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Anti-Fame Game: Why he won't win the Melbourne Cup

Fame Game looks a good bet in the big one. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Roar Rookie
27th October, 2015
15
4946 Reads

I’d be interested in the view of fellow Roarers with this one. The hype for Fame Game has been unrelenting since July, but here are some valid reasons why he won’t win the Melbourne Cup.

Firstly, his performance and aura is based on his race in the Tenno Sho in May, yet in that race all the horses carried 58 kilograms. Fame Game only came second, and he wasn’t miles ahead of the field.

He only beat Hokko Brave by a little more than a length. The Melbourne Cup on the other hand is a handicap race. Horses with lighter weights have a real chance, and that turn of foot he showed in May in comparison to the rest of the field may not be such a threat on Cup Day.

His Caulfield Cup performance coming from last to sixth was impressive, but he wasn’t the fastest horse in the final stages. Trip To Paris had faster sectional times.

Fame Game has also not won a race since January. And that was a Group 3 race…

It may be too early to predict the weather, but thunderstorms are likely to happen this weekend. If the track is soft on Cup Day, this will probably hamper his performance, as he is a stayer with performances based on mainly firm tracks.

Fame Game’s aura is also based on the 2006 Cup result, where the Japanese horses came first and second. The 2006 field was a much lesser quality than this year’s field which comprises multiple Group 1 winners on the international stage.

Lastly, perception versus reality. When people are saying something is a ‘sure thing’ it usually doesn’t happen. Favourites only win the Cup on average once every five years.

Valid reasons? What are your thoughts, Roarers?

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