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After watching Scotland almost dispatch the Wallabies, I’m dispensing with a one-eyed approach and predicting that the semi-final cruncher between the All Blacks and Springboks at Twickenham on Saturday is, well, anyone’s game.
I am an All Black supporter, but for once we the fans – just as the team itself – know they are in for one heck of a contest.
I am interested to see how the Boks try to put the brakes on Julian ‘The Bus’ Savea. The Jonah Lomu-like figure, who knocked over three Frenchmen on the way to scoring one of his three scintillating tries in their quarter-final last Saturday, must know he will be a marked man.
I remember how Bok winger James Small, given the task of keeping New Zealand’s incredible hulk at bay in 1995, managed to successfully quell the Lomu machine so that he was not really a factor in the Ellis Park final.
My guess is that the Boks will wave tackle Savea – commit at least two players to bringing him down – and use that as a basis to snuff him out of the game.
It will still be tough however, because Savea makes impressive carries, even when he is not dotting down.
This could then serve as the ideal opportunity, because if the Boks are committing numbers to stop Savea, it could open up gaps.
Against France, the All Blacks played in sixth gear for just about the entire match. Can they repeat this kind of performance? Will the Boks let them?
I’m afraid that the same high-paced approach might not come off, as the Boks – having seen what the Kiwi machine is capable of when fully on song – will be ready to slow things down.
The Boks are likley to use ‘heavies’ like Schalk Burger, Damien de Allende, Duane Vermeulen and Bismarck du Plessis to stifle the All Blacks and deny their backs the expansiveness they thrive on.
If things are not in synch these full-throttle approaches can backfire. If the All Blacks throw the ball around with abandon, the Springboks will punish a knock on, dicey pass, or intercept.
With brutes like du Plessis, Burger, Tendai Mtawarira, de Allende and Lood de Jager in the mix, the Boks have few equals when it comes to getting to the gainline. Heyneke Meyer’s gameplan is to play it the South African way – in the forwards.
And if the forwards lay the platform, they have the backs to do the job. Guys like Jesse Kriel, de Allende, Bryan Habana, pivot Handre Pollard and JP Pietersen can exploit any gaps.
The Boks held their own at breakdowns and scrums in the previous Rugby Championship match, and can effect penalties, which could upset the All Blacks’ structures and tactical patterns.
Fetchers Francois Louw and Burger will be giving it all they’ve got around the fringes to deny their opposition sight of the ball. The Boks are also using the rolling maul to good effect and it’s a weapon they could use if they are awarded penalties and can kick towards the corner flags.
Perhaps the Boks’ biggest concern is their renowned habit of losing focus in the last five to 10 minutes. The All Blacks’ conditioning is superb, as shown by their annihilation of the French. New Zealand’s ability to run teams flat in the last 15 to 20 minutes is an important string to their bow.
The All Blacks’ mobility and backline skills, aligned to the fact they play the game at a terrific tempo as and when they see fit, could prove too much for the Boks.
The All Blacks are masters of sucking in the opposition and working quick ball through the hands to open up gaps. The midfield pairing of Conrad Smith and Ma’a Nonu are workhorses who can cut through defences and take on gaps.
The breakdown will be a ferocious affair and strongmen like Jerome Kaino, inspirational captain Richie McCaw, Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock will be asking serious questions of the Bok pack.
The All Blacks have tremendous mobility around the fringes, and their supporting players seize gaps and find players on the outside. Scrumhalf Aaron Smith is superb at foraging for quick ball and releasing his backs as quick as a flash. His box kicks are improving and his duel with Fourie du Preez will be captivating to say the least.
The substitutes bench is going to play a crucial role in this match. Sonny Bill Williams adds a new dimension to the All Blacks’ bench, as does Graham Kerr-Barlow. However the Boks have a very effective bench too.
It comes down to the Boks trying to run through players, while the All Blacks will be looking to run around the opposition with slick handling, skill and an eye for the gap.
These two contrasting styles will make for an absorbing contest.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.