Make or break for Romain Grosjean

“It’s great that the team can confirm my position as race driver for 2016,” read the Lotus statement.

“Obviously there has been a lot of speculation about the future, and while I have remained focused on my job on track it is also positive to know that my future is confirmed.”

There was only one problem with the press release, transmitted in the early hours of Monday morning post-Singapore Grand Prix: it was in the voice of Pastor Maldonado, not Romain Grosjean.

One might expect that the other half of Lotus’ 2015 driver pairing – specifically the half that has scored 38 of its 50 points so far this season along with its only podium finish – might have had his place confirmed before Maldonado, who has only twice finished in the points all year.

Sure, Maldonado brings an obscene estimated $70 million per year to the team through sponsorship, but this strangely timed press release, along with the absence of any news about the driver keeping the team competitively afloat, rings alarm bells.

All of a sudden it seems more likely than not that Romain Grosjean will be packing his desk in search for greener pastures.

Or yellow pastures, perhaps – his destination will almost certainly be the new Haas Formula One team next season, alongside Ferrari reserve Esteban Gutierrez, where he will hope to revitalise his brand as a top-tier driver.

Romain Grosjean, one might remember, has had a decorated career featuring such memorable moments as his point-less debut in 2009, his dubbing as a “first lap nutcase” by Mark Webber, and his terrifying vault over Fernando Alonso and subsequent first-corner carnage at the 2012 Belgian Grand Prix.

Such statistics, perhaps more familiar sounding alongside the name of the driver this week re-signed at Lotus, illustrate how far Grosjean has come, however. Romain 2015 bears no resemblance to Romain 2012 – he even shaved the sideburns for emphasis.

The transformation was rapid during the 2012–13 off-season, during which time he employed a psychologist to help him work through the troubles that were causing the undoubtedly quick driver to perform so erratically – a brave move, and one hopefully more drivers open their eyes to the value of which to replicate in their own careers – and by the end of 2013 he was the only driver not in a Red Bull to be in genuine contention for wins.

Grosjean’s career is one of those great comeback stories – he was dumped after his debut year, he tenuously reclaimed his drive two season later, and then he blossomed magnificently by learning from his mistakes – or it had all the makings of a comeback story, at least.

Lotus’ 2014 season was dreadful. It was burdened with uncompetitive Renault engines but didn’t have the cash to work around them in the same way Red Bull was able to. Its poor championship position spiralled into reduced cash flow this season, which has resulted in the team being unable to develop this year’s much-improved car.

The Grosjean gravy train, bar the odd standout performance when the recalcitrant Lotus was willing, ground to a halt, his talent wasted.

Enter Haas, bringing with it one of those rare moments in which the total number of Formula One seats on the grid expands. On top of that include that commander-in-chief Gene Haas has proclaimed he will not allow himself to be saddled with juniors and pay drivers and that he needs a quick, experienced hand. Could Grosjean be his man?

It’s a big risk, and the stakes were doubled with Renault’s talk of a Lotus purchase over recent months. The opportunity to drive for a works team, even if it may take one or more seasons for that cash and personnel injection to bear fruit, is extremely tempting, and almost certain to lead to success – though don’t ask McLaren about its works relationship.

On the other hand, Haas is being set up as Ferrari’s de facto B team. Ferrari has helped as much as is possible under the regulations to build the car around its Mercedes-equalling power unit in a partnership that will only strengthen over time.

The added benefit, of course, is that Ferrari will have access to all of Grosjean’s data. If he’s as good as is generally rated, he may well find himself in contention for a Scuderia drive in the future.

Speculation at the time of writing ranged from Grosjean having already signed a deal with Haas to him merely having two contracts in front of him, waiting for his signature. The decision has enormous implications for his future, with both promising much but guaranteeing little.

What would you do?

Follow @MichaelLamonato on Twitter live from the Japanese Grand Prix this week.