David Kirk, Rhodes Scholar, All Blacks World-Cup winning captain and businessman, is rarely caught short on answering a question.
But he was momentarily flummoxed when he was asked at a rugby lunch by The Australian’s veteran rugby writer Wayne Smith to answer this question: “In a word, who going to win and lift the Webb Ellis Cup in England?”
After a hesitation, Kirk made a smart recovery: “Oh no, how do I say New Zealand in one word … or the All Blacks!”
At the same lunch, John Eales gave a more guarded answer to Wayne Smith’s question. “It’s more relevant talking about who could win it than who will win it,” he responded.
Then he sort of covered most of the bases: “We all know New Zealand could win it. We all know England being the home side could win. We know that Australia has beaten everyone in the world in the last few years. South Africa has too. And then there is France, everyone knows their danger.”
Then the cautious Eales made an acute observation:”But one of the interesting scenarios is there are a couple of teams who may not be able to beat everyone in the comp, but if someone else beats someone for them, then they could get up and win.”
The point here, and I agree with it totally, is that the best team does not necessarily with the Rugby World Cup tournament. The best team in the tournament wins.
In several Rugby World Cup tournaments, the best team in world has actually won the Webb Ellis trophy. The Wallabies in 1991 and 1999, England in 2003 and the All Blacks in 2011 were the best teams in the world when they won their Rugby World Cup tournaments.
But in 1987, the All Blacks, and in 1995 and 2007, the Springboks, won the Rugby World Cup tournament when the Wallabies (1986 and 1994) and the All Blacks (2007) going into the tournament were the best teams in world rugby.
The point is this, Rugby World Cup tournaments, like all tournaments, take on a reality of their own until their climax in the final.
The All Blacks won Rugby World Cup 1987 without having to play the favourites, Alan Jones’ Wallabies.
The Springboks won Rugby World Cup 2007 without having to play the All Blacks or the Wallabies, two sides that had their measure when playing Tests out of South Africa at that time.
There are going to be upsets in Rugby World Cup 2015, as there have been in all the other World Cup tournaments. But which team is going to be the victim of the inevitable boilover? Or, more importantly, which side can create a boilover?
It was interesting that John Eales did not mention Ireland, a side that two years came with a couple of seconds and a missed Johnny Sexton sitter of a penalty miss of defeating the All Blacks at Dublin and the best side in Europe for a couple of years.
This reminds me of a hapless prediction I made before Rugby World Cup 2007 in my book, How To Win The World Cup, where I suggested that five teams could win, the usual suspects of the Wallabies, All Blacks, France, Wales and England, and did NOT include the eventual winner, the South African Springboks. Oh dear!
Is leaving out Ireland for Rugby World Cup 2015 a case of John Eales emulating a Rugby World Cup 2007 Spiro moment?
As it happens, Bill Farrell and Elsa Jordan, forensic data analysts at EY, have worked out that Ireland “may have its best opportunity to beat the All Blacks for the first time at the 2015 Rugby World Cup.”
They say it is “feasible” that Ireland may face the All Blacks in a quarter-final, or the final.
If Ireland do face the All Blacks, they would face a side that has ‘historically’ maintained a performance cycle in 10 consecutive Tests, essentially of peaks, where they never had a long losing streak or big losses. In the last 15 years, the All Blacks have had an average points difference of 16 over their opponents.
Ireland, on the other hand, have an average 10-match point difference during the last 15 years of 1.7. But they have won the last two Six Nations tournaments.
Ireland and the All Blacks have played each other since 1905. Ireland have never won in the 28 Tests.
The EY analysts quote The Rule of 3, where the probability of a very rare events is three, divided by the number of observations: “In this instance, the probability of Ireland defeating the All Blacks is 3/28 = 11 per cent.”
But, “if we consider a five-point loss or less as a near miss, the probability of a win against New Zealand is 21 per cent. Taking only the near misses from the past five years into account raises Ireland’s chances to 33 per cent.”
Another consideration is that the All Blacks have a low probability of losing an away match (27 per cent). The Irish have a tendency to lose away matches (65 per cent).
EY’s conclusion: “Combining the outcomes of different approaches we predict a 25 per cent – to 35 per cent chance of an Ireland win over the All Blacks within the next 12 months.”
The key for Ireland is to get to the finals by defeating France in Pool D (France, Ireland, Italy, Canada, Romania) in their pool round clash. If they do this, it means that they avoid meeting the All Blacks in the quarter-final at Cardiff.
A senior Irish rugby writer, Gerry Thornley, is predicting an All Blacks-Wales final, with a third Webb Ellis trophy for New Zealand. Oh ye of little faith!
Sir Graham Henry, a rugby coaching great who knows a lot about these things, is predicting the Wallabies to be “likely” finalists.
Henry argues that the Wallabies will be “battle hardened” after emerging from Pool A, the hardest pool in the tournament, or any other tournament, in my view.
Henry is impressed with Michael Cheika’s success in lifting the Wallabies from six in the world to two this year. “They will be good and keep on getting better. I think they could well be finalists.”
But a lot depends on how the Wallabies progress through their “pool of death.”
Here we can call in the help of the Wallaby great George Smith with his fearless predictions: “I think Fiji are going through with Australia.” More than that, Smith believes the Wallabies can win their third Webb Ellis trophy, if the All Blacks get tripped up somewhere on their journey: “I believe Australia will win the World Cup but I hope they aren’t facing New Zealand in the final.”
A round-robin discussion on Stuff between the New Zealand rugby writers, Liam Napier, Richard Knowler and Toby Robson, found them agreeing with each other that the All Blacks would play England in the final – with the All Blacks likely winners.
Paul Cully, whose rugby writing has graced The Roar, has predicted in Rugby Heaven that the Wallabies, France, England and the All Blacks will be the final four.
The Wallabies, though, have to win their pool which would give them, presumably, a quarter-final against the Pumas and a semi-final against France, both winnable games.
The crucial match for the Wallabies, therefore, is against England on October 4. If the Wallabies lose they go into the Springboks and All Blacks half of the finals draw, as they did in Rugby World Cup 2011 (provided, of course, they defeat Fiji and Wales).
But if the Wallabies come out as winners of Pool A, they get into the opposite side of the finals draw from the two southern hemisphere powers, which is a much easier road to the final. This is the route France took, despite two defeats in the pool rounds, to reach the final of Rugby World Cup 2011.
Readers of The Roar will know that I am one of the few non-gambling Greeks in Bondi Junction. There is a good reason for this, as those who have studied my Super Rugby tipping form and previous Rugby World Cup predictions will understand.
The 2015 Rugby World Cup tournament will see over $100 million bet on the various games in the UK alone. The bookmakers need to get their odds right to make money from this orgy of gambling. They have made the All Blacks favourites to win the Webb Ellis trophy for the third time with the extremely tight odds of 6/5.
I know, I know. No team has won back-to-back Rugby World Cup tournaments. The All Blacks have never won the Webb Ellis trophy outside of New Zealand.
But I am going with the people who put their money where their mouth is and make the fearless prediction: The All Blacks will win Rugby World Cup 2015.
Has the Spiro kiss of death been delivered?
Muzzo
Guest
Honestly, I don't appreciate any of the garbage that Reason continually spouts. One wonders why he is still living in New Zealand.
Charging Rhino
Roar Guru
Muz is that why that team beat ABs in Dunedin in 2008. Then wiped them 3-0 in 2009? And beat the Lions and Australia twice and ran up the biggest score against England at Twickenham in history in 2008, not to mention the 36-0 drubbing in the pool game?! Remember they played a C team on tour in the 2007 Tri- Nations.... Plus they went to number 1 ranking and then held it for a long time in 2009 after briefly losing it in 2008? I know ranking points count for double in a WC but if they were that bad they wouldn't have got near number 1 now would they?? They didn't choose who they played during the tournament but I reckon they would've beaten everyone in that WC in 07, they were playing so well. Plus the Sharks & Bulls contested and all South African Super Rugby final.... Undeserving...??? A few stats are annoying when they disprove your opinion right!? Lol!!
Muzzo
Guest
@ sheek, Well mate. in all honesty. in regards to losing both Carter & McCaw, I have heard from good sources, across the pond, that Richie could possibly be there next year against the Lion's, I think it is. He hasn't, as yet, made any statement to confirm or deny as to when he will be retiring, as the long term view is he is after the century of wins as captain, a record that will be very hard to beat, ever, for a player playing in his position.
Ton
Guest
Great article - just disagreed with one tiny point - I do not think New Zealand was the best team in 2007 - I thought South Africa was - and it became more apparent after 25 mins into the World Cup once Umaga was ruled out If Tana Umaga was not injured in the very first match vs Italy in 2007 - may be - things could have been different - NZ had to shift Muliaina from fullback to Centre - and as per 2003 (Cullen) you just lost too much going forward when you shift your attacking fullback - This time in 2015 however I do believe NZ has the best team+ squad + coach - I do believe even with a few injuries they still have the best 41 - It will be extremely tough but I am quite optimistic NZ would win. Australia should win pool A - England to be out when they play SA Bold predictions ! Nonetheless I am certain this 2015 World Cup would be a fantastic tournament
Grahame
Guest
Perhaps say it again so we know what you are talking about.
Rugby Fan
Roar Guru
Whatever strategy you choose on the pitch, you have to be able to execute. There's no guarantee the New Zealand could produce a side to do that. This idea that the All Blacks had never heard of the drop goal until recently is ridiculous. Even in that infamous 2007 quarter final, Dan Carter was trying to edge his side further ahead through drop goals as early as the 52nd minute. The All Blacks were leading 13-6, and Carter went for the posts from the 10 metre mark, pushing it well wide. When New Zealand said afterwards that they didn't practice drop goals, it's obvious they didn't mean they never intended to use them. The only conclusion to draw is that they didn't practice, because they were confident they could perform that skill whenever it was required. After all, Zinzan Brooke never practiced but claimed he was able to slot his 1995 World Cup drop goal with ease, because of all the rugby golf he played in his garden as a kid. However, it's not an easy skill to perform when the weight of a nations's expectations are on you, and the clock is ticking down to send you home. As it turned out, New Zealand did need the practice.
James in NZ
Guest
Greytown, opps my mistake.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Ha, was supposed to be rush defence.
Frontrow
Guest
Henry has been badly misquoted -- or at least deliberately taken out of context - and to suit the ends of the Australian media and the Wallabies. He was asked about the Wallabies in their tough group and said is was likely - which is not a not a definite - but likely they would make the finals. Finals football is not the just the final itself but the finals as in the playoffs and this we should all no by the way final footy in Australia is defined and elsewhere at finals time - making the finals playoffs and winning is two very different things He never predicted an All Black v Wallabies final at all - (Spiro and other take note) he merely stated he thought they would make the finals - not final -the playoffs from their group and the SMH and the Courier Mail who have clearly been assigned the job of promoting the Wallabies have deliberately embellished what he actually said Henry has not once said the Wallabies will make the actual final - why would he - If they finish 2nd in their group they will probably face the All Blacks if they win their quarter final which means he would be saying they will beat the All Blacks - yea right - Henry would say that - sure after after 40 point thumping last time round It is time he was not taken out of context by an Australian Media desperate to promote the Wallabies chances and by other reading this nonsense and thinking that is what he actually said because he didn't - he is right they probably will make the finals but where they finish is a big decider in their chances of reaching the final
rick page
Guest
I think the winner of Pool A plays the runner up of Pool B Spiro, so I think Aus will play Samoa in the quarters, then Ireland in the semi. Im picking Ireland and AB's for the final. Ireland have form and a very good fly half /goal kicker in Sexton, whereas its not clear who will be the starting flyhalf for the Wallabies and who is the reliable goal kicker. I cant see them beating Ireland at home. After those Welsh injuries to key players I don't think Pool A is such a pool of death now. Fiji is a banana skin for all the big names but England have only 1 player with over 50 caps and havn't settled on combinations, already coach is suggesting they'll be at their best in 2019! Wales can't overcome their injuries, Halfpenny is a disaster for them, they don't have the depth or the confidence against the Wallabies, too many bad loses at home. I don't think the Wallabies have to be that great to win the pool and i don't think they are. The Boks look like they'll fly under the radar and with their backs against the wall after all the bad press at home, dangerous but they most likely meet AB's in semi
frisky
Guest
O.M.G. - you have given the kiss of death to my beloved ABs
Lindsay Amner
Roar Guru
Super 15 is not the top domestic competition for NZ, SA or even recently for Australia. The Currie Cup and the ITM cup are the equivalent of the Top 14, not Super 15.
Loftus
Guest
or maybe the All Blacks should try and win the Cup blindfolded? i mean .. it is possible for them
Loftus
Guest
ag shame, another clueless poster on the site
Loftus
Guest
That 2007 Bok team beat the English 36 - 0...the same English team that beat the Wallabies and France. Yes,the same France that made the All Blacks cry in the Quarters. So please stop with the ridiculous statements about Fiji or Tonga almost beating the Boks...because they DIDN T beat them
taylorman
Roar Guru
I see Henry is now pushing dropped goals onto the Abs thinking. When you think about it if the ABs wanted to go the whole hog they could set themselves up to arrange their entire gameplan around dropped goals. Work their way to the goal line in front of the posts in a way that gives a clear path for the kicker, Aarons pass, and drop. Getting to that position probably isnt straightforward but if you removed all the temptations to have a go at the line, and instead head for that channel every single opportunity, I'd say they'd be dropping them from in front all day long. 3-6-9-12-15-18 why not... But how boring would that be... :-(
jaysper
Roar Guru
I reckon either England or (most likely) Wallabies will be pushed into QF1 against SA, where SA should prevail if they can put together a full 80 minute performance. Assuming England top their pool, I think they will meet SA or AB in the final. Any which way, there is going to be some awesome rugby played and I just hope all the teams (with the possible exception of France ;-) ) bring their A game. Furthermore, I hope there is a clear and undisputed winner with no bitching about food posioning or poor reffing at the end of it.
Lindsay Amner
Roar Guru
It's certainly a useful basis for a team but I still struggle to think of them as the best in the world. FDP may not get on the park, De Allende may be played out of position to fit in JDV, and a quick hooker can easliy step his way around Willie!
Lindsay Amner
Roar Guru
FDP was a great halfback several years ago. He hasn't shown anything like that sort of form in recent years. Even if he gets fit he's not likely to rediscover that form. The game has moved past him and he hasn't kept up, possibly because he is no longer regularly playing in a top level competition. We will see how he goes but I'll be surprised if he is terribly effective.
Lindsay Amner
Roar Guru
Totally correct Taylorman, a pretty much perfect summary of those years.