The Caulfield Cup wash-up: Can your horse win the Melbourne Cup?

In light of an exciting Caulfield Cup won by a New Zealand-trained, Chinese-owned and Tasmanian-bred Mongolian Khan, we will analyse each horse’s run from the race, and consider whether they are up to Melbourne Cup standard.

Mongolian Khan
The four-year-old received a lovely run two off the fence, forward of midfield. Raced for home early with Our Ivanhowe and beat him off, before having the tenacity to hold off a late challenge from Trip To Paris. Very strong staying performance.

Always doubt any locally-bred horse running two miles, but this horse appears to have the credentials. His trainer believes he is more of a Melbourne Cup horse than a Caulfield Cup horse. Already up in the weights, will be hoping for a light penalty, but this horse has to go into the cup with a strong chance on this performance.

Trip to Paris
Surprisingly for an Ascot Gold Cup (4023m) winner he showed an impressive turn of foot, running the best closing sectionals of the race. Settled back of midfield. Ridden for luck along the inside, he received a relatively trouble-free run apart from a slight baulk from the weakening Set Square. This ensured he could keep his momentum.

It was an outstanding staying performance and will be even better over two miles. Could he be the horse to give Ed Dunlop his first Melbourne Cup win after three times in second? It’d be foolish to leave him out. Brilliant run.

Our Ivanhowe
This Lee and Anthony Freedman-trained import came into the race after a handful of improving efforts under big weights. Trailed the winner and matched motors with him for most of the straight, looking the winner, only running out of condition late.

He is one of the highest-rated horses currently racing in Australia, he showed why with this impressive performance. Has the scope to turn the tables on the winner with an improvement in fitness or change in the weights.

Gust of Wind
The ATC Oaks winner belied an apparent average track gallop against Volkstok’n’barrel earlier in the week with a stout on pace performance. Three pairs back throughout the race, she was held up slightly in the run in to the straight behind Magnapal. Continued to run on strongly to the line, without making ground on the placegetters.

Improving mare who is adaptable – she can race forward or back without any effects on her performance. Should she run the two miles, she’ll be thereabouts.

Snow Sky
Hardwicke Stakes winner who received a lovely run in transit from Damien Oliver, settling in third. Was unlucky to be held up for a run around the corner when the wave crossed on the outside, he was absolutely coasting. When finally clear through the 250 metres however, he only ran on fairly. Had excuses, but expected a bit more from him late.

May be a bit one-dimensional, needing to sustain a long sprint rather than bursting through, especially with the large weight. Inclined to leave out of my selections for the Melbourne Cup.

Fame Game
2015 Tenno Sho runner up. Snagged back from gate one, as per his normal racing style. Trailed Trip For Paris, but didn’t gain the runs he did. Ended up last in the turn to the straight, he weaved through the field and passed horse after horse in the last 150 metres. A barnstorming finish, with sectionals second only to Trip For Paris.

Will be better suited over two miles. The eye-catcher of the field, who may just be the horse to follow most out of this race. Into cup favouritism.

Who Shot Thebarman
Last year’s Melbourne Cup placegetter who had to jump from gate 21, this was no issue early as he was restrained back to last. Sustained a run from the 800m circling the field, widest of all. Unrelenting in the straight, continuing to run through the line.

May lack the class to beat some of the more fancied runners, but he’ll run the two miles strongly and won’t lose through a lack of trying. Apart from Mongolian Khan and Preferment, he may be the best of the locals. Gutsy effort.

Hauraki
ATC Derby placegetter behind Mongolian Khan last autumn who entered the race after a much improved second behind Cox Plate-hope Complacent in the Craven Plate. Only had three trailing him for the majority of the race. Left behind slightly when the sprint went on, but was able to have an unimpeded run to the line along the fence.

Thought he was entitled to run on a bit better than he did, but he wasn’t disappointing by any means. Unsure if they’re going to progress.

Lucia Valentina
Last year’s Caulfield Cup favourite who settled in the last pair. She ran on well prior to the turn and continued to run truly to the line in the finish.

Unsure what her target is for the rest of the spring, but this was a much improved run by this mare. Would be very hard to beat in a Matriarch Stakes.

Hokko Brave
The second of the Japan raiders who was entitled to race three wide in the race after jumping from gate 15. Raced midfield for the majority of the race, Hokko Brave was another that was left behind slightly by the wave of horses who crossed the field at the turn. He never shirked his run to the line, but his brilliance may have been dimmed by covering extra ground throughout the race.

Can’t be ruled out over two miles, but he may find his travelling companion Fame Game a bit better on exposed form.

Grand Marshal
The surprise Sydney Cup winner of the autumn under Jimmy Cassidy was one of the best finishers of the race, albeit in eleventh place. Could have finished as close as fifth with a bit more luck in his final 100 metres. Raced in the last quarter of the field, he wasn’t able to tow his way into the race on the corner, but ran home resolutely in the straight.

He surprised me slightly with how well he ran on. One at odds that could turn a few heads in the Melbourne Cup.

Volkstok’n’barrell
Mongolian Khan’s old sparring partner who has been searching for his best form all prep without much success. Looked set to run a much-improved race with an excellent track gallop in the week leading up to the race. Settled in a beautiful position four pairs back and tracked into the race nicely at the 600m, but he was hopelessly blocked by a weakening Royal Descent. Had to change course to the outside of the field, his closing sectionals were very good.

Has had no luck this preparation, hopefully it turns around in a race like the Mackinnon Stakes.

Rising Romance
David Hayes acquisition from New Zealand. This mare received a cushy run in transit from Damien Lane behind Snow Sky. Produced at the 300m with daylight, she only battled home.

Very disappointing run from a normally consistent mare. Would be surprised if she progressed to the Melbourne Cup off that effort.

Magnapal
The feel good story of the race who received a run due to his Naturalism Stakes win. Managed to get across without too much toil from a wide gate. He raced in second and held his ground early in the straight, but I’m not sure he runs a strong 2400m. Connections should be proud of his effort however. Probably spells after a very successful preparation.

Protectionist
A breathtaking Melbourne Cup winner last season, who has been woeful ever since. Settled well back in the field and came with a mid-race move to threaten on the corner, but he only paddled late, as is his want of late.

Think he’s racing a conservative 6-7 lengths below his outstanding form from his first Australian preparation. Would have to produce a Think Big-like form reversal to threaten in the Melbourne Cup.

Set Square
Last year’s VRC Oaks winner who was a surprise leader in the race. Was rated well by McEvoy in front, but had nothing when the sprint went on. Was a disappointing effort from the normally honest mare, who was improving through her prep previously. Perhaps the blinkers detracted from her performance?

Doubts on her running in the Melbourne Cup.

Magicool
Impressive Queensland Derby winner of the winter who has been racing many legions below his best this spring. This continued with a weakening effort, despite receiving good cover throughout the race. A spell is in order.

Royal Descent
One of our best mares who had legitimate excuses after a tough run from barrier 18 – Glen Boss stated she had the ‘toughest run of all time’. Was beaten by a long way – not sure if she’ll run again this preparation.