The curious case of Tristan Thompson

With the NBA season just over a week away, one of the most prominent storylines from the past few months has been the contract dispute between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Tristan Thompson, their fourth overall pick from 2011.

While Thompson and his agent Rich Paul are demanding a max deal worth $94 million over five years, the Cavaliers have reportedly pulled their offer of $80 million over the same time frame.

The Canadian-born Thompson was phenomenal in the 2014 Playoffs for the Cavaliers, filling in for the injured Kevin Love who had been ruled out with a dislocated left shoulder. He averaged 9.6 points and 10.8 rebounds per game while shooting at an effective 56 per cent from the field.

While these numbers don’t sound too flashy, his persistent activity on the offensive glass and role as a rim protector make him incredibly valuable to the Cavaliers. Just how valuable he is to them is what’s keeping the two parties from agreeing to a new contract.

There are many questions surrounding Thompson’s development as a capable NBA player, the primary concern being the disparity between his offensive repertoire and defensive prowess. It was only two seasons ago that he decided to switch shooting hands in an effort to improve his shooting percentage.

While his free throw percentage increased by a relatively substantial eight per cent, his overall field goal percentage remained unchanged.

Switching shooting hands was something of an anomaly in NBA history as noted by Jerry Colangelo, the executive director of USA Basketball when he sat down with Michael Grange of Sportsnet.

“There are a lot of players who work hard so they can finish equally well with both hands, but as far as changing the hands they shoot with? I’ve never heard of that. That’s 1-in-1000 right there.”

The majority of Thompson’s points come from offensive rebounds, his excellent positioning allowing him to recover the ball and immediately put it back into the cylinder. This past season, he ranked fourth in offensive rebound percentage and fifth in total offensive rebounds across the entire NBA, only behind players such as Andre Drummond, Tyson Chandler, DeAndre Jordan and Enes Kanter.

While this is certainly one of his strengths, his offence doesn’t extend much beyond this. Of all the shots he took throughout the 2014-15 season, Thompson only attempted 8.8 per cent of those between 10 feet and the three-point line. Due to his limited range, defences are able to sit off him and dare him to shoot the ball. So why exactly is Thompson trying to command so much money?

From a purely statistical standpoint, Tristan Thompson is playing at the same level as JJ Hickson in the 2012-13 season, who averaged 12.7 points and 10.4 rebounds per game throughout a contract year. This yielded a $16 million deal over three years for Hickson, whose production has been slowly declining along with his minutes.

At the time, Hickson was one of only seven players to average double digits in both scoring and rebounding. He was in the rather decorated company of Dwight Howard, Nikola Vucevic and Al Horford to name a few.

Many would argue that Thompson has a much higher ceiling than Hickson. However in an analytics heavy NBA world it is clear that Thompson does not provide much outside of offensive rebounding and finishing inside the paint.

Another reason why the Cavaliers would be reluctant to sign Thompson to a max deal would be the fact that they have another four forwards on $10 million-plus contracts. To a lesser extent, position wise, LeBron James on $48 million but importantly Timofey Mozgov ($14 million, three years), Anderson Varejao ($30 million, three years) and Kevin Love ($113 million, five years). Despite the cap being set to increase with the new television deal, there is still a lot of money being spent on players who do essentially the same thing as Thompson.

In regards to on-court production, the most influential player in the Cavaliers decision whether to keep Thompson or not would have to be Love. Before being traded to the Cavs for Andrew Wiggins and Anthony Bennet, Love was averaging 26.1 points along with 12.5 rebounds per game while shooting 46 per cent from the field.

Perhaps most importantly, he shot a respectable 38 per cent from the three point line while attempting 6.6 per game. In direct contrast to Thompson’s shooting statistics, Love attempted an astounding 60 per cent of his shots between 10 feet and the three-point line.

In the 75 games played with the Cavaliers, Love’s production naturally dropped off as he soon became the third option on a team stacked with All Star calibre players. He played through an almost endless amount of scrutiny and drama over the course of the season, from being benched in fourth quarters by head coach David Blatt to being left out of LeBron’s pictures on Instagram.

Despite the constant headaches, he still contributes more than Thompson per 36 minutes and most would expect his production to either remain the same or improve as he builds further chemistry with his new team.

Finally, another interesting factor in the negotiations between the two parties would have to be Thompson’s agent Rich Paul. Rather conveniently for Thompson, Paul is also the agent for one of the game’s biggest players in LeBron James, who recently commented on the impasse of negotiations.

“I try not to get involved in that, as far as what the team is speaking on or talking about. It’s basically more on a personal level, asking him how he’s doing and if his mind is right and things of that nature.”

“There’s a lot of things that’s much bigger than basketball, even though I know he would love to be here right now and we would love to have him here, but I kind of stray away from that.”

In a recent Instagram post, LeBron pleaded with Thompson to “get it done” and it’s now onto Paul who needs to ensure Thompson signs a new contract while also appeasing LeBron.

By playing hardball with Paul, the Cavaliers put themselves in a tough predicament. Not only is there a chance that Thompson leaves the Cavs but Paul will undoubtedly be in the ear of LeBron when his current contract finishes. While it’s highly unlikely that James will leave Cleveland (again), the Cavs won’t be willing to take that risk.

At the end of the day, Cavs management need to decide whether they want to offer a max contract to a player who is going to be coming off the bench. While Thompson is adept at offensive rebounding, he provides little else for the team, especially with Love returning from surgery and being expected to resume his normal production.

While Thompson certainly has the potential to develop into a capable NBA starter on a championship team, the Cavs have already invested too much money into their frontcourt. Thompson might be worth a max contract, just not for the Cavaliers.