The Sydney Swans host the North Melbourne Kangaroos on Saturday night at ANZ Stadium, with the ‘prize’ for the winner a chance to fly out west and play the Eagles in a preliminary final.
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In years gone by, semi-final fixtures have been notoriously predictable. Despite the sides from the bottom of the eight coming in with the momentum of an elimination final win, they would almost always go on to stumble in the second week.
That was of course until 2014, when both bottom of the eight challengers stood up to advance to unlikely preliminary finals.
Perhaps it’s the memory of 2014, or perhaps there is genuine reason to believe, but either way there is certainly a strong sense building that another upset is on the cards in this weekend’s games.
North did it last year against Geelong, the question is whether they can they do it again in 2015 against the Swans?
According to The Roar‘s expert tipsters, North Melbourne are certainly capable. In fact, the Kangaroos have been picked across the board.
History however, it on Sydney’s side, having emerged against the ‘Roos in nine of their past ten meetings, including two elimination finals at ANZ Stadium.
Last five meetings:
Date Home vs Away Result Round 11, 2015 North Melbourne defeated by Sydney 75-91 Preliminary Final, 2014 Sydney defeats North Melbourne 136-65 Round 4, 2014 Sydney defeated by North Melbourne 48-91 Round 3, 2013 North Melbourne defeated by Sydney 92-131 Round 4, 2012 Sydney defeats North Melbourne 113-77
The Swans’ performance against Fremantle last week was gallant. Entering the match undermanned, their troubles would only compound when they lost Sam Reid to a hamstring injury. But against the tide, Sydney fought on, out playing the Dockers for large portions of the match, falling nine points short of the upset.
They will need to produce more of the same this week to hold back an in-form ‘Roos outfit hungry for revenge for their preliminary final loss last year. Their forward line may be depleted with Reid out for the remainder of the season, but the Swans do get a boost in defence welcoming back Nick Smith.
The ‘Roos have opted to enter this clash with an unchanged side to the one that ran over Richmond in Week 1.
Adam Goodes looked like one of the youngest men on the field against Fremantle. (Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media)
The keys
Ben Jacobs will play a key role in this match after proving his value against the Tigers, restricting Trent Cotchin to nine touches. Dan Hannerbery and Josh Kennedy ran rampant against the Dockers last week and the decision of who to send him to, and the impact he can have on their output could be immense in determining this match.
Sydney’s ability to negate North Melbourne’s ruck dominance will also be crucial – we all know the form Todd Goldstein is in after all. When these sides met in Round 11, Goldstein smashed Mike Pyke with 37 hitouts to 19, as the ‘Roos topped the clearance count 43 to 27.
If they can get on top here, in addition to shutting down one of Sydney’s key midfielders, they’ll be well on their way to toppling the Swans.
Will the clock be wound back once again?
Two players that all AFL fans should be excited to watch in this match will be the oldest men on the park – Brent Harvey and Adam Goodes. Both wound with clock back in the first week of finals picking up 31 and 25 disposals respectively.
They’ll be called on to step up again this week, something they seem to continue to relish. Both have the potential to lift their team with a single play and could prove the difference in the tight moments.
Prediction
With the state of Sydney’s injury list, it’s a little surprising the odds aren’t closer in this match. The momentum is in the favour of North Melbourne, and along with wind in their sails, they’ll be hitting the field with their best possible side.
With so many ticks in the pros column for North Melbourne and crosses in the cons column for Sydney makes this game a genuine 50-50 contest.
Expect Sydney to recover from their big trip west, and return with the belief that they were more than capable of winning against the Dockers had they taken their chances.
North will make this match a brilliant contest, but even a battered Swans unit can be near impossible to drag down.
Sydney by 7.
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