Today in our preview series we breakdown the middle of the East, purgatory’s purgatory.
There’s the exciting but flawed Bucks, the competent but not especially exciting Raptors, two deep, expertly coached teams with clearly defined ceilings in Detroit and Boston, and Paul George trying to carry the Pacers just like Al Pacino tried to carry The Devil’s Advocate (Monta Ellis is Keanu Reeves). We start in Naptown.
10. Indiana Pacers
Last season: 38-44, ninth in the East
Key arrivals: Monta Ellis, Jordan Hill
Key departures: Roy Hibbert, David West
Everyone needs to cool it on the Pacers. Vegas has set their over/under win total at 40.5 which seems generous considering this team has approximately three ‘good’ NBA players. The only way Indiana gets to 40 wins is if Paul George is Paul George again, which is by no means guaranteed. And even if George does reclaim his superstar status, his supporting cast is probably just terrible enough to drag him down into the mud with them.
The Pacers big man situation is, well, concerning. Ian Mahinmi, Jordan Hill, Lavoy Allen, an unproven rookie in Myles Turner and someone with the last name ‘Christmas’ represent Indiana’s big man rotation. That’s a catastrophe. George is allegedly playing the four and he is making no bones about the fact that he doesn’t want any part of doing so. His former teammates are laughing at the prospect.
In theory Ellis makes sense for this team because George can cover up his defensive shortcomings, but if George is in the frontcourt then Ellis is just as exposed as ever. Playing George at power forward might make sense if it opened up more playing time for talented wing players but this team doesn’t have any other talented wing players. Apologies to the families of C.J. Miles, Chase Budinger and Solomon Hill.
Frank Vogel is an excellent coach, George Hill is eternally underrated and if George resembles his 2013-14 self then the Pacers have a top ten player in the league. But this team is going to seriously miss Hibbert and West and without them it’s hard to see Indiana approaching last season’s seventh ranked defence. It just feels like there’s going to be a lot of Monta Ellis and Rodney Stuckey about this team, and I’m not sure that’s a good thing. In fact, I know it’s not.
Predicted record: 36-46
9. Milwaukee Bucks
Last season: 41-41, sixth in the East
Key arrivals: Greg Monroe, Greivis Vasquez
Key departures: Jared Dudley
Get off the Bucks Bandwagon people. There’s a good chance it’s driving into the abyss.
Milwaukee has become everyone’s trendy pick to make some noise in the playoffs this season. They were a six seed last year and pushed the Bulls to six games in the playoffs, they’re young and improving and they added low-post monster Greg Monroe to help them make a leap. Great. But remember this…
The Bucks were a six seed last year but they only went 41-41. After trading Brandon Knight for Michael Carter Williams, Milwaukee closed the season 11-18 with the fourth worst offence in the league and the highest turnover rate. Sure, they pushed the Bulls in the playoffs, but the Bulls might not have been that good and Milwaukee lost their last game by 54 points at home. That’s six less than 60.
The Bucks were terrible on offence last season ranking 26th in the league, behind Minnesota and the Lakers. They made the playoffs on the back on an elite fourth ranked defence. While we should expect the offence to get better with improvement from Giannis Antetokounmpo, a full season of Jabari Parker and the arrival of Monroe, the defence is going to slip.
The fundamental flaw of the Bucks is that their five best players can’t be on the floor at the same time. Carter-Williams, Giannis, Khris Middleton, Parker and Monroe are the core of this team, but if you’re playing with a frontcourt of Parker and Monroe you’re conceding that you’re going to be a defensive disaster. Parker is a terrible defender – the Bucks were the best defence in the league with Parker off the floor, with him on it they plummeted to 21st – and Monroe, with his 0.5 blocks a game, isn’t a rim protector.
That’s going to mean a lot of John Henson, who is fine but compromises the offence. Henson and Monroe can’t play together though – that’s too rude a middle finger to offensive spacing.
This team can’t shoot. MCW and Giannis cramp the floor and Parker is unproven. The team needs spacing but won’t be able to find it without severely compromising the defence.
Maybe talent just wins out. Maybe MCW takes a leap into being a competent NBA starter, Parker shows us why he was the number two pick, Giannis’s shot improves and Monroe becomes a serviceable defender now playing his appropriate position of centre. But it’s a lot of question marks. Too many question marks.
Predicted record: 39-43
8. Detroit Pistons
Last season: 32-50, 12th in the East
Key arrivals: Ersan Ilyasova, Stanley Johnson
Key departures: Greg Monroe
Is Reggie Jackson good? The Detroit Pistons have 80 million reasons to hope so. Jackson is a terrible shooter, 29.4 per cent for his career from deep – a.k.a. just 0.9 per cent better than Josh Smith, and he’s a defensive liability. But there is ‘something’ there.
He’s a nifty pick and roll player who can slither his way through the defence. When he was on the court for Detroit the Pistons had a top five offence in the league. In the almost 700 minutes that Jackson shared the floor with dynamic roll man Andre Drummond, Detroit absolutely blitzed opponents.
The hope is that Jackson is just the type of player who needs to be cuddled a little to embrace his full potential. Alienated in OKC, unhappy on the bench and the victim of his own petulance, maybe Jackson just needs to be loved to be effective.
There is something intangible about Jackson that doesn’t show up in the stats. There’s a dynamism and charisma to his movement, a swagger to his play. It’s hard to forget his playoff game against Memphis 18 months ago where he scored 32 points and saved Oklahoma City’s season in the process, outplaying Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook down the stretch.
If Jackson can make the leap to All-Star then the Pistons have a roadmap to the playoffs. Jackson and Drummond will pick and roll teams to death and could become one of the most lethal duos in the league with the spacing that the likes of Ilyasova, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jodie Meeks, Anthony Tolliver and Marcus Morris provide.
The team finally has some depth too, with all those names plus Brandon Jennings, Steve Blake, Aron Baynes and promising rookie Stanley Johnson coming off the bench. The defence is the concern, ranking 20th in the league last season, but a second year in Stan Van Gundy’s system should see that ranking improve.
On paper the names on the roster don’t look overly inspiring but look a little closer and there is a rationality to the construction of this team. Don’t be surprised if the Pistons sneak into the playoffs.
Predicted record: 41-41
7. Boston Celtics
Last season: 40-42
Key arrivals: Amir Johnson, David Lee
Key departures: I don’t think Phil Pressey counts.
11.
That’s my count for the number of respectable NBA rotation players the Boston Celtics have. In a league which features a brutal 82-game schedule, that number is going to count for plenty. The Celtics recipe for winning is simple: they’re really well coached and they have a lot of players who don’t suck. In the Eastern Conference that’s a recipe for a playoff spot.
By net rating Boston was the eighth best team in the league post-All-Star break, finishing the season on a 24-12 tear having replaced Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green with Isiah Thomas, Jae Crowder and better vibes. Brad Stevens is a top seven coach in the league and his team’s effort is rarely questioned.
The Celtics are going to be a freaking nightmare all season for opposing backcourts, with defensive hounds Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley and Crowder living to make life hell for their opponents. Amir Johnson is a hugely underrated pick-up for Boston (on a ridiculously friendly contract too) and will offer some rim protection that the likes of Kelly Olynyk, Jared Sullinger and Tyler Zeller had no hope of providing last year.
Somehow the Celtics had the 12th best defence in the league without a rim protector and having matador Evan Turner play big minutes, and that ranking should only approve with the addition of Johnson, improvement from Smart and a full season of Crowder.
The Celtics aren’t going to make any noise in the playoffs. When Isaiah Thomas is your best player, you are silent in May. But the roster is incredibly deep and ripe to make a trade if a superstar hits the market. If one doesn’t then the Celtics will be plenty competitive regardless, even if it’s competitiveness with a charmingly low ceiling.
Predicted record: 43-39
6. Toronto Raptors
Last season: 49-33
Key arrivals: DeMarre Carroll, Luis Scola
Key departures: Amir Johnson, Lou Williams
It was a tale of two halves for the Raptors last season, starting out a sensational 37-17 and looking like a serious contender in the East before bottoming out 12-20 and becoming an incompetent doormat for the Wizards in the playoffs.
So, what the hell happened? Injuries can be pointed to, with Kyle Lowry missing 12 games in the second half, but the Raptors actually went 6-6 in those games. The more likely explanation is that this team just wasn’t that great in the first place.
Toronto was a putrid defensive team, finishing last year 26th in defensive efficiency. The addition of lockdown perimeter defender DeMarre Carroll will help that, but those gains will be mitigated by the loss of Amir Johnson.
The Raptors will only go as far as Kyle Lowry and Jonas Valanciunas can take them. DeMar DeRozan is what he is, an inefficient but capable scorer who holds his own on defence. Lowry is the team’s best player and when he fell off a cliff in the second half the team went with him (Lowry’s pre-All Star numbers: 18.6 points, 7.2 assists, 42.3 per cent shooting. Lowry’s post-All Star numbers: 15.2 points, 5.4 assists, 37.3 per cent shooting).
Lowry was an abomination in the playoffs, seemingly playing hurt (one would hope). He’s got plenty to prove this year and he’s coming into the season in frighteningly good shape.
Valanciunas is the most interesting case. He’s an All-Star calibre talent, a 7 footer with skill and touch. But the Raptors have been almost comically worse the past three years when he’s been on the floor.
With Johnson no longer stealing his minutes in the frontcourt, and with the security of a long-term extension now locked away, the Raptors will be hoping Jonas can take a leap. If he does, he can vault them into the discussion with teams that will fight to be Cleveland’s understudy in the East. If he doesn’t, this situation could get ugly.
Masai Ujiri isn’t afraid to blow things up and it’s not clear whether Dwayne Casey is a good coach. The most likely outcome is, naturally, that Jonas ends up somewhere in the middle and so did the Raptors, as is becoming their custom.
Predicted record: 46-36
pete bloor
Guest
Thanks Jay, to be clear I’m not saying the Pacers are going to be good, but in the east being middling is going to the playoffs. More than half the teams in the league make the playoffs so I’m not buying the east having all playoff teams above .500. They will be a sugar free, unsalted porridge team of bland aspirations, but It hink that gets them to #8 or 7 in the east. On the PER sure of the top 6 but the 7th guy was 0.5 away from the middling 4th,5th and 6th guys and has a higher WS per 48 than three of the departing. So lets say that’s a wash with the 4th leaving. Monta is higher than everyone leaving as is a real Paul George. So in PER terms you replace one of 4 and improve massively on 2 others. Leaving one drop form a league average to slightly below. I don’t see the cause for concern there. I dare say if we minute weight the replacements that you’ll be net up on PER. Also George has a higher VORP in both of his previous two full seasons than the entire departing cast combined so if we’re throwing around just the numbers tough to see the drop off. Remember that George isn’t coming back from a soft tissue or stress injury he’s coming back from a broken leg, risk of reinjury is low as is any negative effects for mobility. He’s also had a full offseason and some game time last year so he should be athletically ready to go, he’s not in a Derrick Rose, or even the Durant, situation because of the timing and type of injury.
Swampy
Guest
I'm not high on the bucks but it's the east! They are at worst the 6th best team and will strangle weak offensive teams for which the east is loaded. Jabari Parker can score as well. His injury hurt the bucks on offense. The Bucks are also only a trade away from getting a better rotation. Expect them to be actively seeking a trade. Bradley Beal would be a super fit on that team
astro
Guest
That SVG podcast was incredible...also has me genuinely interested in the Pistons! Its a shame that the Morris twins don't come as a package...I'd feel better about their chances if they were both on board (mentally more than physically). For the record, I completely agree with you about Monroe and Parker. Half a block per game is miserable for a starting center in the league...but for some weird reason, I get the sense they might do ok. Keep an eye on OJ Mayo in a contract year and apparently in shape!
Jay Croucher
Expert
That's a good point, Pete. I was pretty shocked that the Pacers had a positive point differential last season. The return of George, a legitimate superstar if healthy, is huge, and Ellis for his many faults is still better than anything they had in the backcourt last season. But these are the reasons I think they're going to drop a couple of wins: 1. The rest of the East is better. The Pacers beat up on the dregs last season, going 17-3 against the Knicks, Magic, 76ers, Hornets and Heat. I think all those teams are going to be better this year. They also went 10-20 against the West last year, showing that they were pretty bad against better opposition. 2. The frontcourt might be the worst in the league. Hibbert and West aren't great but they're competent big men with clearly defined skills. Jordan Hill is a terrible basketball player, Turner is a rookie, and Mahinmi and Allen are journeymen who should be playing 12 minutes a game. I have no idea who is setting screens or rolling to the hoop in pick and roll on this team. 3. There's no depth. PER isn't perfect but it's useful and the Pacers lost 4 of their top 6 PER guys from last season (Scola, West, Hibbert and Watson). I'm not sure who the fourth best player on this team is. Is it Rodney Stuckey? If so that's frightening. If one of George Hill, Ellis or George goes down, this team is in real trouble. The plus-minus points on West and Hibbert are solid and really important. The Pacers were somehow better defensively last year with Hibbert on the bench. Because of that, George's return and Ellis's arrival (and hopefully a good run of health for George Hill), the Pacers could definitely scrape past .500 and be a playoff team. I don't quite see it though.
Jay Croucher
Expert
Thanks astro. The Bucks and Pistons were the two toughest teams I had pegging out of the 30. I think I'm biased by a great podcast that Stan van Gundy did with Zach Lowe, the way he talked about the set-up of the Pistons seduced me a little. In theory I think Detroit makes sense in the modern NBA - a dynamic pick and roll duo surrounded by shooters with an elite defensive mobile big man holding up the paint on the other end. So much depends on Jackson though, which is worrying, although I think he can develop. I think the Bucks are going to be great in the future but this might be a year of growing pains for them. I worry about their spacing and frontcourt defence. Assuming Jabari and Monroe log the bulk of minutes in the frontcourt, it feels like teams with elite penetrating guards and wings - Cleveland, Washington, Miami - are just going to be living in the paint. We'll see though, their upside is significant. Maybe in the modern NBA the length of MCW, Middleton, Giannis and Parker is more important defensively than having a traditional rim protector. They're going to be a lot of fun either way, no doubt.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
I don't know what to make of that Pistons squad. Seems like a strange roster to me.
pete bloor
Guest
Interesting that you think the Pacers will be materially worse this year. Vegas having them at 40.5 wins is about in line with their "expected" win total last year was 42 without a quality starter in sight. I'm not sure the team will miss hibbert and west. Both were trading on reputation last year posting negative real +/- I think their front court is a concern but it would be a concern if they had West and Hibbert as well - and they still cobbled together a positive team +/- last year despite them.
astro
Guest
Great stuff again, Jay, but what an nightmare line up of teams to try and make predictions of! Only point where I (maybe) disagree is the Bucks. Might be a bit of band-wagoning here, but I think Kidd can coach, and he'll eventually find a line up that works. Their young guys like Giannis and MCW should improve (surely MCW has spent his offseason shooting!), and I also think the plus side of both Monroe and Parker, outweighs their downside...Especially with Monroe playing C. And Jabari should be able to cope on defense...The East isn't exactly loaded with dangerous offensive SFs. Either way, I'm intrigued by the Bucks! Also think it'll be incredible if the Pistons make it through the year without imploding. Morris is a head-case without his twin in tow. Reggie in the role as 'the' guy scares me...Agree that he has potential, but he's too streaky for mind. Feels like the Pistions are giving the keys to a guy who is more Jamal Crawford, than Chris Paul. And Ilyasova has been steadily regressing for the past few years, and seems to constantly disappear for long stretches in games. As for the Raptors...who knows! Lowry will be great, and DeMar is DeMar...but I'm worried Carroll was good for the Hawks but might not be as good anywhere else. I also think they'll really miss Amir Johnson. So overall, a few less wins for the Raps for me, and a few more for the Bucks. Keep it up Jay!