In the knockout matches, it is all about nerves. Some people can control theirs and others can’t.
This will be the major preoccupation of the large battalions of support staff around the teams heading into the play-offs – keeping the players optimistic and focussed only on delivering when the chips are down.
All this might sound a bit ephemeral but make no mistake – it plays a very big part in the margins between winning and losing. The horror of finding yourselves collectively choking when things begin to go wrong is one that all coaches and those who provide mental advice must now focus on. It can have disastrous effects as several All Blacks teams in the past have found.
Interestingly, the risk of a collective choke is greatest for those who are most expected to win. The sudden realisation that defeat could be a real possibility can produce a kind of fatigue that almost always gets worse as the tension mounts.
The All Blacks are well aware of this phenomenon. They are the favourites no matter how hard people might try and persuade themselves that the Wallabies should now carry that mantle. The Wallabies don’t want that, don’t need it and for reasons of history wouldn’t believe it anyway.
The other teams in the play-offs have less to lose. They are grateful to have made it this far and know that from here on it is little more than a lottery. And they know that whatever the outcome their fans will be satisfied that they got this far.
For the All Blacks the mindset is very different. They have everything to lose by a single defeat whether it is a quarter, semi or final.
A huge amount of work has gone in from experts like Gilbert Enoka or Gary Hermansson, the sports psychologists closest to this squad of players, who have explored the depths of each player’s psyche when it comes to dealing with the pressure of facing the prospect of defeat when the opposition begin to get the better of them. Nobody talks about this very much publicly but it’s arguably the most important preparation of all.
Then fact is, some players have an inbuilt ability to turn adversity into an asset rather than letting fear of defeat overwhelm them and impair their judgement. And some don’t. And it’s those individuals who need to be carefully schooled in the art of refocussing on essentials.
In the infamous matches against France – in 1994, 1999 and again in 2007 – the same thing happened. An All Blacks team which was far superior in talent and athleticism and an understandably hot favourite, slowly sacrificed its composure because a number of key players, at key moments, lost their ability to make the right judgement call. Shock set in.
And the sense of helplessness began to spread to the extent that, toward the end of each of those matches, the All Blacks gameplan had all but vanished. The players had effectively forgotten what it took to steady the ship.
Over the years this question has continued to hover around every All Blacks team. Will they choke?
It was a question Australians thoroughly enjoyed asking. In the 2011 final, again against their perpetual tormentor – France – some of the same symptoms began to appear as the second half wore on and the French began to realise they had a chance of winning and began to go for broke.
But that time we discovered that the lessons of the past had been learnt. The tactical plan was reimposed, the New Zealanders effectively shut the game down and ground their way to victory.
A lot of work has gone into building this mental fortitude over the last four years and there isn’t the slightest doubt that we are going to see that sorely tested in at least one of these play-off games.
Old hands like Conrad Smith, Richie McCaw and Dan Carter give this All Blacks team a remarkable maturity. They are savvy, self-contained individuals who are very unlikely to succumb to the choking disease.
They have learned through hard experience what it takes to retain composure when it really counts. And if they do that successfully nobody will beat them.
It’s as simple as that.
Callos
Guest
Jerry, good luck for the rest of the tournament. May the best team win
taylorman
Roar Guru
Yes I remember Oz losing that a few hours earlier. Oz were clear favourites and I remember vividly saying at least we're not going to do that, even thinking the oz loss would be a reminder to our boys of what can happen...
taylorman
Roar Guru
Yes it was surreal. It still came as a massive shock that we lost that, particularly since the side had destroyed most sides that year, losing just the one in Melbourne. There were huge victories leading up to this match, including big wins over France. So based on that, an upset in 2015 wouldn't be as big as 2007.
Jerry
Guest
I'm not acting like I own anything, but that kick missed by miles and only the biggest tin foil hat wearing loon would claim it went through.
Jerry
Guest
I must be a bit of an unco, cause I tried a tightrope 1m off the ground and kept falling off...
Jerry
Guest
"I remember many articles in 2007 about how the 07 French team was incapable of repeating the feat of 1999 as it’s players were more limited, didn’t have the flair, etc etc blah blah blah. Write off any French team at your peril." To be fair, the 07 French side had a LOT of cards fall their way, on top of their very good play. Without both Carter & Evans going down injured and Barnes putting the whistle away, we might just be remembering a gutsy performance rather than a huge upset.
Callos
Guest
New Zealanders seems much like the Brazilians when it comes to FIFA World Cup ....... Kiwis act as if they 'own' the sport and the RWC trophy?
Jerry
Guest
"which arguably went through the sticks" Thanks for including that bit, I might have taken you seriously if you hadn't.
Boris
Guest
Instinct will often save your life, where thinking will get you killed. My Army parachute instructors good advice!
Callos
Guest
How so very condescending is this piece? "The other teams in the play-offs have less to lose. They are grateful to have made it this far and know that from here on it is little more than a lottery. And they know that whatever the outcome their fans will be satisfied that they got this far." Every one of the teams that have made the 8 believe that they can win the Cup, not only NZ. The Kiwis have choked in every RWC outside NZ for one reason and one reason only. The "Hubris" shown once more in this article So , typical of NZ arrogance when it comes to AB's It is their "Achilles Heel" ................which as mentioned nearly took them out in RWC2011 if not for a shot at goal by France which arguably went through the sticks and could have won the game for them.
Lee
Guest
We need a betting button on this site. Maybe we could earn 'likes' or 'credibility points' by public acclamation of our articles or comments and then use the points as notional currency to make bets with other contributors. If I could do that, I'd stack up all of my points/dollars against yours and I'd give you odds of 5 to 1 that the ABs deliver a righteous beating to France this weekend. People seem to remember the game France lost to us in 2011 by a single point and strangely seem to forget the game they also lost to us in 2011 by 20 points. Then they also forget the 3 games they lost to us in 2013 by a total of 55 points. It's like they can only remember the 2 games they won against us in the last 15 years and don't notice the 16 games they didn't win. V. strange phenomenon.
Lee
Guest
In the last 7 years up to 28 July 2015, the AB away record is 41 wins out of 48. That's 83% success. That's better than any other nations' success rate overall. It's actually better than any other major nation's success rate at home. I think you can say that we know how to win away from home.
Lee
Guest
PS. When Dan goes Bang! through the gap, he will do it so fast that he will take his own side by surprise too. Unless... he's playing alongside Nonu, who can read the same signs as clearly as Dan. He'll be flying up alongside Dan, ready for the offload. In fact, he may even be in front of him for a stride or two because he saw it coming. Watch Nonu some time - this happens occasionally. And it can only happen when the sub-unit of Dan and Ma'a play together dozens of times and train together for hundreds of hours. SBW and Fekitoa are building the same instinctive ability to read each others' games. That's why SBW's pop pass in the tackle right by the posts was thrown blind by Sonny and caught perfectly by Fekitoa 'Hey - where he come from?' Yeah, they both knew exactly what was on and what was never on and they both set themselves up for the one main chance. That can never happen when you run out two people who have never played together before. (Note to Stu Lancaster - stop changing your midfield). That's why you try to substitute units not individuals. Instinct is what SBW took two full years to develop in rugby union. He's got it now so sit back and enjoy it. It's what Sam Burgess hasn't got yet. So if he ever runs out against SBW then look away folks because it'll be ugly to watch. Sonny Bill will look at Sam and think - "You poor schmuck. I know exactly what you'll do in every situation, - probably before you even know it yourself. I even know what mistakes you'll make too. I made them myself once I changed codes - but not any more." I wish no player any ill - but I'd give a lot to see that match up. Instinct vs Thought is a drag race that instinct wins every single time.
Lee
Guest
Hiya SB I was just a run of the mill regimental officer. I learned what works about leading people in that job - but I learned a lot more about why it works since then, mostly just by reading stuff written by smart people. This is why I have such respect for Sir Fred Allan's approach to basic skills - you drill them into your people so thoroughly that it becomes like muscle memory. Once that stuff is deeply embedded, your brain is once again freed up to spend precious time looking at more complex problems than simply figuring out 'how do I do a grubber kick?' That’s why some really great players say that when they are 'in the zone' the game moves so slowly for them that it's like it's happening in slow motion. They seem to have all the time in the world to size up the situation and decide what to do. I reckon their brains aren't actually working any faster than others. Instead, I think that they are simply now focussing their higher brain like a laser beam on a very narrow range of critical and exceptional issues, confident that their response to all the other parts of the evolving situation will be instinctively correct because their middle brain is handling those problems the same way the lower brain handles routine stuff like breathing and digestion. On autopilot. Imagine Dan Carter about to catch the ball from a scrum half, deep in his own 22. Practise tells him he has three options - kick, pass or run. In that order. So he will first set himself up for the kick, leaving his limbs to sort themselves out to boot it surely and quickly to the right part of the field. This is the result of practice. Because he doesn't have to think about how to do that, he'll be free to use his brain to look for the critical and exceptional things about the situation. He knows he will only ever pass if for some reason a kick cannot be made. That seldom happens so his brain is now only thinking about one thing - is there a chance to surprise them with a run? Perhaps the opposition defence is reading his body language and is slow to rush up because they intend to turn and chase his coming kick? If Dan sees that, he knows how to bait them into this by making his kicking preparations even more obvious. Now perhaps one of them anticipates too much and moves a half a metre out of position. Bang! Dan's gone through the gap like projectile vomit and everyone wonders how he did it. But for Dan, the game was so slow in that moment that he probably wonders how no one else could see what he was up to. He's probably genuinely surprised at how he got away with it. I never did it that well on the footy field but I did experience many moments like this roping cattle. Once your arm knows what it's doing with the rope and your legs know what they're doing with the horse, then your brain just focuses on the cow and the rest all happens in slow motion. I also got in the zone when calling in artillery fire or working at high speed in a command post doing calculations and answering fire orders. Any time critical environment demands the same skills. And the hidden bonus of all that practise is this - your ability to simply catch and pass and kick and tackle becomes massive. One thing that stands out about great teams is that they can catch and pass and kick in almost any situation. That means they can also think. Practice frees the brain to do what only it can do.
Lee
Guest
Awesome ShortBlind - it's wonderful to see some ideas from outside the playing field/TV screen being introduced to support an argument. The brain chemistry changes that occur when adrenalin is released (to prepare for fight or flight or freeze) are significant. Adrenalin not only fuels the major muscle groups and starves the brain of blood, it also accompanies the shutting down of learning pathways and reduces the firing of neurons in the higher parts of the brain - chiefly the neo-cortex. This is where learning takes place and where sophisticated and creative thoughts occur. BTW - this is why the haka bothers me - it is wonderfully designed to artificially stimulate the release of adrenalin at the start of the game. That shuts down parts of the brain and may take a while to subside. In that period of readiness for physical combat, there's not so much thinking going on. I wish I had some stats available to tell me how long it takes for normal thinking to be resumed after an adrenalin flood. As the famous American philosopher Mike Tyson said - "Everyone has a plan untill they get punched in the face." I know it's a while because I have felt the effects and they are powerful and seem to last for several minutes during which time I am not a highly functioning thinker.. So I do hesitate to recommend that one punches oneself in the face just before a game in order to get sufficiently amped up. Maybe we should schedule the haka to occur before the anthems?
SpeedyG
Guest
Brillant, I'm planning global domination, may I have your email in case things go awry, jokes aside, I was wondering the other day will we see an all waratah back line (less a winger) at any point........ Imagine that for the boys
Bunratty c
Roar Rookie
So, bring in the psych boys and service is restored. Sigh. Why does everyone else bother to show up for these events, then?
Goldenaxe
Roar Rookie
Perhaps the AB's are just to well schooled come the RWC pointy end. To well drilled, to programmed, over analysed and non-emotional. Rugby is still a game where the heart muscle can win over everything else including the brain. Having said that I think NZ will really give the French a touch up this weekend. They will be wanting to send a message to the rest.
Goldenaxe
Roar Rookie
Only Aussies??
Tui
Guest
Yeah Pete it's pretty incredible what some people will tell themselves! In fact I would put money on the fact the AB's away records are better than or close to everyone else's home records