Now let me preface this by stating that New Zealand are the most dominant team that the rugby world has ever known. There are only two current sporting institutions that can match the domination they have demonstrated in the last four years: the Australian rugby league team and Serena Williams.
So it is always the strangest statistic in rugby that a captain wearing black has only lifted the Webb Ellis Trophy twice, an enigma for which no obvious solution seems apparent.
However, on Friday night we caught a glimpse of some of the reasons why their stroll to the title might not be the inevitability that many commentators have suggested.
Take the scrum, it took the arrival of Owen Franks and Tony Woodcock in the 60th minute to restore some semblance of order to what had been a developing worry. New Zealand were twisted, shoved back and bullied up front to the point Richie McCaw felt it necessary to disengage early and stop the quick ball appearing any quicker. It was a borderline call to say he was illegally disengaging from the scrum but everything great McCaw does is a borderline call, such is the nature of his position.
Nonetheless, a bit of perspective is needed. ‘Scrum problems’ here actually translates as ‘not total control’. The All Blacks still won all their scrums, and they were playing against a pair of props that ply their trade in the murky and violent world of French domestic rugby (Brive and Toulon).
That’s a place where men are grown like the fabled dwarfs of Middle Earth; compact and incredibly powerful, adorned with shaggy beards and excellent technique. Yet after Franks and Woodcock arrived the tables swung, violently at times, in the All Blacks’ favour. Not all bad then, a good test before reaching the knock-out stages some might say.
Okay, not bad then. A common complaint and reason for New Zealand’s underperformance in World Cups often is the lack of challenging group games, meaning an undercooked team are vulnerable to bushwhacking in the quarter-finals. Georgia did them a favour in the scrum then and at the breakdown where the ball was turned over 14 times.
Fourteen turnovers is an impressive statistic against any team but against the All Blacks it is astonishing. Georgia achieved this partly through brute force; the strong tackle taking the man backwards and then men getting over the ball. However there was a conspicuous lack of black shirted forwards around the breakdown to stop this Georgian mugging. When you look for these missing forwards in the first half it was apparent that they were committed elsewhere on the field.
Dane Coles, a world-class running forward in the middle of the park, positioned himself repeatedly out wide, apparently looking for that easy try against the weak opposition. In the end he can thank McCaw for his sharp running lines that enabled him to come away with the score he so craved.
However, on four occasions in the first half, when the Georgian defence looked about to crumble, the final pass found Coles rather than the much more threatening hands of Julian Savea or Waisake Naholo. Why was a hooker lingering in the outside channels so much?
I haven’t even mentioned the handling yet, with the ball hitting the deck so many times it felt like I was watching a colts game. The Georgian defenders were quick, taking the defensive offside line as a suggestion rather than a law.
This meant they were in the All Blacks attackers face milliseconds after the ball’s arrival. When they reached the attacking player they often let them know about it too, Dan Carter looking physically shaken at one point later in the second half.
Although that many handling errors is unusual it is not a symptom of terminal decline, just a bad day at the office against a lesser side.
Therefore, I can only suggest that some of the players did not take the threat of Georgia as seriously as they should have. True, the chances of Georgia winning was into the thousands to one but complacency is a cancer that can be very hard to recover from.
That’s the issue in knock-out rugby, there’s no allowance for losing and no space for complacency. South Africa had their wake-up call in the relatively cosy environment of a group game fixture. New Zealand never have that luxury because the shape of the draw always favours the top seed with a cake walk of a group.
Therefore I’m not sure what conclusions to draw from this, but there are some comparisons I could make between Georgia and another team whom New Zealand should fear more than most.
Georgia’s forwards are big, combative and brutal, much like the French. They have a strong front row who tend to get the benefit of the doubt from referees, much like the French. They have a back line that is willing to rush defence and flatten anyone who comes near to the ball, much like… well, I think you get the idea.
Add to that a world-class French back row, an arguably better set of front row forwards on the bench, a now settled and happy Frederic Michalak and a rejuvenated Wesley Fofana.
The French are the only team where form means next to nothing. If they win or lose depends on the way they feel on the morning of the match. In recent years the Six Nations has slipped down the priority list of the French player, behind their domestic competition and the European Cup. Philippe Saint-Andre has excused poor and at times baffling international performances with a Gaelic shrug and a ‘but we’re French’.
For that reason it is very hard to judge their chances leading up to this tournament but they have arrived with some quiet determination. They have a set of players led by Louis Picamoles and Thierry Dusautoir who can pressure New Zealand in all the ways that Georgia did and more.
There won’t be those spaces in open play for New Zealand’s speedsters to dance through with such ease, as they did last Friday. Plus Saint-Andre, for the first time ever, has had two months with his team to drill them in his playing style (refer to Sale circa 2006), which is exactly the style New Zealand seem to dislike playing against the most.
New Zealand have very few teams to fear but if I was a Kiwi supporter, and with no disrespect to Ireland, I would be cheering on the men in blue this weekend.
wardad
Guest
Yes it seems that even teams who have never beaten the ABs or won a game in 62 years against them are somehow their betters .Some utter nonsense or wishful thinking being tossed about .
Lindsay Amner
Roar Guru
But their winning record against NZ, who they play the most often, is only 59%. That lowers their overall winning rate.
Machiavelli
Guest
Might have to recheck the stats for Diamonds (Aus netball team) who have won 8 out of 11 world cups since 1957 or 1963 if I recall correctly.
Lindsay Amner
Roar Guru
Yes very apt, but remember a Zero was a very lightweight fighter plane. No Zero ever carried a torpedo or torpedoed anything. At Pearl Harbor, they didn't even carry bombs as they needed extra fuel tanks just to get there and back. the rest of your comment is very true.
Lindsay Amner
Roar Guru
Mostly rubbish. The All Blacks have a 76% win ratio over more than 100 years. No other international team can match that. The Kangaroos are at 67%, the Diamonds around 65%. Australian ODI team is at 64%. The US basketball team for many years was picked from their college sides so their overall international record is poor. Since they picked the top professionals their rate is 94% but before that it was under 50% Brazil football team has a 63% win rate. The All Blacks are the best international sports team by winning percentage by quite some margin.
Lindsay Amner
Roar Guru
Tend to agree. The Australian League team winning ratio is 67%, well behind the All Blacks 76%. Serena Williams' win percentage is 81% but as an individual she's not really comparable with a team sport. She also plays far more often against very inferior opponents in the early rounds of tournaments, which the All Blacks do only once every four years.
Lindsay Amner
Roar Guru
I agree France are looking good and therefore I'm picking them to dispose of Ireland this weekend. I think the All Blacks will also struggle with Ireland as they are a team that Schmidt knows well and you can be assured that he will have a plan prepared for how to overcome the All Blacks. Whether his plan is successful is another matter as I'm sure that Steve Hansen will have plans to deal with Ireland. I'm just looking forward to how it all unfolds. If the All Blacks do have to play France I'm sure that there will be no complacency in the NZ camp.
Lindsay Amner
Roar Guru
Actually the draw does not favour the top seed at all. The draw is done by taking the top four teams, then the next four teams then the following four teams. Each team in each set of four is treated equally in the draw, with one falling randomly in each pool. NZ could easily have ended up in the group of death instead of Australia. This would have been a great result!
wardad
Guest
So their women are the ones with or without beards ?
wardad
Guest
If you look at the actual stats France are NZs bunny ,or do we ignore the 4 from 6 RWC games NZ have on them ? How many games on the trot have France lost to NZ ? And this France doesnt have the firepower laying about waiting to be used on the odd occasion they can be bothered . Lets see the ABs against them in the quarters ,if your life depended on it who would you back ?
stash
Roar Pro
Matthew. Good comments and quite valid. A team like Georgia know that they were never going to the finals. And for the players, this was likely their only chance to play against the All Blacks. This was their "moment" of their rugby lives. It's one of the great things about RWC. Minnows getting to play the powerhouses. Spectacular performances aside, ie Wallabies and Wales games... No top tier team wants to be drawn against the All Blacks. That's a fact. And they top the wishlist of the team to avoid. Consider the Irealand, France game....which should be a cracker. They are not just playing to win, but to avoid the Darkness. I personally think a bit of pressure for the ABs to lift their game is kinda better than trying to maintain their game. Over-belief can bite the ABS, ie Sydney, while real hunger for performance brings out the best of them, ie Eden Park. I fully expect the ABs to bring their A game to the finals. The soft draw in their pool, due to them being ranked number 1, really meant they had only 3 games to win (Argentina aside, and in fact it didn't even matter if Argentina had won... The ABs were always going to be in the finals).
Paul from Melbourne
Guest
Go Wales! We need them to have a massive game. It is about time their luck turned. They were knocked out by the French because they played 14 men during the last tournament plus the unbelievable injury toll for this tournament. I'm nervous for them but I think they can do it this time.
Paul from Melbourne
Guest
"New Zealand were twisted, shoved back and bullied up front to the point Richie McCaw felt it necessary to disengage early and stop the quick ball appearing any quicker." Actually the All Blacks scrums were solid on their own feed, it was only during the opposition feed that it went backward, because McCaw popped his head up seagulling and wasn't pushing. It is time that a slightly different approach was used. On a scrum in opposition half, the possible damage done by a running number 8 is more than compensated by having a strong 8 men scrum. As a New Zealander, I would relish the chance of All Blacks facing France in the quarter final. It would be a good opportunity for the All Blacks to test themselves, to see whether they have what it takes. We could lose but we can win too. If I was French I wouldn't be too keen though. Les Bleu's chance of surviving past the semi is practically zero if they play the All Blacks. They could lose to All Blacks in the quarter final and exit. Even if they win the quarter final, they will be ousted in the semi by practically any team, let alone the Boks. For self preservation, they would be very keen to top their pool and avoid the All Blacks.
Bazza
Guest
We can`t get a read on their form Mace 22.. They are playing a mixture of park rugby players and NH club players to be fair...
chucked
Guest
Matthew, Good article, but explain to me how the All Blacks are now ALSO RANS?? Argentina has one of teh finest packs in world rugby = Georgia's pack is not bad either - some massive men in there. Romania are heading that way, as are Fiji AND italy. Give teams exposure such as that given to the argies in the RC and the sky is the limit for the euro teams - remember there woman could all be monster props These minnows live and breathe for the chance to chuck it to the AB'S and they give it everything. Its often that you see a team doing very well against the all blacks then capitulating in the very next game / games as a 30 year all black fan and someone who has watched every second of every game in the 2015 RWC I am not in the least worried. I have seen this pattern of play many times. Our bench is our key asset. Let Australia convince themselves that they have 'two teams' to solve the worlds problems - remember the AB'S two teams theory under Henry in 2007...didn't pan out too well the ALL Blacks will bounce back against Tonga, strike form against Ireland and sit back in the lounges watching SA beat the Wallabies in the quarter final (after wobblies lose to Wales) as payback for Pocock playing the 2011 with a foot of mud on his knees for all the times he was off his feet and unpenalised by the Kiwi Ref
nickoldschool
Roar Guru
Did you honestly think I meant baseball and NFL as sports which are more global than rugby, seriously? You have to be a bit more perspicacious in life mate.
Jake
Guest
Nope. US basketball team, Australian Netball, Australian ODI, Brazilian football are just a few of the plethora of global sporting teams that are more successful than the all blacks. 2 world cups in sport they supposedly dominate? Give us a break. You can start claiming they are the "the greatest sporting team" when they have a record that comes close to the above mentioned teams. At present, their is record is very average.
Ralph
Roar Guru
Bring it.
Taylorman
Guest
Ha ha, hopefully that one will be lost anongst the pile of posts somewhere. The trouble is, the eden park type wins come fairly frequently but would anyone have aaid ABs by 28 after losing. Not easily. But its always a possibility
Taylorman
Guest
Fair comment nic.... Sometimes we just need to convince ourselves of the fact, we're really a nervous lot at heart!