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Wales gifted South Africa three first half penalties that ultimately cost them the game. What’s more, two of these penalties came within a minute of Wales scoring points themselves, a fact that is sure to weigh heavily on Warren Gatland’s mind.
The penalties in the 11th, 15th and 19th minutes were given away by both locks, and all three of them were unforced.
The second two were the definition of ‘coach-killers’. The first was a lazy offside directly after Wales’ first penalty, and the second, an obvious and unnecessary kick obstruction by Charteris, was within one minute of their spectacular and only try.
The World Cup is a tough competition, and in the moment they may not have seemed that important, but in retrospect it is those small errors that can hurt so dearly.
Yes, South Africa allowed Wales to bounce back after each of their scores, but each of these occasions were forced through great play by Wales. What allowed South Africa to bounce back were small errors of effort and misjudgement.
Cruelly, the overall penalty count was Wales 12 – South Africa 9, and without those three penalties Wales wins what was an otherwise extremely evenly contested game.
The contest for possession in the tackle was fierce. Both teams threw huge numbers at the breakdown in the first half in an attempt to slow down the other’s attack. The Welsh changed tack after half time, but their pilferers were still on song with Warburton being the best.
Both teams got results with this tactic, especially Wales who exposed the Boks in contact. For all of their bash and barge tactics, South Africa lost seven possessions in contact in the first half and five in the second. Interestingly five of these turnovers were in the tackle itself, prior to the contest on the ground, so ball security will be a big focus for them moving forward.
Whether because of this contest or pre-planned, both teams looked like they were playing ‘Jake Ball’ – termed after Jake White’s philosophy of limited attacking rugby in your own half and kicking being your option on first, second or third phase depending on which zone you were in.
South Africa particularly were cautious in their play, mauling three out of their four lineouts in the first half and kicking three times in the attack. This wide kicking strategy – particularly to Peterson – is not new, but their accuracy and execution needs to be better for this to be a real option in coming weeks.
The longer the game went on the more Wales reverted to kicking as well, as both teams seemed cautious of breakdown penalties and preferred to apply pressure without the ball. For a clearly fatigued Wales this meant more and more tackling.
At the 60 minute mark, the second half possession stats were in favour of South Africa 78 per cent to 22 per cent.
The big take away for New Zealand will be that the Boks didn’t seem to know what to do with it. They relied heavily on forward carries, and attacked the third and fourth channel off the ruck well and straight, however outside of that they gained almost no direction from Pollard and as a result neither their centres nor outside backs really came into the game in attack.
Where the Boks were strong and will threaten teams is their physical strength in the breakdown and the momentum they can get with organised forward carriers.
They will punish teams who are slow to support the ball carrier, and put teams under penalty pressure if they attack in your half. This they will turn to points, and chip away like they did against Wales.
They ultimately deserved the win for this reason.
Full credit must go to Wales in this loss as well. They were clearly heavier in the legs than their opposition but their grit came through and they continued to put their bodies on the line time and time again until the very end.
Ultimately though, in hindsight I think as a team they will ask three questions of themselves;
1. Why did we stop attacking wide when we had made such good in-roads there in the first have?
2. Why did we stop attacking in general after half time with only a 1-point lead?
3. Why did we kick so much ball away knowing that it was going to lead to more tackling and exacerbate our fatigue?
Unfortunately in the tough world of professional sport, the individuals who made errors will have a lifetime to ask themselves why as well.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.