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Rose and Ryan: AFL season review Part 3

Expert
23rd September, 2015
11

Ryan Buckland: So Cam, we reach a very interesting part of the AFL ladder in our 2015 season review.

Each of Geelong, Port Adelaide, the Western Bulldogs and Richmond ended the regular season with winning records, and, particularly for the latter two, all had genuine finals claims at one point of the season or another.

As we’ve talked about over the past couple of weeks, the ladder is projecting to be super competitive around this range in the 2016 season. Of this group, do you feel comfortable to say anyone is a lock for the top eight next year?

Cam Rose: No, I don’t think I could say that about any of them at this point, particularly with so much to play out in trade week and free agency movements. A lot of people will say the Dogs should be a lock given their youth, and how much improvement they made this year, but we’ve seen in the past that the evolution of a club or list is never linear.

A lot will expect Port to bounce back, and write off their 2015 in comparison to Geelong in 2006. The Cats themselves will obviously be hoping to land Patrick Dangerfield and Lachie Henderson, which would make them a more attractive proposition, and I still don’t know if I’m ready to discuss the Tigers yet, although I suppose I’ll have to at some point in this conversation.

Ryan: Why don’t we get your Tigers out of the way, in that case, because I think they are a lock for the eight as we stand right now. While they haven’t won a final in the current run, Richmond have accumulated the fifth most wins in the league over the past four years, and above them sit Geelong, who I’m tipping for an almighty fall in 2016.

The trend points in one direction, and as I discussed when I previewed Richmond’s elimination final, they look set to take the ‘best defence’ team title from Fremantle as early as next year. Having a really good defence is the foundation, but as we’re learning in the current finals series attack is what gets you the chocolates.

So I know it’s raw for you. But I’ll ask anyway: what do you think Richmond need to get them to the final level they need to get to in order to contend for a flag?

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Rose: That’s a really nice stat for the Tigers you’ve accumulated there, that makes me feel a little happier. Richmond’s defensive resilience was impressive in the last two-thirds of this season, apart from when Adelaide and North ripped the them apart.

The common link between those teams is three genuine tall forwards that can split our defence up, and dangerous quick small forwards that we struggle to keep up with. If the Tigers can consolidate that defensive gameplan, they need to add some forward-line firepower.

We’re hearing that Richmond is into Harley Bennell, and he would obviously be gratefully accepted. Hopefully the Tigers can land both he and Chris Yarran, which all of a sudden adds legitimate spark forward of centre, as well as the middle of the ground with Bennell. And why not throw Jack Watts in there too.

A forward-line consisting of Jack Riewoldt and Tyrone Vickery as talls, Watts and Brett Deledio as mobile and complementary targets, Yarran in the pocket, and Bennell and Dustin Martin rotating forward and middle; that’s a group of players that no team would feel confident of containing.

Thinking of that, now I’ve got a smile on my face for the first time since the elimination final.

Ryan: That’s the spirit! Watts to Richmond is an interesting one, and there’s no doubt Yarran and Bennell would give the midfield group a bit more pace. See, it’s not the end of the world.

One team that will be hoping for a slam dunk this trade period are Geelong. They massively outperformed their collective ability in 2014, and came back to earth this season, missing the eight for the first time in a decade.

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Do you think 2015 was a sign of things to come? Or are the crazy people that think they will contend for the flag in 2016 as crazy as they look?

Rose: When you’re talking about players like Dangerfield, he is a game-changer, and could be worth any number of spots on the ladder depending on what’s around him. Henderson is a quality player if he can get his body right and confidence up, and we don’t know what shape Mitch Clark is going to be in next year.

With the right draw and the right players, I could definitely see a scenario whereby the Cats finish in the bottom half of the eight. But nor would it surprise me if they fell away a little further. I know you think it’s going to be the latter?

Ryan: Yeah I just don’t rate their young midfield group. They’re all very samey, and even though none of them project as particularly strong on the outside of the play, Geelong get destroyed on the inside, too.

But this is the system working how it’s supposed to, right? The Cats have been up the pointy end for the longest time, which means the cumulative effect of lower drafting over time ends up hitting the quality of players they have available. Don’t get me wrong they have a better group than some sides in the competition, but a group that includes Josh Caddy, Cam Guthrie, Jordan Murdoch and Mitch Duncan is never going to reach the heights of Gary Ablett, Jimmy Bartel, Selwood, Paul Kelly, Steve Johnson et al.

The addition of Dangerfield, which, I’ll admit, I’m starting to believe is more likely than not (even though I think Dangerfield is a better fit and is closer to a flag at Adelaide), would be a game-changer as you say. But I still just don’t see the talent around him and Selwood to be anything more than a slightly above average team.

One team that does, seemingly, have a bevvy of talent is the Western Bulldogs. On a scale of 1-10, where do you put their 2015 season relative to what we were expecting in March?

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Rose: Probably 126 out of 10. It has to be in the conversation for the single most amazing one-season turnaround this century, if not the history of the AFL. All of those players leaving (Ryan Griffen, Adam Cooney, Shaun Higgins), the instability of the club, and so much unproven talent.

I run my eye down the list of players, and can see at least a dozen that had career best seasons, and that figure could even be as many as 18. It’s an incredible feat of coaching from Luke Beveridge.

Were you as in love with the Dogs as everyone was?

Ryan: When I wrote about the Dogs after Round 2, one passage sticks in my memory: “Look, it’s premature to be talking about finals for the Bulldogs. But will they outperform early season expectations? If you’re asking me, count on it.”

The second sentence was a bit of a no-brainer, but I legitimately thought what we were witnessing was a young team clicking into place in a way young teams tend to do for five- or six-week patches.

It’s not supposed to last the whole damn season.

This sounds like a strange thing to say, but losing that first final was probably the best thing that could have happened to the Dogs from a forward planning perspective. It means they’ll slide into the second tier for the draw next year, and avoid double ups against the likes of West Coast, Hawthorn, Fremantle and Richmond – not that anything seemed to faze the Doggies this year.

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They will be much better served having a tilt from that second tier, matching up against the teams they very clearly leapfrogged this season. But can it last? Do you see a Port Adelaide-esque rise and fall happening at Whitten Oval?

Rose: On the Dogs, they could actually double up against the Tigers, given they’ll both fall into the 7th-12th bracket – Dogs fans should be welcoming that given they’ve won the last two against Richmond. Personally, I hope it’s just once…

Port were such a popular grand final tip in the pre-season, and it made sense to think so. They’d backed up their first season rise under Ken Hinkley with an improved finals performance. It’s hard to jump dramatically, but even harder to stay there.

But their finals performances in 2014 may have been deceptive, given they had only won three of nine going into September last year. Still, they have a lot of talent on their list, and the fact is they didn’t make the most of it this year. The Hinkley honeymoon factor has definitely worn off, and it’s time to bring the hammer down on them.

Ryan: Couldn’t agree more on Port. I didn’t have them at those lofty heights, but certainly thought they were in the frame for the top four given the way they showed they were capable of playing.

We’ve seen glimpses of it this year, most notably against Hawthorn in Round 21. They’re another team that’s gotten the Buckland Treatment in 2015, and one of my conclusions was that Paddy Ryder simply has to spend more time as the Power’s primary ruckman. When he spent time there, they looked better everywhere.

That’ll come further into focus now that Jay Schulz has re-signed, and Charlie Dixon looks set to join. Matthew Lobbe will be surplus to requirements, and it’ll be fascinating to see where he ends up (Sydney, perhaps?).

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Rose: I’m still amazed how many times we see ruckmen get talked about as anything but. Teams and supporters keep falling for it time after time. Ryder is a ruckman. Port did not draft a centre-half-forward or centre-half-back. They drafted a player they already had. If any club tries to draft Matthew Kruezer as anything but a number one ruckman, that club should be demoted to the VFL.

I’m a huge Dixon fan, I love him. Port simply must make the finals next year.

Ryan: They’re certainly a candidate for a top eight birth next season, as are any one of the eight teams we’ve looked at over the past two weeks. Let’s leave it there, and await the finalisation of our next four teams after this weekend’s finals matches.

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