although their form in the lead-up to the series had already been poor.

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Post-Origin had one stand-out as the Roosters managed eight from eight, but other good performers were Melbourne, Cronulla and Canterbury who all managed six wins.

So if Origin has a big impact on the integrity of the season what happens when we take it away? Well the Roosters stay at the top with 13 wins from a possible 18 but the big mover up the list is Melbourne, who come in level with Sydney also on 13 wins. North Queensland remains third with 12 wins, Brisbane drop down to equal fourth, with the other big movers being the Dragons on 11 wins.

Canterbury and Cronulla are equal sixth with 10 wins, and South Sydney drop another spot to eighth with nine wins.

So with all this in mind, what to make of the various teams’ chances? You can’t discount the Broncos’ effort in Origin, after all they lost more players than anyone. Souths aren’t much of a threat – they’ve limped into the finals despite being less affected by Origin than others. The Dragons could cause an upset this week, but they’re not up there with the top teams.

Melbourne must be considered genuine contenders for the premiership. It’s clear that Origin forced them a few positions down the ladder.

Season 2015 adjusted

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