The West Coast Eagles host the North Melbourne Kangaroos at Subiaco Oval in Perth on Saturday night for a chance to advance to the 2015 AFL Grand Final.
The red-hot Eagles enter this match as heavy favourites to reach their first final since 2006, but the recent history between the sides falls in favour of the underdog.
Not only did the Kangaroos get up against the Eagles in their only 2015 meeting – by ten points in Round 10 down in Tassie – they also have the memory of a 38-point win in Perth from 2014 to draw confidence from.
Perhaps though, the memory that will be looming most heavily is the enormous 96-point loss the ‘Roos were handed in an elimination final at Subiaco in 2012. That was a crushing defeat for North Melbourne, and the kind of loss that lingers with teams for longer than a single summer. We can be sure a number of ‘Roos will be drawing motivation from that result.
North Melbourne achieved redemption against the team that eliminated them from the preliminary final in 2014 last week, but it will be a big ask to do it again.
Last five meetings:
Date Venue Home vs Away Result Round 10, 2015 Blundstone Arena North Melbourne defeats West Coast 85-75 Round 11, 014 Domain Stadium West Coast defeated by North Melbourne 44-82 Round 8, 2013 Domain Stadium West Coast defeats North Melbourne 90-88 Elimination Final, 2012 Domain Stadium West Coast defeats North Melbourne 162-66 Round 15, 2012 Blundstone Arena North Melbourne defeated by West Coast 84-86
The ruck battle
One of the most enthralling aspects of this match is destined to be the battle that plays out between two of the league’s best ruckmen, Todd Goldstein and Nic Naitanui.
Goldstein has been the form big man in 2015, while Naitanui is undoubtedly the most athletic and exciting to watch.
What will make this duel interesting is how each plays to the others strengths and weaknesses. While Naitanui’s leap allows him to excel at centre bounces, he will likely find it more difficult to best Goldstein at stoppages around the ground.
Goldstein got the better of Naitanui in their most recent meeting, helping North Melbourne get on top in the clearance count 47 to 39. After leading all comers for the entire season, and averaging ten more hit-outs per game compared to Nic-Nat, it is clear that the Eagles’ mids will have their work cut out for them negating his influence.
The return of Matt Priddis
It’s a scary reality for North Melbourne that the Eagles made such light work of the Hawks in Week 1 of the finals without one of their finest players, Matt Priddis.
After playing every game in 2015, the reigning Brownlow Medalist couldn’t pull up from a mid-week training injury in time to take the field. We can be sure he’ll be 100 per cent for this match, declaring in the lead up that he would have played in a semi-final were it required.
Priddis is the Eagles’ leading clearance winner and averages the most disposals on his team; adding him back in next to the likes of Luke Shuey and Andrew Gaff makes for an imposing challenge for North.
The question then becomes who North Melbourne will aim to negate with a tag from Ben Jacobs. Jacobs has had a fine finals series so far, holding Trent Cotchin and Dan Hannerbery to a collective 29 disposals in the past two weeks. He’ll need to have another day out against his opponent (whoever that is) if the ‘Roos are any chance of tipping the match in their favour.
Can the 400-gamer do it again?
After topping the disposal count in Week 1, Brent Harvey would have been a little frustrated with only picking up the 16 touches while under the watchful eye of Ben McGlynn against the Swans.
But the fact that he is still the man teams focus on tagging, indicates the respect opponents have for the impact he can have on games. Despite being a little quiet on the stats sheet against Sydney, Harvey seems to always manage to spark his team. Most notably in the semi-final that came through kicking the final goal of the first half to give North a handy lead and all the momentum heading into half-time.
If Harvey can really sink his teeth into this game and hit the scoreboard on multiple occasions, an upset will become increasingly likely.
The finals specialist
One player who is also key to North keeping their unlikely eighth-to-a-flag run alive is Jarrad Waite.
He’s kicked seven crucial goals in two games this finals series and it’s beginning to look like the man is incapable of kicking less than three goals in a final.
The message will be simple for Waite – keep it up! If his finals tally doesn’t tick past ten on Saturday night, North will struggle to kick enough goals against the second most potent scoring side in the league.
Prediction:
So far in this finals series the Kangaroos have been impressive with wins against Richmond and Sydney, while the Eagles have required just the one stunning performance against the Hawks to arrive at a prelim.
The ‘Roos are one of just five teams to beat the Eagles in 2015, and if it weren’t for the fact that the Eagles were so dominant in their last home outing against the reigning premiers, the prospect of tipping the upset would look much more enticing.
But as impressive as the Roos have been to get to this point, it has been too big of an ask to travel to Perth and defeat the Eagles in 2015; just the one team has achieved it – Hawthorn in Round 19.
That being said, the determination the Kangaroos have shown in the last two weeks should give fans hope that it will be a much closer contest that the odds would have you believe.
West Coast by 17.
asd
Guest
I think he meant Sydney
Brad
Guest
Don't get the point in bringing Round 10 into the equation at all. Biggest travel in football and both the WA teams have a horrible record over there,so don't adapt well. If Essendon were to play Hawthorn tomorrow who would you pick? "But, but we beat them in Round 2". Funnily enough before finals since the midway point the only finals team they have beaten was Fremantle, far less impressive when put into context. I want to like North but you guys are making it difficult.
Stephen
Guest
So West Coast , whose home ground is outside had a tougher time adapting to wind and wet than North, whose ground has a roof. Don't fool yourself North also prefer a big dry surface.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
So the weagles were trying to win rd 10 but were beaten by the weather. Interesting. What will their excuse be tomorrow night?
Anonymous
Roar Pro
“North are just lucky they got to play Sydney last week as their form has been poor of late” They have won 9 of their past 11 games. Care to elaborate?
Phil
Guest
Not sure why people keep pointing to the game in round 10 as a reason to favour the Kangaroos. Yes, North did outplay the Eagles in that game (for the last 35 minutes anyway) but it was largely because the Eagles did not adapt well to the terrible conditions. Facing West Coast in Perth with perfect weather is a very different ball game. North are just lucky they got to play Sydney last week as their form has been poor of late and they were obviously missing a few key players which was clear every time the ball when into their forward 50, making it a easy night for North. Surely West Coast will smash North Melbourne tomorrow night and carry that momentum through the the Grand Final next week.