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There’s absolutely no shortage of reasons to tune into the opening weekend of the AFL finals.
We want to watch the Western Bulldogs and Adelaide for what it would mean to the winner. We want to watch Richmond and North Melbourne for what it might say about the loser.
In both cases, the matches could plausibly go either way, officially making them must-watch finals.
But Fremantle’s clash with the Sydney Swans this afternoon stands apart from the other finals.
It’s the only game where a team – the Dockers – are expected to win.
They entered the round with the shortest betting odds and the only tipsters in the Herald Sun and The Age to favour the Swans yesterday were the Kiss of Death and Village Idiot. Hardly a vote of confidence for the visitors.
Throw together Fremantle’s home ground advantage, the loss of star Swans Lance Franklin and Kieren Jack, the benefit of being able to rest so many players last week and the best track record of the home and away season, and it’s not hard to see why expectations have fallen the way they have.
Which makes this something of a role-reversal of last year’s qualifying final between these very teams.
In that game at ANZ Stadium, minor premiers Sydney hosted a Fremantle side that wasn’t exactly charging into September full of momentum. My Roar colleague Matt Webber wrote in the lead-up to the match an article titled “Why has everyone forgotten about the Dockers?”
You could pose the same question about the Swans today.
So here’s the thing for Freo. What we didn’t see that day last year was a minor premier exploiting its slight edge over a quality but weakened opponent.
We saw a ho-hum affair whereby the Swans built a small buffer and successfully fought off attempts to bridge it.
Not much was made of that at the time, but it’s relevant in hindsight. We now know the emperor was found without clothes on grand final day and perhaps there was a hint what was to come in the first final.
And so to Fremantle 2015.
They burst out of the blocks to cement their spot as the home and away season’s premier team. But there are enough questions about their second half of the year to warrant discussion about whether that can translate into finals.
Freo have only once beaten a top eight side since Round 9 (North Melbourne, West Coast, Hawthorn and Richmond have all beaten them in that time; the win was a four-point defeat of the Tigers).
While the season started superbly, with the Dockers sitting on a percentage of 151.6 at the end of May, from June to August the percentage was a far less ominous 108.4 (points for slipped by 14 per game and points against rose by 12 per game).
The man on everyone’s lips during the first half of the year, Nat Fyfe, didn’t poll a single AFL Coaches Association vote post-Round 13 after compiling 100 up to that point. A knee injury may still be troubling him.
That vibe around the club from earlier in the year has been lost. But today, they have an opportunity to exploit a slight edge over a weakened opponent.
Whether they can do that or not could say a lot about their potential to be premiers.
For his part, Ross Lyon – who has more at stake than any other coach this September – is definitely feeling confident. He’s backing the credentials earned early in the season.
And why not? The last nine minor premiers have all made the grand final, albeit with a poor record in the game itself.
But one suspects even Ross would trade that title for an emphatic win today.