The AFL’s grand final 'problem'

By Brandon Marlow / Roar Pro

In the wake of Hawthorn’s historic three-peat there has been an incredible outcry from Australian sporting fans.

Plenty of people have expressed how boring they think the AFL is due to Hawthorn playing in their fourth straight grand final, while a startlingly large amount of people are suggesting that the AFL has become too predictable and are claiming only a handful of teams can be successful.

However, if the past 15 years are anything to go by that is not the case.

Over the past decade-and-a-half seven different teams have won the AFL premiership and 10 different teams have reached the grand final, quite similar to the NRL’s mark of 11 different premiership winners and 12 grand finalists.

The AFL does similarly well when stacked up against some of the biggest sporting leagues in the world too.

The NBA has crowned seven different champions with 12 teams making the finals, while the NFL and NHL have had 11 and 17, and 10 and 16 respectively.

It should also be mentioned that the AFL is leaps and bounds ahead of the English Premier League, which has only seen four teams finish on top and five teams place in the top two.

The myth that only a handful of clubs can achieve success is further dismissed when you look back through each grand final from 1998 until 2015. Every team in the league (excluding Greater Western Sydney and Gold Coast) has made the grand final, except for Richmond and the Western Bulldogs who made three straight preliminary finals from 2008 to 2010.

Furthermore, outside the two new expansion clubs, and the Bulldogs, Richmond, Melbourne and Fremantle, every club has participated in at least two grand finals since 1995.

That sounds a lot better than the late 1970s and early ’80s when only a handful of teams won and participated in grand finals.

With Richmond, Greater Western Sydney and the Western Bulldogs all rapidly improving it looks like the list of teams that haven’t made the grand final in recent memory could be set to shrink even further.

Currently we are looking at the most equal league in VFL and AFL history thanks to numerous measures put in place, allowing teams like Port Adelaide, West Coast and the Bulldogs to dramatically improve from one year to the next.

The run of success we are seeing at Hawthorn is something we should savour in an era where the AFL has done everything to prevent dynasties being formed.

Hawthorn have performed perfectly in all aspects of building a club up from mediocrity. With such a heavy emphasis now being placed on giving everybody an equal chance in the premiership race, we’re unlikely to see this ever again.

The Hawks may be a juggernaut, but the premiership is still a realistic goal for every club in the AFL.

The Crowd Says:

2015-10-12T09:23:09+00:00

Mick

Guest


Hawks smash teams and make them go down the ladder, that's why it seems like we had an easy draw ;)

2015-10-12T09:15:48+00:00

Mick

Guest


What bollocks Edgar. Hawks real core of key players since 2008 (Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis, Birchall, Roughhead, Rioli.) are all home grown. Players like Lake and Hale are icing.... Hawks have done good recruiting, choosing players with premium kicking skills, its nothing to do with the club being well off. The Hawks are rich from being successful not the other way round.

2015-10-08T09:51:47+00:00

andyl12

Guest


We've said it umpteen times, Jax, build a stadium worth playing a GF at and teams will come.

2015-10-08T09:37:04+00:00

DeanM

Guest


Where is my team? Answer: on top of the ladder 3 years in a row. The AFL plans the draw in advance not knowing but guessing how teams are expected to perform. The AFL again planned for the Hawks to have a harder draw it just didn't end up that way. Also it's not just who you play but also where you play. I personally like the unsociable side to the team, it reminds me of the 80's. Last Years Grandfinal was Brilliant that 1st QTR set the tone and rattled the Swans, especially Hannabery. This year the Hawks just put on a skills clinic and played nice. Hawks had an inconsistent year, especially after the 4-4 start but from that point on they were the best team in the comp. The Hawks did also have easily the best record against top 8 teams overall and the best record against the top 4 teams. This is the reason the won. Hawks vs Eagles in AFL Grand finals, Hawks 2 vs Eagles 00000

2015-10-08T08:25:00+00:00

WhereIs Your Team

Guest


At the end of the season,it appears,from the finishing positions of the teams that they played- that Hawthorn had a softer draw than the Eagles. I hear a little balloon, assiduously pumped up all year slowly deflating and making a whinging sound. The Hawks play great grand finals and good seasons,soured by the lack of condign punishment for ugly behaviour. This year the Eagles played a great season, probably above everyone's expectations but a lousy Grand Final. No one tipped them to rise this year but many are saying they'll fall next year. If the pundits and various correspondents on the Roar,got it so wrong in 2015, their collective wisdom doesn't count for much in predicting the Eagle's fate in 2016 Next season, there'll be a lot of teams after their scalp.I'm looking forward to seeing them meet that challenge

2015-10-08T07:46:03+00:00

DeanM

Guest


Stop trying to make excuses and whining all the time. The Hawks are clearly Grand final specialists and their success intimidates the opposition. Would not have mattered what ground they played on Hawks would have won that game just like Eagles would have won that elimination final. Don't forget Eagles also lost a game to the Hawks at Domain. After finishing second West Coast won't have the benefit of a soft draw.

2015-10-08T06:52:18+00:00

jax

Guest


WC led the Hawks by 50 points at 3/4 time in the qualifying final at Subi. Hawks led WC by 50 points at 3/4 time in the GF. WC finished higher yet they had to play away. The Hawks have played in the last four GF's and all of them were against interstate clubs playing on Hawthorns home ground. Is it any wonder they've won three straight? Great club no question but come to Perth and play the GF and see if as easy as it is at home.

2015-10-07T14:36:26+00:00

AB

Guest


What a great post! All these people bemoaning Hawthorn's success seem to either forget that it's built on the foundations of what was, for many decades, the VFL's least successful club. Or alternatively, they want to invent theories about Hawthorn poaching the best players from other clubs. Even though most of our recruits from other clubs have been the results of clever trades (meaning we gave up something to get something) or have been middling players who've been turned into stars at Hawthorn. And it C

2015-10-07T10:22:14+00:00

Karla D

Guest


Yes but what you forget is AFL has 18 teams and the NRL has only 16 teams, so the averages are really bad, I did the stats on the last 11 years and it was 8 AFL teams to 11 NRL teams which means less than 1/2 of the AFL teams made the grand final and over 1/2 in the NRL, it does make a difference.

2015-10-07T09:19:51+00:00

Brian

Guest


North Melbourne were very good in the 1970s making 5 GF in a row and then were great again in the 1990s yet that has translated into much supporter wise.

2015-10-07T08:47:27+00:00

andyl12

Guest


Hear hear!

2015-10-07T07:51:22+00:00

Simoc

Guest


I've missed the incredible outcry despite following. An invention of yours perhaps. Maybe write something worthwhile!

2015-10-07T07:17:00+00:00

Gomez

Guest


I was born in Hawthorn and lived there for twelve years. I was the only boy in the area who barracked for the Hawks. The joyous memories of only losing by six goals to Collingwood or Richmond still remain. The wheel has turned now and I have no time for the bleating from other clubs. Hawthorn have just been a lot smarter than the rest.

2015-10-07T05:15:41+00:00

lester

Guest


Idk if it changes anything but comparing AFL Grand Finalists to EPL Top two is wrong because Finals have the effect of randomising results. Either compare the Grand-finalists to FA cup finalists or the AFL Minor Premier and runner up to EPL 1st and 2nd place.

2015-10-07T04:27:10+00:00

ProfVonSchrodinger

Guest


Perhaps the NFL and NBA have had more champions because they have a dozen or so more teams in their respective comps?

2015-10-07T03:33:20+00:00

Happy Jack

Guest


They need the odd RL referee who mastered the art of "entertaining" Grand Finals

2015-10-07T03:18:26+00:00

Brian

Guest


Alternatively of the 4 GF Hawks have won 2 very comfortably, with some margin in 2013 and the one they lost could easily have gone the other way so the 3 peat could also have been a 4 peat. I'd say 15 points is generally the tipping point at which the better side wins. Of the last 10 years only three premiers have won all the finals they needed to by 15+ points. Hawthorn 2008 and 2015 and Geelong 2011. None of those sides were the minor premier in that year. For pure dominance of being minor premier and winning every final comfortably I can only think of Essendon in 2000. That though was a hardly and era with just the one flag.

2015-10-07T02:55:53+00:00

Pope Paul VII

Guest


The main problem is if your team has not been battlewagons like Brissie, Geelong and Hawthorn. Sydney have been the only real spoiler, nabbing 2 when unfancied. Maybe Collies as well, in that they are the game's best runner up so it's always a shock when they win one. Poor old Saints, nearly broke the drought but alas. Somehow they found a way to lose. The biggest problem is Footscray. No GF appearance since 1961, a loss against......you guessed it....Hawthorn. How is that have not gathered another squad to get to the big one in all that time? Just on being better than the 70s and 80s. This is only partially true regarding the 70s. Dreaded Hawthorn's 71, 76 and 78 wins were there 2nd, 3rd and 4th respectively. The 71 win was a narrow win over St K, when both teams were 1 all. Maybe we should blame the Saints ( and Footscray ) for letting them out of the bottle. North won their first and second in 75 and 77. So all in all it was a battlerfest as they shared the decade with big knobs Carlton and Richmond. These days the battlers are no better off. Dunno how you change that.

2015-10-07T02:53:29+00:00

Ian Briggs

Guest


So you think success should be managed and punished---reminds me of when I was a lad and the only ice cream was vanilla os worse still let's be PC about everything and no reward for success!!!

2015-10-07T02:33:54+00:00

Milo

Roar Rookie


Yep, Geelong best team in H&A 08, Saints best team in H&A 09, Ess best team in 99... I could name lots of similar. Who cares? I think its more the case that Hawthorn doesn't necessarily WANT to dominate the H&A season. Top four is their consistent aim. Top 1 counts for nowt - who gives a rats toss (As Blighty would say) about minor premiers ? Clarkson & co's smart management of the group throughout the H&A means they play their best football in finals, and they know it too. To my mind that is domination of the competition.

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