The Troy Menzel trade was the exclamation mark on one of the the worst months of player movement in a single AFL club’s history. All things considered, Carlton have done lots of things, but precisely nothing to start a rebuild that the club so sorely needs.
Carlton have the worst list in the AFL, of that there is no doubt.
When I had a look at their playing stocks in June, what I found was a capped-out, old, strikingly mediocre bunch of bench scrubs, depth players and good-not-great stars,
The re-arrival of Stephen Silvagni, the supposed architect of Greater Western Sydney’s list build, and departure of much of the previous football administration which plied their trade in the Mick Malthouse era, bought with it the promise of a new direction. The fawning over his return was a white stallion short of a medieval fairytale.
(Just quietly, I reckon a 12-year-old with a box of crayons could have built a decent list out of 12 underage pre-listed players and 11 top 15 picks in a pretty deep draft.)
Well, that lasted all of four months. Make no mistake, Carlton have had an absolutely dreadful trade period, and done almost exactly the opposite of what they should have done as far as recalibrating their list goes.
The simplest way to go about this is to split out their activity into player movements and draft pick movements. This is what the trade period has yielded the Navy Blues in net player terms, including pre-October retirements and delistings.
Out
Matthew Watson, Blaine Johnson, Cameron Giles, Fraser Russell, Chris Judd, Andrew Carrazzo, David Ellard, Lachie Henderson, Tom Bell, Menzel.
In
Sam Kerridge, Lachie Plowman, Jed Lamb, Andrew Phillips, Liam Sumner.
You can probably add Chris Yarran to that list of outs before the end of today, too.
Carlton have lost two of their best young players in Tom Bell (in large part for reasons outside of football) and Menzel, and two above average, prime-age players in Yarran and Lachie Henderson.
The losses of Chris Judd and Andrew Carrazzo were at worst neutral propositions as far as list building goes, given both were 32 and a near zero chance of being AFL standard players by the time the Blues are next contending. The delisted deadwood is nothing more than that.
In their place come Sam Kerridge from Adelaide, and a pu-pu platter of Greater Western Sydney players that couldn’t make the team on a regular basis.
The fact that the Giants gave Carlton their 2015 first round pick as part of this deal, and that these four players are moving to the same place that the guy who recruited them just moved to, should send a shiver down the spine of every Carlton fan.
But wait! It’s all about the draft picks, right? Their draft position looks a little like this:
Before trade: 1, 20, 39, 57, 75, 93, 113
After trade: 1, 8, 20, 21, 59, 60, 113
Again, you can probably add either pick 12 or pick 19 to that list of after-trade picks once the Yarran deal goes through today, which it surely will.
That’s an improvement from two picks inside the top 20 to four, an improvement in pick 39 to pick 21, and a shuffle of the deck chairs in rounds four onwards. That’s not terrible, and indeed if Carlton end up with Richmond’s pick 12 for Yarran instead of pick 19 – an outside chance, but come 1:45pm in Melbourne, the Tigers may just pull the trigger – they will enter the 2015 draft with the most draft capital of any team in the league.
But if this was about the draft, why would Carlton on-trade Geelong’s 2016 first round pick, bought in as part of the Henderson deal, to the Giants, in order to improve their standing in this year’s draft?
Surely having an additional first rounder guaranteed heading into next year’s draft – which we’re told by those in the know projects as better in the raw talent stakes than 2015 – is better than cramming it all into one year?
I digress. This Carlton rebuild was always going to take time. But at its current pace, it will be glacial. There could be something multi-year at play here. But I suspect there isn’t.
By my reckoning, Carlton had two very clear choices: take the hard road and clean out the top end of the list, or the easy one by moving arguably better assets to get a slightly better haul of draft picks. They chose the latter.
The Blues entered the 2015 season with an average player age of 24.9 across their entire 46 player list (including rookies). Right now, before a couple more delistings and the advent of new draftees, the Blues will enter 2016 with an average player age of 24.5.
In reality, this will likely fall closer to 24 once we’re at the final list lodgement deadline of December 1. This will still put the Blues in the middle range of the league when all said and done.
That’s across the whole list, though. At the top of the age tree sit 10 players aged 28 or older, which is where Hawthorn, Sydney, North Melbourne and Fremantle fit on the age curve.
The list profile has not radically shifted. All that has happened in this trade period is that the Blues have lost some good, young talent that’s just about to enter its collective prime, replaced it with the leftover depth talent of an expansion franchise, and taken a punt on a shallow draft.
The administration re-signed Matthew Kreuzer for just long enough that if he’s lucky – and he’s due some luck – he can play a couple of good, injury free years, and scamper to a premiership contender as an unrestricted free agent in 2017.
They are umming and ahhing over Dennis freaking Armfield.
Carlton’s core of Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs and Dale Thomas will go around again, and for all intents and purposes be marking time while this gamble on the 2015 draft plays out in the years ahead.
Thomas will be the Mick Malthouse era’s albatross, hanging around the neck of what’s left of the previous board and football department administrators as a reminder of decisions past. He’ll be good, but if Carlton knew this is where things would end up just two years into a five-year, $3.5 million contract, they may have reconsidered both the tenure and value of that deal.
But you can’t tell me Murphy and Gibbs would command anything less than a first round pick from a middle of the rung team looking for a proven prime mover through the middle of the ground.
If you’re going to be terrible, why keep these guys around? Surely one, or both, must move in 2016 – another year older, another year of mediocrity holding them back, eating away at their trade value.
Carlton had four very good players aged 24 or under coming into this trade period: Bell, Menzel, Blaine Boekhurst and Patrick Cripps. They traded two of them away.
You think the Blues had a good trade period? Spare me. They have gone backwards, remarkably so, without any prospect of moving forwards.
Macca
Guest
Yep - but we got that deal AND kept Gibbs for another year to help with the development of the likes of Cripps and Cuningham. Given we missed Murphy for most of the year what a disaster it would have been for the blues to not have Gibbs running around!!
The Original Buzz
Guest
I said in another article that your opinion of trading Gibbs, Kruezer and a few others has come to fruition. T o be honest, Gibbs has never been an AA, been the B&F once at Carlton and has been a good b grade player, nothing more. As someone pointed out, it is not hard to be a good player in a poor team. Now that I have had a good look at what they are possibly getting for him, pick 13 and Jarrod Lyons is more than what he is worth. I can see Lyons developing into a player that is at he least, as good or better than Gibbs.
The Original Buzz
Guest
12 months on, I am no longer baffled. Good call, Carlton.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
Gibbs to Adelaide for their 2016 first round pick and a player. There it is folks.
Bill
Guest
A horrible article at the time and you've been proven completely incorrect after this season
keith
Guest
Ryan Buckland history is proving you a fool.
Macca
Guest
Hey Rya, I have something for you to think about before you write that article, do you think Yarran and Menzel (or Henderson for that matter) would apply the relentless pressure and application that the new recruits have done?
Theo
Guest
A good biased article doesn't necessarily mean an accurate or enjoyable one. Lots of mis-analysis and innuendos. Our top end talent is as good as anyones in the competition. We are however lacking lots of depth and don't sacrifice this top end for a couple of maybe. SOS sacrifices a youngster for lots of high probables to mend that depth. Will SOS do it again this year, remains to be seen.. We have a good nucleus of high potential youngsters coming through. Jaksch, Buckley, Silvagni, Curnow, McKay, Graham, Cunningham, Byrne, McGlasker Will be good if we can top up these youngsters with three top 30 picks this year
Macca
Guest
Ryan - Just on the GWS scrubs here are some stats Jed Lamb - career ave disposals to end of 2015 = 10 2016 = 12.8 (28% increase) Goals career to 2015= 0.77 2016 0.9 (17% increase) Lachie Plowman - Disposal to 2015 = 10. 2016 = 12.4 (24% increase) Marks to 2015 = 2.95 2016 = 4.1 (39% increase). You sure you expected that increase in output? Throw in Sumner (above career ave for disposal, tackles and shots on goal), Phillips (up on hit outs, goals, marks and tackles) and of course Kerridge (50% up on disposals and MArks and up on tackles) and the trade for Menzel who is still playing SANFL looks pretty good.
Macca
Guest
Ryan - "Like I said earlier in the year I do plan on getting to Carlton at some point in the first half of the year" true but you also said earlier in the year that you wouldn't write another article about the blues so who knows what to believe. "The GWS scrubs aren’t adding a great deal more than anyone would have expected them to" hmmm - you do realise that your comments indicating what you "expected" the GWS scrubs to deliver is in the article right above us right? let me refresh your memory - "In their place come Sam Kerridge from Adelaide, and a pu-pu platter of Greater Western Sydney players that couldn’t make the team on a regular basis. The fact that the Giants gave Carlton their 2015 first round pick as part of this deal, and that these four players are moving to the same place that the guy who recruited them just moved to, should send a shiver down the spine of every Carlton fan." You really want to go with the argument they are simply playing to your expectation? really? "the guys that I thought had the most trade value for Carlton are all living up to that. Bryce Gibbs could finish on 20+ Brownlow votes if he keeps playing as he has in the first 10 weeks." A couple of things on this - if this turns out to be the case do you think Gibbs has more trade value now than he did at the end of 2015? and 2 why would the blues want to trade a player of Gibbs quality when he has at least 5 years left on the clock for a draft pick risk? Third - if the blues had of traded this top end talent wouldn't they now be being belted week in week out - how would that have been good for the likes of Cripps, Docherty, C Curnow, Weitering et el? Finally - you summation of that the blues success is down to a good coach, the top end talent performing and B grade players applying " relentless pressure and application" is exactly the recipe for success that every team aspires to. Look forward to the article.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
Oh Macca, you're my favourite Roarer. Like I said earlier in the year I do plan on getting to Carlton at some point in the first half of the year. That could be this Thursday if time permits, but if not it'll be a longer piece for Wednesday fortnight (15 June). For now though, my take is Brendon Bolton is actually Football Jesus, and the guys that I thought had the most trade value for Carlton are all living up to that. Bryce Gibbs could finish on 20+ Brownlow votes if he keeps playing as he has in the first 10 weeks. The GWS scrubs aren't adding a great deal more than anyone would have expected them to, and the Blues are still relying on guys that have shown to be B-grade players. The Blues are winning with relentless pressure and application, which is great to see from a side that was so listless last season. Starting 5-5 with a percentage of 81.0 is a feat in itself, which I'll get to next week. A journey of 1,000,000 miles starts with the smallest steps. The Blues have made a few big leaps, on account of Brendon Bolton and the top end talent, but there's still 985,000 miles to go.
Macca
Guest
Buzz - Smith and Viojo- Rainbow would be safe - both are only in their second years which means they have only had 1 full pre-season. Gorringe won't go after just one year, especially seeing he is just 23 and big blokes take a while. To me Armfield is 29, White 27, Jamsion 29, Wood 29 and Walker is 30 - these are the blokes in the gun as they are role players who won't be around for the good times but a good enough (generally) to get the blues some value - even if it is just a third round pick.
The Original Buzz
Guest
Try again, it wouldn't let me finish and I can't edit the comment. I find it hard to see who they will trade this year, I will wait until the end of the season to see who is likely to go. Jamison is a one club player and still has value to the Blues. Armfield is improving so maybe not him. White is a likely candidate and maybe Walker. I think they will drop the players like Smith, Viojo-Rainbow and maybe even Woods who haven't made the team this year and are unlikely to. Jones and Gorringe maybe?
The Original Buzz
Guest
How wrong you are, Jeff. The Blues went over a cliff, I agree with that, but they have opened their wings and are flying now.
Macca
Guest
"Armfield and the recruits from the other teams (GWS, Crows) are having a cracker so far, as are a few of the other regulars and even the draftees." Anoterh player Ryan would have had us trade away, Andrejs Everitt, has recovered from a slow start to the year to now be averaging a career high 2.2 goals per game (up on last years then career high of 1.4) on the same number of possessions (15.2 per game). 2018 GF call might be a little premature though Buzz, but with Charlie Curnow having impressed before illness, Jack SIlvagni doing very well in the 2's and Harry McKay looking to get back to playing not long after the bye we have some quality players ready to make an impact before we even get to this years draft where I expect the blues will try to extract value out of the likes of White, Armfield, Walker, Jamison et el (even if it is just points).
The Original Buzz
Guest
I would be interested, especially with the Blues sitting 5-5 with the possibility of going 7-5 and getting into the eight. I t might be a brief foray towards finals but but better than anyone could have guessed. A few people said they could make 12th and I thought they might be a bit too optimistic. I am glad I was wrong on that count. Armfield and the recruits from the other teams (GWS, Crows) are having a cracker so far, as are a few of the other regulars and even the draftees. Menzel and Yarran are yet to play a game for their respective clubs so our trading this year has been exceptional in my opinion. All of a sudden, a crack at the 2018 GF is not such a huge leap. Unlikely but who knows, definitely not me anymore.
Macca
Guest
I have been asking Ryan for a while now if he wants to reassess his pre-season comments Ozman but have been met with stony silence apart from the assurance he will be the first to admit if he is wrong. You might enjoy this article while you are waiting for Ryan. http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/afl-2016-blue-heaven--why-its-time-to-rerate-the-carlton-list-20160529-gp6twv.html
ozman
Guest
Ryan, Perhaps you should do a Carlton update, now that the Blues are 5-5 and having knocked over one of the premiership contenders with only 20 available men a for more than three quarters. Your comments on now on Menzel, Yarran, Armfield, Murphy, Gibbs, Kreuzer, and the GWS boys would be much appreciated.
Macca
Guest
Hey Ryan - I know it’s just a NAB cup game but this is worth thinking about – last night Sam Kerridge had 28 disposals (17 contested) 6 tackles and 6 clearances (might be slightly wrong on the clearances and tackles as I can’t find the stats this morning and am working from memory) by comparison in Troy Menzels last 3 games combined for the blues (against Melbourne, GWS and Hawthorn) he had 26 possessions (9 contested), 5 tackles, 0 clearances and 0 goals. Maybe the blues trade period wasn't as bad as you thought?
Macca
Guest
Yeah can't wait Buzz.