There are so many reasons why the Wallabies might not win the 2015 Rugby World Cup.
We’ve all thought about them: the scrum might not really be better, the halves are too flaky, the lineout is going to be a shambles, we don’t have world-class players in enough positions, and so on.
But I’m a Wallabies fan, and this is an Australian website – despite the regular patronage of readers from other countries, who are still a valued bunch – so I’m going to think about how the Wallabies could win.
More in our ‘Get behind the Wallabies’ series:
>> PART 1: Enough fighting already
>> PART 2: Believe in the Wallabies’ selections at the Rugby World Cup
What do you think the Wallabies path to victory is? Here’s mine. Tell me if I’m crazy.
The vice
The one section on the field where the Wallabies have a real chance to shine is the backrow. We and the rest of the world aren’t quite sure how good it can be yet in its current form, with Michael Hooper the tearaway, David Pocock the ruck terror and Scott Fardy strong in between, with a nose for contact. Behind them are three bodies that will be rotated in depending on the game, ground and situation.
The early signs of the David Pocock experiment were that the three flankers could perhaps combine to become a vice-like threat to the opposition – strangling their ruck, securing the Wallabies ball and buzzing around the opposition inside backs when they’d prefer an inch of space.
Time and space are two things that allow professional rugby players to execute their skill. The more of both the better. Hooper, Pocock and Fardy could squeeze those factors out of the game and cause composed players to waver and punish inaccuracy around the ruck.
The experiment has a long way to play out yet, and there is limited evidence, but what we have is mostly encouraging. The energy, speed and accuracy on offer in the backrow for the Wallabies could have halfbacks looking for the exit, runners called for holding the ball and clearing kickers hooking quickly into touch.
To make this work David Pocock needs to become a more secure eight-man in scrum situations, which is still a real skill.
The rock
Which brings us to… the rock of any Test rugby side.
It feels a little perilous to rely on such a green prop leading into a world cup tournament, but Scott Sio’s inclusion in the Test team seems to have brought a level of stability to the Wallabies scrum not seen for a while.
Sekope Kepu is a combative prop, both in the scrum and around the park. He compliments Sio’s rock-like qualities. Between them is either captain Stephen Moore or Tatafu Polota Nau. Suddenly the Wallabies front row isn’t worth laughing about anymore.
James Slipper has been playing valiantly in the role of loosehead prop for some time, but his slighter build and running and passing ability seems well suited to impact performances off the bench.
Greg Holmes brings some flexibility and Toby Smith will get into the rotation in situations to help his development.
Yes the Wallabies scrum has had many false dawns. But if things go in the right direction here – no injuries are suffered and no crises of confidence take hold – the Wallabies scrum is finally in a position to cease being a hindrance.
In close games winning the set piece scrum is like pulling on an oxygen mask – it’s vital and refreshing.
The star
In 1995 it was Jonah Lomu. In 1991 it was David Campese. In 1999 it was Tim Horan. In 2007 it was Juan Martin Hernandez. In 2011 it was Richie McCaw and his broken foot.
You can round off the list if you’d like, because at every world cup there is a player that stands out for their ability to continually drag and push their team to greatness. The team they are on doesn’t always win the cup, but it certainly helps.
The player that could fit this role for Australia is Israel Folau. Now in his third year of rugby, he’s about the play the tournament we’ve all been waiting for, if we’re honest. Australia isn’t getting its best return from him, a world-class/elite/one-in-a-generation/whatever word you chose player needs to step up in the biggest games and they’re about to come rolling in.
Starting in the pool stage Israel Folau can stamp his authority on the tournament by playing a counter-attacking game that northern hemisphere teams such as England and Wales rarely see and might struggle to cope with.
In the knock-out stages, and against southern hemisphere teams more familiar with him, Folau will have to concentrate on the basics and hunt around the fringes where the likes of Bernard Foley, Matt Giteau and Will Genia snipe. With balance unrivalled in rugby, Folau should be capitalising on the half-sniffs that rear their head in knock-out rugby games.
So far I’d comfortably say Folau is behind Ben Smith as the premier fullback in world rugby. And he probably doesn’t have the game to ever be as rounded as Smith is. But you get the feeling he has been holding himself back just a smidgen this year. If that is the case and he seizes this moment he may well be so efficiently devastating on attack in this tournament to make the case that whatever else he lacks doesn’t matter.
The heavens
Of course every world cup winning side needs a dose of luck to get the job done.
The Wallabies will probably have to hope for the odd favourable call, kick bouncing off the post or flustered winger dropping a pass. But if they employ a backrow vice, a rocky not crumbly scrum and have their star takeover they’ll be in a position to make that luck count.
Jibba Jabba
Roar Guru
That's 'duh'- der !
kezablonde
Guest
Yea, I,m heading to the Uni of Auckland next year for my Bachelor of Rugby. I don't go for dumb subjects like (all other) types of football, Swimming, anything that involves big scary waves, cricket, bicycle riding, etc . So yea, it's either the BR or the Bachelor of Rugby Organisation (BRO).
Frontrow
Guest
Really mate? - and your comment is just wishful thinking - his lack of reading the game and his poor defense in the Eden Park game was a big talking point on South African television post match so I guess we must all be wrong and you right huh?
BluesMan
Guest
Must say, all your points about Folau and his defense vs AB's are all wrong lol
Clifto
Guest
WBs did change their team completely, to be slightly fair. I don't agree with the decision to do so, but Cheika clearly was more interested in tinkering with combinations with an eye on the RWC, rather than the Bledisloe...
Yogi
Guest
What actually happened at Eden Park was that the match was very even in the first half and the Aussies looked good in the last 10. Early in the second half the ABs demolished Australia, mainly by upping the temp of the game when Australia were down to 14 men. Its hard to draw any conclusions about the effectiveness of Pooper from that. One thing it did do was force NZ to change their game plan and select Vito over Kaino. It has been a long time since any team forced a selection change on the ABs.
Riccardo
Guest
As does/did Picamoles, Goku. Your comment regarding execution of defined roles is spot on. It's also about the way they work in concert so to speak. As an example, when France were here in NZ a couple of years ago they gave the all Blacks a bit of a towelling at the breakdown and it was noticeable that Picamoles and Dusautoir worked well together, one isolating the player in the tackle and the other immediately lifting the tackled player and the ball. If they didn't get possession they got the penalty. For the record the Wallabies have a very proficient back row but the comments above seem to under-rate the Boks back row which I think is one of the best.
Goku
Guest
Agree - @James Boyd, unquestionably the best 7 on the planet?? Relax. He's good yes. The Wallaby back row could be in the top 3 if Pocock Hooper and Fardy fire consistently. The South African back row can be there also if they have a consistent enough starting trio. Vermeulen being back in the mix is good for them. The Irish trio would be up there for sure if they could stay on their feet. What makes a top back row is not having 'unquestionably the best no7 and overall loose forward on the planet' but having an effective back row with defined roles, each player fulfilling that role. The Wallabies are almost there, The All Blacks sometimes get there so too do the South Africans, Wales were there for a brief period and Ireland get close. Thierry Dusautoir gets an honorary mention.
Ted
Roar Rookie
Just imagine a Folau career last three years behind AB go forward and almost always winning team - and so comprehensively that running in more has little or no pressure.
Jerry
Guest
And they had lots of other matches where it mattered where they didn't even turn up. Yes, they can turn it on sometimes but for whatever reason they can't sustain a high level of commitment week after week. They're capable of producing performances that are above their level of form but they're equally likely to underperform and drop out meekly.
Phil O'Donovan
Guest
Defeated the AB's they were stuffed out of sight the following week.
Bakkies
Guest
'Well quite. One could argue that already four years ago Dusautoir only had the one huge match in him (the final). Not as a huge criticism of the man, none of this gets any easier as you get older.' Dusautoir plays that way for his club as well for the last few seasons. Has quiet games than bangs in a big performance. Will be interesting to see what Guy Novés does with his selections when he takes the French job. The backrow is crucial to the French and he has players knocking on the door. Watch out for young Macalou he was really impressive for their under 20s this year.
Bakkies
Guest
'Ireland as one of the best front rows must be influenced by where you live. Healy is a unnatural beast, but the other two are pretty regular. Ross seems to me to have very good and then less good tests. Best is a good player but he isn’t a whole lot better than moore and TPN let alone Bismark or that Argie bloke. I’d say Arg, SA, France.' Ireland won two tightheads against England last with back up loosehead McGrath starting against Cole. The Beast and Jannie du Plessis are average scrummagers. There's more to the Bok frontrow than just the hooker.
Bakkies
Guest
'Perhaps Gatland may take a leaf out of his book…just maybe…' No chance Gatland will drop his captain in this tournament. Not a hope. Gatland is also a big fan of Lydiate on the other side (Lydiate actually started off his career as an openside).
Frontrow
Guest
Woodward is on a personal mission to undermine Australia and NZ anyway he can who he sees as England big threats - Australia in the pool and he clearly thinks England may meet the All Blacks in the final.. He has embarked on a petty crusade to have a crack at the Wallabies and the All Blacks anyway he can by either getting under their skins or trying to influence referees And one gets the feeling he will get worse as the tournament progresses Wait for his column to emerge in the Daily Mail just before the Wallaby game against England with all kinds of put downs and trying to influence referees
Frontrow
Guest
SSkelton ‘phenomenal talent’ ????? What the? I doubt PeterK - and to his credit - would even claim that one - Yea sure Skelton is a phenomenal talent who runs out of puff - loses the ball in the tackle - and is a giant who is ordinary in the lineout and too often gets skinned by quicker forwards let alone backs in open play and has to be one of the slowest forwards in the world getting to the breakdown unless its pick and go... Look how quickly the All Black and South African and Irish locks get to the breakdown - they are Husain Boult next to Skelton Skelton's inability in the lineout forces Cheika to bench him if he wants to play Pocock and Hooper in the run on side and that is pretty bad statement for a lock - a position that requires one of the primary functions to be lineout jumping That does not scream "phenomenal talent" He is good ball carrier ( until he runs out of puff) and when he does not drop it in the contact and adds weight to the scrum ( though Australia has locks who are better technically in the scrum than Skelton as well ) and he is good in the rolling maul but he gets too pooped too quickly to be anything more than a handy bench player at this point in time - He is at his most potent a couple of meters from the try line where he draws players to him to stop his go forward but the game is not just played a couple of meters s from the try line The Kiwi boy would never have made the All Blacks if he had stayed in NZ and the feeling in NZ is that it is his brother - a monster as well - who is far more athletic and a better footballer but he too has fitness problems
Frontrow
Guest
Sorry breakdown Taylorman is spot on and watch the Eden Park game In Nonu's second try Folau rushes forward way too early taking him out of the last line of defense - major blunder and he was caught out in Nonu's first try as well In the penalty try he gets totally skinned by Milner-Scudder and again is a little out of position In the Conrad Smith try he fails to read the play and not the first time in the game - Yes Smith would have scored anyway but Folau at times looks lost in defense like he cannot read the play and I lost count of the number of times he did this in Super 15 and for big guy boy oh boy does he fall off tackles His % rate at making tackles is poor and remember the rule ' Fullback is always the last line of defense' ...so to say defense is not that important in that position is screaming that you know jack about rugby or that position No way is Folau the world's premier fullback and his weaknesses may get horribly exposed at this world cup just as he did at Eden Park - but never more so than a WC where players are so heavily scrutinized The problem is Folau has be promoted by the Australian Media like no other Wallaby and because and especially when Pocock was injured for so long...but they to deliberately turned a blind eye to his weaknesses except his low try scoring rate playing the All Blacks which even they couldn't ignore
Frontrow
Guest
Folay test record does not back up that he is most destructive back in the world - Nonu and Savea's record far surpass his - that is a stupid statement to make And I'm getting a bit fed up with this talk as if Ben Smith has no attacking game - he scored 6 tries to Folau's 5 in Super rugby and has 17 test tries and his is better in positional play - tactical play - kicking and defense Ben Smith is the best fullback in the world and he will prove it beyond doubt at this world cup Folau will get found out in defense and his average kicking game will get exposed. Rugby is also played i wet weather as well as dry and Folau does not have the game that Smith does in the wet. Ben Smith by far a superior player at the back and he was easily the best fullback in the Super Comp this year. His tries - one more than Folau and his countless try saving tackles were instrumental with Aron Smith in winning the comp Defense and tactical kicking are two of the most important roles of any fullback and Smith is quicker as well as rugby HQ pointed out. Smith is the superior player at the back and he is very good under the high ball as well. he would not be the All Black fullback if he wasn't and he was superb under the high ball when he played on the wing for the All Blacks. His game is better as is his skill across the park in that position
Frontrow
Guest
Folay test record does not back up that he is most destructive back in the world - Nonu and Savea's record far surpass his - that is a stupid statement to make
connor33
Guest
It'd be hard to disagree with this. But the point I was probably making was that a front row across a full 80 minutes is top 2-3 in the world with: Slipper Moore Kepu then Sio TPN Holmes This 6 is better than the SA and equivalent Argie 6 because their is such a drop in quality between the SA and Argie (bench-aka finishers).