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Sorry Australia, while commentators, rugby scribes and pundits are calling for the public to get behind and believe in the Wallabies, they will be lucky to get out of their pool at the Rugby World Cup.
If they do find a way to slip through, they will be soundly beaten in the quarter-finals by South Africa, who will be over the team quota issues that have distracted them in recent weeks.
Do not read too much into the Springboks’ August loss to Argentina in Durban, as coach Heyneke Meyer was experimenting, given the Rugby Championship trophy was out of reach after losing to the All Blacks in Johannesburg.
My prediction is based on three important factors.
1. The Wallabies are extremely thin on experience
Thirteen of the Wallabies squad have never been to a Rugby World Cup, so dropping the experience of 2011 World Cup captain James Horwill was a major call.
Also, coach Michael Cheika has been at the helm for only nine Tests – not enough to be taking a squad scattered with raw players.
Add to that, Stephen Moore – good and experienced player that he is – has only been captain for only a handful Tests. I rate him as a leader but when the crunch games come experience is required, and there is a genuine lack of that.
Moore will be called upon to make crucial decisions and not having Horwill’s wise old head will be substantial.
2. An injury at hooker and halfback
Cheika has gambled on taking just two hookers and halfbacks and this will come back to haunt him.
The two hookers he’s opted for are the best in Australia but both are injury-prone. A third hooker would have been a more sensible option. The two-day stand-down period for a replacement will prove costly.
At halfback, Will Genia was out injured during the latter stages of the Rugby Championship and Bledisloe Cup matches. If he succumbs to injury again during World Cup, the Wallabies can pack their bags, as Nick Phipps has been less than impressive in recent times.
3. An unsettled 9-10-12 combination
The Wallabies coach may have a combination planned, but they have not had time to gel.
Cheika has been tinkering with his halves and inside-centre mix ever since his impromptu anointment as coach on the eve of last year’s tour to Europe.
Matt Giteau is a great supplement to this squad but is still unfamiliar with the 9-10 pairing. They may have rehearsed countless times at training but on game day things will be totally different.
The Wallabies are looking down the barrel of an early exit from the 2015 tournament.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.