Players don’t go into the grand final hoping to win a Norm Smith Medal – they’d all be happy just to come away with the premiership.
But to win a Norm Smith is an incredibly hard thing to do. First you’ve just got to get there, to the grand final itself, something most players just never achieve.
Then you’ve got to take the biggest game of the year, and dominate it. It’s not easy.
The favourites
The shortest priced player to with the Norm Smith Medal is Sam Mitchell hovering around $6 in most markets, and it’s not hard to see why.
He’s had a magnificent season and gathered 26 Brownlow votes on Monday night. On top of that, he’s got the grand final experience to get it done.
However he’s not alone at the pointy end. Luke Hodge is at $7.50 to make AFL history and claim a third Norm Smith medal after winning the honour in 2008 and 2014.
He’s level with Matt Priddis, also on $7.50, who is the shortest-priced Eagle in the market.
Jordan Lewis at $9 isn’t far behind his fellow Hawthorn midfielders while a string of other Eagles also make for good prospects, Josh J Kennedy at $12, Nic Naitanui at $13 and Andrew Gaff at $14 are all capable of being match-winners on the big day.
The smokies
There’s plenty of players up the top of the order who could have a decent day by their standards and win it, but it’s not always one of the bonafide stars who comes away as the best on ground.
Take 2013 for example – it wasn’t much of a grand final for midfielders, and instead it was Bulldog-come-Hawk Brian Lake who dominated in defence and ultimately won the award.
And Lake could well do it again, if you think so, he’s priced at a good value $67.
Someone who looks like he could come from the clouds and play the best game of his life would be Sharrod Wellingham ($26) who has flourished under a move into defence this year and has been great in both the Eagles’ finals to date.
Another who is attracting some attention is Mark LeCras ($23). Often underrated outside Western Australia, LeCras’ excellent skill and goal-kicking nous could be just the weapon the Eagles need to break the game open. He’s the kind of player that could have 20 touches and kick three or four goals to be best on ground.
The gag bet
Last year people were rushing to put their money on Hawthorn cult hero Matt Spangher who was by a fair gap the least likely player on the ground to come away with the Norm Smith Medal.
Well, surprise surprise, he didn’t win it, and he’s not playing this year unfortunately either. Who is his spiritual successor as the least likely player to be best on ground?
David Hale at $151 just seems like a great fit to take the mantle. A ruckman/forward who has lost a fair chunk of his ability at either role – not to mention a fair chunk of his hair – he’ll likely take a hammering from Nic Naitanui in the ruck which will quell any chance he has of impressing the judges.
If you’d rather tip an Eagle to get absolutely nowhere near the medal though, key defender Will Schofield ($126) is probably your guy as one of the most anonymous members of the West Coast line-up.
My prediction: I think the key factor in this Grand Final clash will be the ruck battle, and that if West Coast are going to win, it’ll be on the back of a massive performance from Nic Naitanui. At $13, he’s my tip to win it.
Norm Smith Medal odds
Sam Mitchell – $6
Luke Hodge – $7.5
Matt Priddis – $7.5
Jordan Lewis – $9
Josh J Kennedy – $12
Nic Naitanui – $13
Andrew Gaff – $14
Jarryd Roughead – $17
Cyril Rioli – $17
Luke Shuey – $21
Mark LeCras – $23
Shaun Burgoyne – $26
Chris Masten – $26
Sharrod Wellingham – $26
Isaac Smith – $34
Jack Gunston – $34
Liam Shiels – $34
Elliot Yeo – $34
Brad Hill – $41
Grant Birchall – $41
Luke Breust – $41
Jack Darling – $41
Josh Gibson – $51
Matt Suckling – $67
James Frawley – $67
Brian Lake – $67
Paul Puopolo – $67
Dom Sheed – $67
Jamie Cripps – $67
Jeremy McGovern – $67
Matt Rosa – $67
Shannon Hurn – $67
Ben McEvoy – $81
Taylor Duryea – $81
Scott Selwood – $81
Josh Hill – $81
Ryan Schoenmakers – $101
Brad Sheppard – $101
Xavier Ellis – $101
Mark Hutchings – $101
Will Schofield – $126
David Hale – $151
Ben Stratton – $151
Angus Litherland – $151
Callum Sinclair – $151
Sam Butler – $151
Patrick McGinnity – $151
Scott Lycett – $151
Billy Hartung – $201
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